My Advantage Video Poker Play

[regnis]

About the only thing I can add to this discussion is Advantage Players depend on the ignorance of the public to make a living. Do I take advantage of casino errors? Like a video poker payscale that is so strong it offers the player a 13% advantage. Believe it or not I did find a game like like. It was a joker game with a very oddball payscale. Sure I take advantage of these casino errors. So someone is saying I'm not an AP because I'm just taking advantage of a casino error? Here's the thing. The play is sitting there for all the general public to peruse. The general public would love to play such a game if they knew it was that strong. But the reason I'm playing it and not them is they don't have the skills to figure out it's an advantage. The game just sat there without getting much action from the general public. Then I came along and recognized the game as a possible advantage. Because it is such an oddball game it can't be fully analyzed by any software on the market. I had to calculate the strategy and analyze the game mathematically to determine it was an advantage play. This is something the general public had the opportunity to do. But I'm the only person who has ever seen the game that had the skills to analyze it and determine it was a huge advantage. Thats what AP is all about.

Can you describe the 13% advantage without divulging too much. Like the machine and the pay scale but not the casino or city?

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't sell anything online but my son does for his business www.bassstringsonline.com and when there is an error you honor the order. It's what good business people do.

[Rob.Singer]

Finding an odd game with a strange, over-the-top pay table is a very rare occurrence, but it can happen. Because of this I consider that a LUCKY find and not an "advantage play" of some kind. Also regnis, I don't believe Mickey will be able to give the details because, if real, he used gut feel and did not plug the numbers into his head and come up with both that 13% figure and the perfect strategy for it. Obviously.

Alan, let's assume this claim of paying $129k in taxes has nothing corrupting it, like any other income. $300,000 in net profit is being a bit stingy; it's gotta be more like $600,000. Beginning to wonder why jbjb clams up with the details, proof, and sense of it all? And no gambler who claims to be one of these AP's would ever use an "honor system" and report every penny made that had no tax form attached to it. Remember, these people claim to "take advantage" of each & every situation they run into, and as we've seen from people like Dancer, that is hardly limited to gambling.

Combined with the laughable RS__s' lack of knowledge about tax filing strategy along with his multiple statements borne of no experience, this site is the victim of mouthy armchair AP's who can't get no satisfaction on the wizard's site no more no how.

[singahkillah]

Yes, it's a Single Joker Two Pair or Better game. Here's the payscale:

5 Aces....................................1600
Royal Flush...............................800
4 Natural Aces..........................300+ 1% meter
Five of a Kind............................250
Natural Aces Full of Anything......200+ 1% meter
Joker Royal...............................200
Straight Flush.............................50
4 of a Kind.................................25
Full House....................................9
Flush........................,..................5
Straight.......................................4
3 of a Kind...................................1
Two Pair.......................................1

It's been almost 8 years since I found and analyzed this game. The game can't be fully analyzed by the software because of two hands. The 5 Aces paying 1600 for 1 where a regular 5 of a Kind pays 250 for 1. And the Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. There is no software out there where you can isolate those two hands. But Wolf Video Poker was a big help. It did a lot of the work for me. I punched the payscale into the field, eleminating the 5 Aces and Natural Aces Full hands. Then went to work from there.

WVP has a great function called "Tweak the Strategy Chart." Hands like 3 Aces, Two Pair (Aces Up), Pair of Aces, or one lone Ace have a much higher EV in this game than what the regular strategy chart showed. So I did the math to determine the real EV of these hands then tweaked them up the strategy chart to their proper positions. Then I clicked the analyze button again to get the payback.

The next move was to determine the chances of making a Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. This is done by determining all the routes to the hand. It looks something like this:

Dealt Aces Full
Dealt 3 Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Two Pair Aces Up into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Pair of Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair with an Ace Kicker into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt One Ace into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Draw Five hand into Aces Full on the draw.

There are functions in WVP that will tell you precisely how often you see these dealt hands per the modified strategy chart. So then it was just a matter of calculating the chance of turning those hands into Aces Full. I came up with the frequency of 876 for making a Natural Aces Full Hand. I was also able to use this method to determine the frequency of making the 5 Aces hand (126,00). The software showed me the frequency of Natural 4 Aces (5,300).

I had to make another adjustment for The Pair with the Ace Kicker hand. So the software showed the game at 89%. The Natural Aces Full Hand pays 200 for 1 on a frequency of 876 ( I had to make another adjustment here too because the software already accounted for 9 bets of the hand)

191/876 = 21.8%
89% + 21.8% = 110.8%

The game has 2% worth of meters too so a 112.8% game.

You can see by the payscale that 3 of a Kind pays even money. Most Joker games pay 2 for 1. This is a very top heavy payscale. But the bet is just 50 cents. You might call this a low roller play then. But at 1000 HPH it's worth $64 an hour. I would much rather have a gig making $64 an hour on a $500 an hour wager than a $64 an hour gig running $5000 an hour wager.

PS, Robbie Boy, you are wrong once again.

[singahkillah]

Where was the casino mistake in this game? It was in the Natural Aces Full Hand. The game can be found on about 2000 machines. But the Natural Aces Full meter starts at $10 (20 for 1) or $15 (30 for 1). The first time I stumbed onto one where the meter started at $100 I knew it had to be a big advantage. This big lightbulb goes off in my head. If they made this mistake on this one machine they may have made it on others. So I went through all two thousand machines looking for the mistake. I found the mistake on two dozen machines. So I started running a route on them just taking so much money out of every machine. I also tracked the meters to see if I had any competition. And when I was on the play where there was more than one machine in a location I always observed whether anyone else was playing the game. The machines have a dozen video poker games on them and a dozen keno games. The players have a big selection. I never seen or suspected I had any competition. It's almost 8 years later and I'm down to 2 machines at one location.

[OneHitWonder]

The U.S. Department of Transportation used to force airlines to honour mistaken fares. But just this spring, they announced plans to revisit the policy. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...tage-1.3207946

The times are a catching up?

I have narcissistic tendenceies, Robbie. I'm not afraid to admit
it. I like to show off. But you are a scared little rabbit,
Slobbie. You want to show off but you don't have anything to show
off. Because you are a loser. You were born a loser, you lived your
life as a loser and you will die a loser. https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...ns/topics/5786

Note the, "I like to show off," mc adds at the end of a 114.5% machine story.

[OneHitWonder]

You're right about Nevada. Especially right now. I haven't said anything about it, and I will have to shut up about it--I got friends who wouldn't be too pleased--but anyone with a clue can run $8000 to $10,000 a month in freeplay/bounceback in Las Vegas right now.

Why am I not there? There is a woman involved. She doesn't want me to leave Montana. And I don't want to leave Montana/her either. Except maybe for some short trips. https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...ns/topics/5786

Okay, mc...

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, let's assume this claim of paying $129k in taxes has nothing corrupting it, like any other income. $300,000 in net profit is being a bit stingy; it's gotta be more like $600,000.

You're probably right that I was being stingy.

Frankly, I don't know many people who pay $129,000 a year in taxes unless they are multi millionaires or won Megabucks and are collecting a million dollars or more each year without offsetting casino losses.

I wonder if he just misspoke and really had taxable income of $129,000 which would make a whole lotta sense.

[OneHitWonder]

I wonder if he just misspoke and really had taxable income of $129,000 which would make a whole lotta sense.

I had the twinge that he was throwing your 1.29 mil number back at you. Just a coincidence?

[Alan Mendelson]

I had the twinge that he was throwing your 1.29 mil number back at you. Just a coincidence?

That is an interesting observation. While I had W2Gs for $1.29-million I lost money that year. In fact I lost exactly what I should have lost playing a negative expectation 9/5 DDB game. I have no trouble admitting to my losses. I wonder if any self-described AP can admit to his losses?

years ago I met a self-described AP at Rincon who later lost his entire bankroll playing only "advantage plays" which included slots with jackpots that "must hit by" and also playing abandoned multipliers on Ultimate X machines.

[singahkillah]

Yes, it's a Single Joker Two Pair or Better game. Here's the payscale:

5 Aces....................................1600
Royal Flush...............................800
4 Natural Aces..........................300+ 1% meter
Five of a Kind............................250
Natural Aces Full of Anything......200+ 1% meter
Joker Royal...............................200
Straight Flush.............................50
4 of a Kind.................................25
Full House....................................9
Flush........................,..................5
Straight.......................................4
3 of a Kind...................................1
Two Pair.......................................1

It's been almost 8 years since I found and analyzed this game. The game can't be fully analyzed by the software because of two hands. The 5 Aces paying 1600 for 1 where a regular 5 of a Kind pays 250 for 1. And the Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. There is no software out there where you can isolate those two hands. But Wolf Video Poker was a big help. It did a lot of the work for me. I punched the payscale into the field, eleminating the 5 Aces and Natural Aces Full hands. Then went to work from there.

WVP has a great function called "Tweak the Strategy Chart." Hands like 3 Aces, Two Pair (Aces Up), Pair of Aces, or one lone Ace have a much higher EV in this game than what the regular strategy chart showed. So I did the math to determine the real EV of these hands then tweaked them up the strategy chart to their proper positions. Then I clicked the analyze button again to get the payback.

The next move was to determine the chances of making a Natural Aces Full of Anything hand. This is done by determining all the routes to the hand. It looks something like this:

Dealt Aces Full
Dealt 3 Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Two Pair Aces Up into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Pair of Aces into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair with an Ace Kicker into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Regular Pair into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt One Ace into Aces Full on the draw
Dealt Draw Five hand into Aces Full on the draw.

There are functions in WVP that will tell you precisely how often you see these dealt hands per the modified strategy chart. So then it was just a matter of calculating the chance of turning those hands into Aces Full. I came up with the frequency of 876 for making a Natural Aces Full Hand. I was also able to use this method to determine the frequency of making the 5 Aces hand (126,00). The software showed me the frequency of Natural 4 Aces (5,300).

I had to make another adjustment for The Pair with the Ace Kicker hand. So the software showed the game at 89%. The Natural Aces Full Hand pays 200 for 1 on a frequency of 876 ( I had to make another adjustment here too because the software already accounted for 9 bets of the hand)

191/876 = 21.8%
89% + 21.8% = 110.8%

The game has 2% worth of meters too so a 112.8% game.

You can see by the payscale that 3 of a Kind pays even money. Most Joker games pay 2 for 1. This is a very top heavy payscale. But the bet is just 50 cents. You might call this a low roller play then. But at 1000 HPH it's worth $64 an hour. I would much rather have a gig making $64 an hour on a $500 an hour wager than a $64 an hour gig running $5000 an hour wager.

PS, Robbie Boy, you are wrong once again.

I always love it when someone try's to tell me I'm just blowing smoke. Here's a screenshot of this play:

http://www.imgur.com/7S3spcf

Now, OneHit, analyze this game for all of us and tell us all how I don't know what I'm doing. Tell us all it's not a big advantage. Not only that but I invite every elite gambling mathematician on the planet to review this play and tell me I'm wrong. Come one come all.

For you GPS guys. Save your time looking for the coordinates. I always turn the GPS off before I take a picture of a play.

[Alan Mendelson]

singahkillah the photo does not match the pay table you posted. specifically look at the payout on the royal.

[singahkillah]

I always love it when someone try's to tell me I'm just blowing smoke. Here's a screenshot of this play:

http://www.imgur.com/7S3spcf

Now, OneHit, analyze this game for all of us and tell us all how I don't know what I'm doing. Tell us all it's not a big advantage. Not only that but I invite every elite gambling mathematician on the planet to review this play and tell me I'm wrong. Come one come all.

For you GPS guys. Save your time looking for the coordinates. I always turn the GPS off before I take a picture of a play.

Alan, I put the money odds up on the payscale in the post. In the screen shot, take a look down at the bottom and you will see that it's 25 cent denom and I was betting two coins. In the screen shot the royal pays 1600 coins, but that is on a two coin bet. So the royal pays 800 for 1. The rest of the payscale works out the same way.

[redietz]

Finding that game is impressive.

[singahkillah]

Alan, there is one thing that can't be seen in the screenshot. A regular full house pays 9 for 1. That's because I took the picture when I had an Aces Full of Anything on the screen. The regular full house would show paying 18 coins since I'm making a two coin bet. Again, this little uneducated hillbilly would invite every elite gambling mathematican from here to Timbuktu to review my play and tell all the people in the gambling forums whether I'm blowing smoke or not.

[singahkillah]

Finding that game is impressive.

Thanks, redietz.

[RS__]

Alan, read this: http://beyondnumbers.lvablog.com/201...-at-the-table/


Ultimately, any and all information obtained by anyone regarding HC information can be obtained by anyone. Everyone else had the option to sit in seat #1 or seat #6.

Meanwhile, the game is setup in a way so that not everyone gets the same information. If I have a pair of Kings and don't show others at the table my cards (since you're not supposed to show your cards to others)....I am now using information that no one else at the table can get: 2 kings are removed from the remaining cards.

If I'm playing a pitch BJ game and get dealt 4,5 and 2,A (I'm playing 2 hands) and someone else has T,T, dealer is showing an Ace........the guy with two tens doesn't have the same information I have, and he has information I don't have.

NGC has declared hole-carding to be legal and is not cheating. I *believe* the first (major?) case of this was James Grosjean vs Caesars Entertainment (Caesars Palace), where he got arrested and back-roomed because a dealer was flashing (all 3?) hole cards in TCP. Caesars claimed he was marking the cards, even after they reviewed the cards and figured out there were no markings on the cards whatsoever! Anyway, Grosjean won the case against CET.


Once again, Alan, you show your true inexperience regarding gambling when you say things like:

Frankly I wonder if intentionally looking at that flashed hole card might be considered cheating by the NGC?

[jbjb]

http://apheat.net/2013/11/11/hole-carding-101/

[Alan Mendelson]

Once again, Alan, you show your true inexperience regarding gambling when you say things like:

Frankly I wonder if intentionally looking at that flashed hole card might be considered cheating by the NGC?

Inexperience? Perhaps since I never cheated, and I have never practiced hole carding.

A more important point: knowing what questions to ask is more important than thinking you have all the answers.

jbjb: care to comment again about paying $129,000 in taxes in one year? And just how much of it came from Mississippi Stud? Or any table game? Or did you win Megabucks or a World Series Bracelet?

For a guy who tells us about how he scours casino floors looking for abandoned multipliers on Ultimate X machines it just doesn't quite fit that you would have TAXES DUE of $129,000.

RS___ are you filing a Schedule C or still just leave it up to your accountant?

[Alan Mendelson]

I only wish our "hole carding APs" would present to us their findings on the number of times a hole card is exposed and what was actually won when a hole card was exposed? Just like when you have an abandoned multiplier on Ultimate X video poker you might not have a winning hand -- when you have an exposed hole card it might not help you win anything either.

Quoting other Internet articles about theory still doesn't mean anyone actually benefited from such a play. Perhaps this is why so many card counters in blackjack go bust.