Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited

[Alan Mendelson]

The reason why I say they don't help is simple. Let's say you have a $100 win goal. Now, will having that goal actually help you win $100? Never! Stop losses on the other hand can be a tool to keep you from going on tilt, reassessing your BR, etc. But neither will help you in the grand scheme of things. As been mentioned countless times. Quitting at a predetermined amount, AND THEN COMING BACK LATER is no different than continuing on. Now if you plan on never coming back, that's a whole different ball game.

You're right. But I am a recreational gambler. So a win goal allows me to go home saying to myself "I had a great trip and won some money." You gamble every day. You have to look at the world differently. You need constant income from play. You can't quit. Even for the day you can't quit

[redietz]

You're right. But I am a recreational gambler. So a win goal allows me to go home saying to myself "I had a great trip and won some money." You gamble every day. You have to look at the world differently. You need constant income from play. You can't quit. Even for the day you can't quit

I may be overstating it, but it seems the theme of these comments is "Recreational=good/professional=bad."

It's funny, because that's exactly how the casinos look at it, too.

A professional can quit any time. That, my friends, is part of being a professional. If the odds change, the professional moves on. If he/she doesn't, then he/she isn't a professional.

I think part of the problem some posters have is that they associate professionalism with addiction. It's actually the recreational players who are more addicted.

[Alan Mendelson]

I may be overstating it, but it seems the theme of these comments is "Recreational=good/professional=bad."

It's funny, because that's exactly how the casinos look at it, too.

Where does this come from?

Even professionals can use win goals and loss limits. I have win goals and loss limits in my business when I pitch new clients.

Redietz we all have win goals and loss limits in everything we do when the outcome is not predetermined. Think about that.

[redietz]

The ubiquity of a behavior has nothing to do with whether it's effective. Ninety-some percent of Americans pray, and they pray regarding a multitude of things. Try praying as a video poker strategy sometime.

[Alan Mendelson]

Win goals and loss limits work for me. Your results might differ. Good luck.

[jbjb]

Win goals and loss limits work for me. Your results might differ. Good luck.

What do you do when you get $5 short of your win goal? Keep going until you get it or until you hit the loss limit?

[arcimede$]

Again it depends on how much I am ahead and what my loss limit is for the sessions when I lose.

I want YOU to keep track of the percentage of times YOU are showing a profit so you can see it's possible to have profits on -EV machines.

Your net profit will be based on your total wins less your losses. Some would say any profit is a player victory.

I keep track of all my sessions. So far this year I'm am winning around 60% which is just pure luck, As for -EV machines, I am forced to play my freeplay on them and so far this year my return is 113% (around 1600 hands). And no, I don't use any special plays.

It just shows that short term results don't tell you a thing about how you will do over the long haul. That is why I wrote the simulation to see what happens after millions of hands. As I told you before it makes no difference when you cash out. However, by using the strategy I outlined you can generate dozens of sessions in just one visit and see for yourself how you strategy works out. Pick some small win/loss goals and stick to them each and every little session. Since you are the one promoting this nonsense, at least you might try and generate something to support your claims.

[jbjb]

And I wouldn't call what I do "professional." I just do it for income and I enjoy what I do.

[jbjb]

I want to also add that table games wins are a whole set of different circumstances from heat level, casino tolerances and reporting requirements.

[Alan Mendelson]

What do you do when you get $5 short of your win goal? Keep going until you get it or until you hit the loss limit?

Good question. Win goals are not set in stone. I have a win goal of about $3,000 for a daily visit. "About" has a lot of flexibility. My loss limit is $1500. My loss limits are firm.

If I am up a thousand dollars and start running into a lot of losers, I can quit. I learned my lesson. There were many times I was up $500 or $800 and put it all back. But when you think of the wins of $500 or $800 as "my money" then it becomes harder to put it back.

[jbjb]

Good question. Win goals are not set in stone. I have a win goal of about $3,000 for a daily visit. "About" has a lot of flexibility. My loss limit is $1500. My loss limits are firm.

If I am up a thousand dollars and start running into a lot of losers, I can quit. I learned my lesson. There were many times I was up $500 or $800 and put it all back. But when you think of the wins of $500 or $800 as "my money" then it becomes harder to put it back.

My one and only dealt royal came on 25¢ 9/6 JoB STP Spin Poker (99.82%) with a total cash back and comps of 0.4% (yes Rob will probably call this "theory", but so what :-)). Anyway. I always started with $500. On this session I ran it to nearly 8000 credits ($2000) and said if I get there I'll take a break. Now this wasn't a regular goal nor would it continue to have been. Well, I got about 200 credits short when the $h!t started hitting the fan. As I was going down, I kept saying I'd quit at 7000 credits, 6000, etc. Well after getting below 5000, I absolutely was going to stop at 4000 for a double up. I got to about 4300 or so when the five highest spades were dealt for a nice $9000 win. Unfortunately they removed the game later that year then down graded most other games after that. Overall I took about $30,000 off of it before it was removed.

[Alan Mendelson]

jbjb I can tell you stories too about not quitting when I was ahead only to win even more. For example, what happened to me just a month ago: quad queens at $25/coin VP for $3125. That alone should have made me leave. But I moved down to $5 VP and got a straight flush for $1250. Then I lost a couple of thousand only to switch to $25 VP again for quad deuces for $5,000. Yeah, I really should have left then, but no, I played a couple more hands and hit my $100,000 royal. Sometimes you just get lucky, don't you?

Sometimes you just want to take the win and enjoy yourself.

I probably have lost more over my life giving back wins, then what I've won continuing to play.

Sure, it's nice to talk about the big wins and the big wins that followed other big wins. But the reality is for we mere mortals the big wins don't come that often.

You super APs who beat the casinos and earn a living in the casinos are head and shoulders above the rest of us. Carry on.

[jbjb]

I wouldn't call me a "super AP" (that's James Grosjean territory) just as I wouldn't call you the worst of degenerate gamblers. Certainly you make a great living with your business and can easily afford $5+ vp and you're smart enough to know your limits. I have a non AP friend that will blow his last dollar he takes every time he goes to casinos. That's the lowest of the low there and you're nowhere close to that. Everyone who gambles, whether recreational, AP or whatever should just use common sense.

[Alan Mendelson]

How do you measure common sense? Do you measure common sense by the credits on the meter or the cash in your pocket, or do you measure common sense by what the odds (theory) are?

This is where Rob Singer is spot on. Theory and odds do not pay the bills. It's not about making the best bet, it's about winning.

[jbjb]

Then why not just Martingale the 30 to 1 odds of boxcars showing up? And, are you winning lifetime? Dunno about you but I am and will never look back.

[arcimede$]

You measure common sense by the games you select to play and strategy you use. Over time the short term wins and losses will average out. Why you deny simple mathematics, which every PhD in mathematician would tell you is correct, is beyond me.

[Alan Mendelson]

Then why not just Martingale the 30 to 1 odds of boxcars showing up? And, are you winning lifetime? Dunno about you but I am and will never look back.

Maximum bet on 12 at the casinos I play at is $2,000 on the 12.

I think I told the story here about the player at my table at Caesars who had $100 on the 12 for 30 rolls in a row. Not one 12. He gave up. Dice came to me and my first two come-out rolls were 12.

Now, with that said... WTF does a martingale on the 12 have to do with having a win goal and a loss limit? This is not about stupid betting, is it?

[Alan Mendelson]

You measure common sense by the games you select to play and strategy you use. Over time the short term wins and losses will average out. Why you deny simple mathematics, which every PhD in mathematician would tell you is correct, is beyond me.

I have a hard time trying to understand why putting money in your pocket and leaving the casino with a profit isn't a good strategy?
I have a hard time trying to understand why having a loss limit for the days you don't win isn't a good strategy?

What math says it is wrong to leave with a profit?
What math says it is wrong to limit your losses?

[arcimede$]

I have a hard time trying to understand why putting money in your pocket and leaving the casino with a profit isn't a good strategy?
I have a hard time trying to understand why having a loss limit for the days you don't win isn't a good strategy?

What math says it is wrong to leave with a profit?
What math says it is wrong to limit your losses?

No one has ever said there is anything wrong with quitting for whatever reason a person chooses. It is only wrong when you try and claim it changes your results.

[jbjb]

Anyone who is not ahead lifetime while gambling has no profit from gambling.