Here's why Rob's system can't be simulated:

Rob makes adjustments to his system according to where he stands in relation to a win goal. For example, he will play conventional video poker strategy if all is going well, but if he is in a deep hole he will make a special play. While you think you might be able to simulate this, it appears from my discussions with Rob that this is a judgment call he makes based on where he is, what game he's on, what denomination and how big his losses have been.

A few cases in point: holding only three aces in a full house on 7/5 Bonus poker is a special play under certain circumstances; breaking up trip queens with three to the royal is another special play when he was really showing a deep, deep loss at the $25/coin level.

Now some of you are making snap judgments about being able to quit when ahead and allowing the small profits to build. For example, Dan wrote this:

Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
If you could predict with certainty that you would leave ahead money that session, then yes, it would be a 100% advantage play.

But since you can't, it is not.

This is because sometimes you will never be up. You will lose from the start and never recover to even for the session. So those have to be factored in, too, especially when you run BELOW expectation and lose far more than the machine's theoretical loss.
This is why I ask each of you to keep your own personal log over the next ten or twenty visits and see for yourself if you ever were showing a profit, and keep track of what your maximum profit was. Compile your own records and report back.

Indeed you might never have a profit in any session -- and if you play a high volatility game such as Double Double Bonus that might be the case. Or you might find you have many sessions showing a small or a moderate profit at some time.

I personally have found that at least 90% of my sessions have a profit at some point. Sometimes the profit is large because I hit quads early on -- or a $100,000 royal with only $1,000 in the machine.

And remember what Rob says about having loss limits. It makes no sense to have small win goals if you have big loss limits.

Even if you find you have a small profit at some point in 95% of the sessions you play, you might never choose to quit because you don't want just a small profit -- you want a larger profit, or you are willing to risk the small gains for a chance at a larger profit. That's okay if that's what you want to do. And if you're in Vegas for a three day weekend it's unlikely you would ever quit with just a $100 profit or even a $500 profit -- you'd want to keep playing because that's why you're there.

Rob's win goal and loss limit strategy really fits hit and run visits -- when you are not staying at a casino resort for three days. It works best just as how he used it -- when he would make the drive from Phoenix to Vegas, play, hit and leave. As he told me there were many times he didn't even stay overnight in a hotel if there was a big payoff in his pocket.

I used a similar "hit and run" strategy at Rincon. I never stayed overnight at Rincon. Unfortunately I had a large win goal and would not accept a $500 win. Sometimes I didn't accept a $3,500 profit and put it back in the machines, and I regret doing that now.

It's like the turtle -- slow and steady wins the race.

By the way, many craps players use a quit when ahead strategy. It is very common for a craps table to empty after a hot roll. Why is it that craps players can accept this strategy but video poker and other game players can't?