The Sisyphean Gambler

[slingshot]

After reading all this, I'm so glad video poker is programmed in hot and cold cycles to simulate randomness-that way I don't have to worry about all these figures.

[arcimede$]

Well, Arc, if drawing a card were a 99% probability things would be different. But in video poker there is no 99% probability of drawing any card. And this is the reason why I like win goals -- because there is no guarantee that when you do get lucky that you will keep getting lucky. So take the money and run.

Confusion is your middle name. No one claims there's a 99% chance of drawing any card. It's quite silly that you even bring it up. Where the probabilities become your good friend is when you are smart enough to find a big edge. That's the reason I have won so many years. When you have a big edge you can give yourself a great chance at winning. What do I do when I don't have a big edge? I don't play.

[Alan Mendelson]

I think the big edge you claim to have is a figment of your imagination. I think you got lucky, and you are mistaking your luck for your skill.

Your "edge" is what, one-half of one percent? Well, bad luck (variance if you want to call it that) can easily wipe out any "edge" you have.

Which is why any sane player will recognize that if they get lucky and beat the casino they will take the money and run, then fight their battle again another day.

Not everyone is a Super Player like Arcimedes... the Casino Super Hero!!!

If everything you post is to defend your continuous playing without seeing a reason to pocket wins and quit playing then perhaps you are addicted.

I think leaving with a win is an excellent reason to quit playing.

[arcimede$]

I've played with an edge over 1% most of the time and often 2.5% or more. With a 2% edge you will have a >90% chance of winning every year (if you get in a reasonable number of hands) even with high variance.

I explained this to you on LVA a long time ago.

[Alan Mendelson]

Question for you Arc: Since you maintain you have a theoretical edge of as much as 2.5% how do you figure income taxes into your theoretical edge? Depending on your tax bracket, tax deductions, adjusted gross income after Schedule A, you might face a tax of 15% to 25% or more on your video poker profits. That would kill a 1% casino edge down to .75%.

My point is a 1% edge or a 2.5% edge isn't enough. But a player who cashes out when they have attained a 5% win goal or 10% win goal actually stands a chance. And so playing for the theoretical edge (your long term play) of 1% to 2.5% is merely running around the merry-go-round without ever climbing on it to enjoy the ride.

Rob Singer is making more and more sense to me with his win goal system.

[Rob.Singer]

And don't forget Alan, arci has been playing that "+EV" oej game "for a profit" at that 100% fair Indian casino up in that super-desireable year-round mecca--Minnesota--for over a dozen years now, while always religiously using his slot club card that allows the casino to track his every move. Yet just like Bob Dancer, he can not only beat the heck out of the machines--he rapes the slot club for all it's worth, and they continue to invite him in to get more freebies and money at his convenience! What's interesting is how these casinos can't figure out how to make a profit off of these super players, and their answer is to just "look the other way"!

Answer your question yet?

[Alan Mendelson]

You know Rob, I don't doubt Arc makes money. I wonder if he'd make MORE MONEY if he knew the right time to cash out??

[Rob.Singer]

Believing a person, who lives a virtual life on the Internet, makes money like he claims to at an Indian casino that has only a few certain type machines he plays, and who has never adjusted away from using a slot club card, is the same thing as believing in someone who says they continuously file claims saying they don't receive UPS shipments left at their door--and the delivery service gleefully accepts how they can't figure out how to make a profit off of him while continuing to deliver packages that go missing without changing a thing.

These places are all businesses, only there to make money from their customers. When they know they aren't, the customer quickly becomes a former customer. I found this out when I investigated hyped but phony guru-claims of being banned and their even more favorite label--being "backed down from slot club benefits" during my time at Gaming Today....and then, personally when I myself was banned from two casinos, and an even more recent one just yesterday. If you use a slot club card and the casino doesn't make a profit off of you, you will not be allowed to play there again. It is a simple business concept that is well understood in the business world, and especially the casino business.

I've been to the Silverton about 7 times since we've been in Pahrump. It's the closest casino in LV to us--right down the road really about 55 miles. ALL of their restaurants are top notch, and our favorite is their Twin Creeks Steakhouse. I take my wife there almost every month. It's easy-in/easy-out, and we just drive home afterwards.

What's also nice about Silverton is they have LOTS of machines with 25c/50c/$1/$2 SDBP on them, and I always play a little before dinner if Cindy doesn't mind. And I've always won, usually getting one or more W2G's because of Aces or J's, Q's or K's. I've had a 50c royal too, but the other night I connected on a $2 royal, giving me over a $9700 profit for the evening.

Yesterday I received a call from them, telling me I was not allowed to play there any more. They didn't care one bit about the silly slot club stuff--they just can't have me at their machines anymore when they can't make money off of me. I asked if I can come in for the restaurants and was told yes, and that's all I really care about. I know how business goes, so if I want to play then I'll just go elsewhere. I don't rant and complain and make a big deal about it. I know it will happen to ANY player who regularly beats them. I read recently where Dancer goes in their monthly and runs a quarter million thru what he calls "their positive machines" (obviously, something he creates out of thin air just to get slot club status). Now you tell me: if a schmuk, now no-name gambler like myself gets stopped for winning maybe 16 or 17k in 7 or 8 months, what do you think is happening to Mr. Big?

These are the type of columns I used to write for the paper, and these are the type of common sense, real life reports that made me the most trusted and popular writer ever at Gaming Today. If I were to publish this today, I guarantee you that, once again, Dancer's boss Jeffrey Compton, would be waddling into the publisher's office ranting & raving about how much I'm hurting his business, and add in another threatened lawsuit. Of course the reason there were no lawsuits is because I always wrote the truth that was backed up by obtained written facts that I always gave to the editor, and the fact that I said I'd cover all the costs of a countersuit.

There's a lot of history I have that anyone can learn a lot from if they can ever shake the stigma as planted by those who've over-commercialized this business. I've accomplished basically everything I set out to. If the younger generation of players wants to succeed, they know where to go and what to read.

[arcimede$]

And don't forget Alan, arci has been playing that "+EV" oej game "for a profit" at that 100% fair Indian casino up in that super-desireable year-round mecca--Minnesota--for over a dozen years now, while always religiously using his slot club card that allows the casino to track his every move. Yet just like Bob Dancer, he can not only beat the heck out of the machines--he rapes the slot club for all it's worth, and they continue to invite him in to get more freebies and money at his convenience! What's interesting is how these casinos can't figure out how to make a profit off of these super players, and their answer is to just "look the other way"!

Answer your question yet?

One little problem with your theory, dufus ... the casinos where I play are still using an old tracking system. Card pulling works.

Why is it you are always wrong?

[arcimede$]

You know Rob, I don't doubt Arc makes money. I wonder if he'd make MORE MONEY if he knew the right time to cash out??

Of course I would. I'd also make more money if I knew what days to play. All it takes is that vision of the future.

For those of us who live in this Universe we have to deal with objective reality. No one knows what is going to happen. All we can do is give ourselves the best chance at success. Only complete fools think the laws of mathematics are for other people.

Just like the nonsense you wrote above about a 2.5% edge not being "enough" ... you continue to spew more nonsense. I do wonder what it's like to live in such a world. A world where mathematics and physics are optional. I also wonder why you haven't adopted your supposedly better approach and made a fortune. What are you waiting for?

[Alan Mendelson]

Of course I would. I'd also make more money if I knew what days to play. All it takes is that vision of the future.

Thanks for posting Arc. Even though we disagree I appreciate your comments, so keep 'em coming.

I think that anyone who has played any game in a casino for any length of time recognizes that there are winning periods and losing periods. In craps, players know that after a good roll by one shooter, it may be a while before another good shooter comes along. Or, after a shooter has held the dice for 20 minutes, it's time to scale back the bets because the eventual 7-out is coming. Why is it that craps players can play that way -- and leave with a profit -- but video poker players can't? The math in craps is the same as it is in video poker!

I know the answer, of course. Craps players realize that there is more to gambling than just math. You Arc don't see it that way. I am just applying some of these good ideas that other gamblers use at craps at video poker. And the funny thing is Rob Singer who says he never played craps has the same ideas.

I can't see the future except that I know that at some point the good run will end. And I like the idea of ending the run on my terms and not on the casino's terms which is when I'm out of money. There is nothing wrong with saying "I won a hundred bucks tonight and I'm going home."

You look at it a different way. You say -- but if I kept playing I could hit a royal. True, but you could also lose that hundred dollars of profit, couldn't you.

And a 2.5% edge is not enough. If that's enough to make you happy after you pay your taxes, well good for you. But you could do better than 2.5% on any number of other speculations including selling covered call options on stock. Yes, we discussed that before on LVA too.

And surprise, I have started to adopt several of Rob's money management strategies and they are helping. I've learned that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... or in casino terms... a $500 win is worth more than dreaming about a royal. In fact, I've just about given up my quest for royals. Now, quad jacks, queens or kings on Aces and Faces will do me just fine. I'll leave the royals to everyone else... like Jason who hit four in one weekend at Caesars (two weeks ago) and my wife who hit one two nights ago (her second this year with only two sessions in casinos).

[Rob.Singer]

Since my good buddy couldn't explain the facts, he came up with the old card-pulling trick. Well, too bad that one's out the door too!

I wrote an article for Gaming Today after the so-called AP's were trying so hard to answer this same phenomena I also exposed in an article about how they are always saying they are winning and not being stopped. Well, I interviewed the top two card reader manufacturers along with the casino managers at the Mirage, Ramada Express (now Tropicana Express), downtown's Golden Nugget, and Sahara. The manufacturers both said once a vp hand is played or a slot handle is pulled, the play is identified in the system thru its entirety--and that it has always been that way. The casino managers just luaghed at the thought of these self-proclaimed experts of video poker pretending to know all about a casino's system. And this was in 2001.

Now, I wonder what Dancer says these days....now that arci makes believe his Indian casino is the only one who uses the "old" readers while LV casinos are onto these "sharpshooters" !?

Try again.

[arcimede$]

Alan, as I explained to your before, the edge in VP is on every bet. If you put $20K through the machines in a day your average profit will be 2.5% of that $20K. That's $500 a day. Play 5 days a week and 50 weeks a years nets out to $125K/year. And, unlike your options it would likely only vary by no more than $25K/year.

Now, about the only ones who can find that kind of edge these days are pros like Frank with a network of connections. Also, to put through that $20K for someone like Frank would probably take only 2-3 hours a day on average. If they find enough opportunities they could triple that amount.

Yes, they have to pay taxes just like everyone else. So what, you also pay taxes on investments.

[arcimede$]

Now, I wonder what Dancer says these days....now that arci makes believe his Indian casino is the only one who uses the "old" readers while LV casinos are onto these "sharpshooters" !?

Try again.

No need for me to try again. You once again make claims based on your abundant lack of knowledge ... which, of course, is why you are such a dufus. The machines I play are not IGT machines. They are 15 year old machines that cannot be upgraded to use the more recent tracking systems. In fact, I have to play all my freeplay on other machines.

Do you enjoy making a fool of yourself or does it just come so naturally you can't help it?

[Rob.Singer]

That's a good one, and is probably the reason we're able to enjoy ourselves in retirement whole you are stuck on a keyboard.

Here's the next part of your education: IGT doesn't write the software for the readers. Yes....those darn facts always seem to get in the way! The two companies that did in 2001 that I interviewed serviced every game manufacturer.

That punch card era....gee, what a letdown!

Now what's your next lie....or are you going to keep showing your frustration by more name-calling? May I suggest stepping outside for a great big breath of fresh air first, that is, if you're allowed to

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, as I explained to your before, the edge in VP is on every bet...

Now, about the only ones who can find that kind of edge these days are pros like Frank with a network of connections.

There;s another hole in your argument Arc. I don't think you are part of Frank's team. I'm certainly not. I just play 8/5 Aces and Faces or 8/5 Bonus. That's the real world.
Now if you found one of these magic machines, well good for you.

And there are also a few magic dice shooters who can influence the dice. There is also a magic golfer like Tiger Woods who can influence the golf ball. There was a magic baseball pitcher named Sandy Koufax....

The rest of us have to manage reality. And as part of that management of reality, I like the idea that quitting while ahead guarantees a profit.

Edited to add: Oh, Frank told me something very interesting when I had lunch with him a couple months back. He told me that in about the last 15 years he never made a bet with his own money. He only bet other people's money, or managed teams. He also told me he would never bet with his own money. That tells me a lot. Is that something like the shoemaker's son who has no shoes? Or the shoemaker himself has no shoes? Either way, it makes me question all of his expert guidance.

[arcimede$]

That's a good one, and is probably the reason we're able to enjoy ourselves in retirement whole you are stuck on a keyboard.

Here's the next part of your education: IGT doesn't write the software for the readers. Yes....those darn facts always seem to get in the way! The two companies that did in 2001 that I interviewed serviced every game manufacturer.

That punch card era....gee, what a letdown!

Now what's your next lie....or are you going to keep showing your frustration by more name-calling? May I suggest stepping outside for a great big breath of fresh air first, that is, if you're allowed to

LMAO, the dufus just can't let well enough alone. He has to prove his ignorance. Since I already know the card readers on this old technology do not support any of the new functions, this is going to be fun. Come on dufus, show us where all the readers support older machines. Let's see the specs.

Watch him scramble now.

[arcimede$]

There;s another hole in your argument Arc. I don't think you are part of Frank's team. I'm certainly not. I just play 8/5 Aces and Faces or 8/5 Bonus. That's the real world.
Now if you found one of these magic machines, well good for you.

I do play with my own money and get to keep all the winnings. The 2.5% edge I mentioned was my primary play while I wintered in Vegas. I played it for several years. However, it was only a quarter machine so the income wasn't all that great, but both my wife and I played it so we doubled up on the profits. I also found a couple of 2% dollar games to play and a quarter triple play progressive that was usually in the 1-2% range.

[Alan Mendelson]

I do play with my own money and get to keep all the winnings. The 2.5% edge I mentioned was my primary play while I wintered in Vegas. I played it for several years. However, it was only a quarter machine so the income wasn't all that great, but both my wife and I played it so we doubled up on the profits. I also found a couple of 2% dollar games to play and a quarter triple play progressive that was usually in the 1-2% range.

Very good, Arc. I'm glad you are the exception and good for you! I am glad there are winners out there. The rest of us who can't find the positive machines need something else-- and that's where I like Rob's money management and his win-goal strategy.

If I were a super human video poker player, playing on the super machines, I might do things in your super way. But alas I'm not. So I have to find other ways to enjoy my visit and lock up profits when I can. And I think a lot of players are like me and a lot of players will also quit when ahead.

It just strikes me funny that you feel quitting when ahead will not make a difference in a player's bottom line?

I remember this advice from my father -- fifty years ago -- when talking about the stock market. He said to me: no one ever went broke selling at a profit. And you know what? No one ever went broke quitting when ahead at a casino game.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, as I explained to your before, the edge in VP is on every bet.

I had to come back to this quote. It is of course the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. You have no edge if you lose your bet.

Your reasoning is what leads people to go broke. You must separate theory from reality. You fail to overlook the consequences of not quitting when ahead.