Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited

[RS__]

Not if I had kept to a loss limit on subsequent visits.

Keyword: "IF".

So after hitting your $36K royal, why didn't you decide to start a new session with a $1500 loss limit (or whatever your future loss-limits would have been)?

[Alan Mendelson]

Keyword: "IF".

So after hitting your $36K royal, why didn't you decide to start a new session with a $1500 loss limit (or whatever your future loss-limits would have been)?

If I had, I would have lost only $1,500 and not 15-THOUSAND. But this happened two years before I started a $1500 loss limit.

You can start poking holes wherever you want to poke holes, and I am sure you and Arc and redietz and Dan will do that. But had I followed the ideas of a strict loss limit (I didn't) and even if I used the convoluted idea of starting another session immediately with a $1,500 loss limit, I would not have lost so much money.

And this wasn't the only time I was thousands of dollars ahead -- kept playing -- and lost it all. And I don't think I'm alone.

I think the most important point is simply this: it's very rare to get more than one big jackpot in a day -- so when you get it, keep it. We're getting lucky hitting just one a day... are we really going to hit two in a day? Yeah, I know it's going to happen -- it happened to me. But there comes a time when it's better to be satisfied with a bird in the hand instead of a flock in the bush.

[quahaug]

Alan, with a win goal of three thousand and a stop loss of fifteen hundred strictly adhered to I predict you will lose your shirt in short order.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, with a win goal of three thousand and a stop loss of fifteen hundred strictly adhered to I predict you will lose your shirt in short order.

Absolutely ridiculous. Here's why:

1. A loss limit is an amount I can afford to lose.
2. A loss limit is an amount I can afford to lose.
3. A loss limit is an amount I can afford to lose.

Would you like reason #4 also?

[RS__]

I have on idea (well, kinda two ideas) as to why.....but I'm curious, Alan. If you have a $1500 loss limit....why are you taking out a marker for $5K?

[RS__]

You can start poking holes wherever you want to poke holes, and I am sure you and Arc and redietz and Dan will do that. But had I followed the ideas of a strict loss limit (I didn't) and even if I used the convoluted idea of starting another session immediately with a $1,500 loss limit, I would not have lost so much money.

You're right. You would have lost less money. (I've been saying this all along, stop win/loss goals = lose less money.) But if you lost $1500, then started another session and lost another $1500...then another....and now you're down $15K. What does the loss limit have to do with any of it? Better yet, you lose $1500, quit for the day/week/whatever. Come back next time and lose another $1500. Then again and again. Either way, it's $15K you lost...whether it be one session of $15K or 10 sessions of $1500.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have on idea (well, kinda two ideas) as to why.....but I'm curious, Alan. If you have a $1500 loss limit....why are you taking out a marker for $5K?

I have a credit line well in excess of $5,000. I take out markers in $1,000 increments at the craps tables. The exception was the weekend a month ago when I decided (after hitting two $20,000 royals on two previous trips) that I would try the $25/coin machine for $2,000.

Since I was in high limit slots, I just asked for $5,000. (You can always pay it back immediately.) I put two $1,000 tickets in and started playing.

I go to Vegas to play craps, not video poker. Until I quit playing at Rincon my video poker play was at Rincon. And I got lucky at Caesars. Both of those $20,000 royals were hit with only a few hundred dollars in the machines.

[arcimede$]

I am going to admit something to all of you which is why I honestly think Rob's strategy of quitting when ahead could really work.

three years ago I hit the progressive royals at Rincon twice: in July for just over $36,000 and then again in October for just under $36,000. The night I hit the second progressive I thought i could do nothing wrong since I hit it very early. So I moved up to $10 video poker... and proceeded to lose $15,000 in short order.

That $15,000 would have made the difference between a winning or losing year that year.

There's an alternative to your claim. In fact, you did NOT quit while ahead after your win in July. You came back and continued to play and hit another jackpot. Had you really quit you would have only won the first $36,000.

However, in your warped mind you blame not quitting after the 2nd jackpot was a problem while you ignore not quitting after the first jackpot. You do realize you are bending the facts to try and support your silly claims? Some people might even call you delusional.

[Alan Mendelson]

You're right. You would have lost less money. (I've been saying this all along, stop win/loss goals = lose less money.) But if you lost $1500, then started another session and lost another $1500...then another....and now you're down $15K. What does the loss limit have to do with any of it? Better yet, you lose $1500, quit for the day/week/whatever. Come back next time and lose another $1500. Then again and again. Either way, it's $15K you lost...whether it be one session of $15K or 10 sessions of $1500.

I don't play multiple sessions in a day. $1500 is my daily limit. I go to Vegas for two days, or three days.

As I mentioned before, I used to go to Vegas just to play craps -- and I was playing video poker at Rincon. When I played VP at Caesars it was limited to only $1 and not for long. When I stopped going to Rincon I played more VP at Caesars and got lucky hitting two $20K royals on two back-to-back trips.

[arcimede$]

I have a credit line well in excess of $5,000. I take out markers in $1,000 increments at the craps tables. The exception was the weekend a month ago when I decided (after hitting two $20,000 royals on two previous trips) that I would try the $25/coin machine for $2,000.

So, you didn't quit while you were ahead and you hit another royal to increase the amount you are ahead. This appears to disprove your claims, not support them.

[RS__]

So Alan's going to have a $1500 loss limit......mhmmmm, I wonder how long that's going to last (not the $1500, but how long before it turns into a $5K or $10K loss limit). Especially since he's most likely going to hit up the $25 machines on his next visit. Hell, he might even "take a shot with $10K" on the $100 denoms. Wouldn't be surprising. Only way to win big is to bet big!

[quahaug]

What I'm saying is with a win goal of twice your stop loss your winning sessions will be very few and very far between resulting in total net loses far exceeding anything you have experienced in the past. I'm sure arci can come up with a % win rate I'm pretty sure it'll be less than 90-95 percent.

[Alan Mendelson]

So, you didn't quit while you were ahead and you hit another royal to increase the amount you are ahead. This appears to disprove your claims, not support them.

Yes, I mentioned this before. It does happen. And twice in my life I hit two royals on the same trip and within about 12 hours of each other: It was about ten years ago that I hit two $5 progressives at Caesars, and about a year ago I hit a $2 royal ($8,000) and quit playing, but the next day I found out I had $500 of free play and on the third or fourth hand at a $1 machine I hit another royal $4,000. Yes, lucky things can happen. But I also remember how I lost $15,000 at Rincon and many other times when I had big profits and gave it all back... and I mean ALL back.

Ya know, you can poke holes at this idea of taking profits home all you want. I think you should do what works for you. I think sticking to win goals and loss limits will work just fine for me.

By the way, I should comment more about what quahaug wrote: while loss limits are always strict (or else it's not a loss LIMIT), win goals do not mean you have to keep playing until you reach the "win goal." You can stop playing when you are down 1/10 of your loss limit and you can stop playing when you are at 10% of your win goal. A win goal is the point where you say "it probably can't get better than this, so I'm going." So, if I have $1500 to play and manage to double my money to $3,000 I think that's a pretty good time to high tail it out of the casino. How often do you get to double your money in a short time doing something that's fun?

And I have to say it again: craps players bolt from the table all the time after they have a nice run. But video poker players can't?? That amazes me.

[Alan Mendelson]

So Alan's going to have a $1500 loss limit......mhmmmm, I wonder how long that's going to last (not the $1500, but how long before it turns into a $5K or $10K loss limit). Especially since he's most likely going to hit up the $25 machines on his next visit. Hell, he might even "take a shot with $10K" on the $100 denoms. Wouldn't be surprising. Only way to win big is to bet big!

Wow, you sound like Rob Singer. Are you Rob Singer?

[RS__]

What I'm saying is with a win goal of twice your stop loss your winning sessions will be very few and very far between resulting in total net loses far exceeding anything you have experienced in the past. I'm sure arci can come up with a % win rate I'm pretty sure it'll be less than 90-95 percent.

I don't think it'd be that high (90-95% loss rate), but I don't know. Well, the main factors (only) are the denom played and the game type (JOB, BP, DDB, TDP, as well as single line, multi line (how many?), UX, SP, STP/DSTP, etc.). My guess, your win-rate would be maximized on the $25-50 denom. Well, $100 denom would probably have a higher win-rate, but you'd also get very little action in [no fun].

So, if I have $1500 to play and manage to double my money to $3,000

Is your win goal $3,000 or $1,500?

[Alan Mendelson]

My guess, your win-rate would be maximized on the $25-50 denom. Well, $100 denom would probably have a higher win-rate, but you'd also get very little action in [no fun].

You'll have to explain this, please. Win rates don't change with denomination. 8/5 Bonus poker has the same win rates at 25-cents as it does at $100. I think you're supposed to "win" 45% of the hands played.

[RS__]

You'll have to explain this, please. Win rates don't change with denomination. 8/5 Bonus poker has the same win rates at 25-cents as it does at $100. I think you're supposed to "win" 45% of the hands played.

I'm talking about the probability of winning X amount before losing Y.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, it would only take a couple of blank hands on $100 video poker to get wiped out. What does your probability theory say about that?

[RS__]

I haven't done the math. But you're right, you could lose in just 3 hands.

[jbjb]

Well, it would only take a couple of blank hands on $100 video poker to get wiped out. What does your probability theory say about that?

The very definition of "variance."