Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited

[arcimede$]

Nothing in the definition of quit implies returning to do the activity later.

Stick to math arc---nothing in the definition implies permanency either. Trust a lawyer on this---this is how you lose cases. The judge needs facts, not vagueness. But also it appears you googled the definition and if so, read further into the explanations and examples.

Being more technical leads me to using words that are more descriptive of events. Hence, to "quit" sounds much more permanent that "pause" or "delay". Technical writers always try to use the most descriptive terms. We can see from Alan's words that he is confusing himself by using the word "quit" when he really means "pause" or "delay".

[arcimede$]

Alan--tell me where I can find a +EV "dame". Mine have all been -EV

Singer's wife has supported him for many, many years. Maybe you can ask him for advice. Or, look for a gal named ydnic.

[arcimede$]

Being more technical leads me to using words that are more descriptive of events. Hence, to "quit" sounds much more permanent that "pause" or "delay". Technical writers always try to use the most descriptive terms. We can see from Alan's words that he is confusing himself by using the word "quit" when he really means "pause" or "delay".

After a little thought I think the best word is "suspend". Alan want to suspend his play while ahead with an assumption that he will do better after resuming play.

[jbjb]

Alan--tell me where I can find a +EV "dame". Mine have all been -EV

All of Alan's have been -EV as well =P

[redietz]

Alan--tell me where I can find a +EV "dame". Mine have all been -EV

And yet one becomes addicted.

Rumor has it that Rob has a +EV dame. That's why he has that storage locker in Arizona. He keeps her there -- like Rapunzel.

[Alan Mendelson]

I corrected the typo regnis but a +EV dame has a lot of money and is willing to spend/share with you. Like video poker I have not played a +EV dame.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc yes you can say that my quit in the long term is a pause. And each player who sits at a machine is there in the seat for nothing that will approach the long term for that machine or that casino. So is there a long term for any of us? No. Rob is right about this: we all play in the short term. You must look at every session individually. You can't say I'll make up that loss next time or I will win next time. The banks and the mortgages and my alimony payment can't wait for the next time.

In TV we have a cynical expression: you're as good as your last show. Maybe gamblers are only as good as their last session and loss limits can prevent a disaster and win goals can lock in a profit.

By the way I think I have a new +EV girlfriend but it's from comps and not cash.

[Rob.Singer]

I think you're making an impression on arci. Next he'll be asking you how to pick up women.

Talk to any AP when they're running behind, and they'll tell you they will be ahead soon. You've seen arci do that right here once or twice. Why? Because their crystal math ball tells them. At any other time and in any other case, they'll be the first ones to claim that you can't count on anything in the future because no one knows a thing about it. Yet here they are, proclaiming to know what's coming. And it's all part of their feel-good/self-confidence building schtick of "advantage play". You know, it just HAS to be they way they want it to be or tell it. Anything else would constitute a serious tilt in their confused philosophy. Ask the wizard--he experienced that TILT in capital letters.

[a2a3dseddie]

After reading through this thread (serious deja vu folks) I wonder if this strategy would work for other vices...say for example... smoking cigarettes. That's a -EV activity (lung cancer/COPD) working against the ultimate "bankroll"...your life expectancy.

Perhaps the forum could collectively come up with a smoking cessation program. We would all get rich! Plenty of money to go around! Quit whenever you feel like it. Then start smoking again and just quit again! Rinse and repeat!

[redietz]

I think you've just described the standard 12-step programs. Pay your dues, quit, see you soon.

[Rob.Singer]

Arci would be the #1 go-to guy to ask about -EV dames. He dragged an ailing wife, who had little to contribute, through casino after casino until she landed into the ultimate negative ev situation.

Now of course, he'll be using a "Minnesota nice" approach to meeting a +EV broad for a change. After all, you think he'll ever get over what a supportive +ev wife I'VE had all these years when he was stuck with such a slug!?

I live for times like this!

[arcimede$]

Arc yes you can say that my quit in the long term is a pause. And each player who sits at a machine is there in the seat for nothing that will approach the long term for that machine or that casino. So is there a long term for any of us? No. Rob is right about this: we all play in the short term.

Your comment is like saying a baseball player is only as good as his last game. Do you think awards are given out on who had the best last game of the season? I seem to recall they have things like batting champions that look at all the games together. In fact, they do this in all sports. They might give out a few weekly accolades but when it comes to the meat, they all look at the full years results. On top of that, to get into the hall of fame you have to put together good results year after year.

Short term results are like having a good game in a sporting event. It makes you feel nice but it is essentially meaningless in the end.

[arcimede$]

Arci would be the #1 go-to guy to ask about -EV dames. He dragged an ailing wife, who had little to contribute, through casino after casino until she landed into the ultimate negative ev situation.

Now of course, he'll be using a "Minnesota nice" approach to meeting a +EV broad for a change. After all, you think he'll ever get over what a supportive +ev wife I'VE had all these years when he was stuck with such a slug!?

I live for times like this!

As I've often noted, whenever Singer brings up my deceased wife you know he is feeling stressed. I think I made him feel really stupid after he tried to claimed my trips to the casino were a problem. What a nut job.

PS. How is that Coyote tonight? Owrooooooooo

[Rob.Singer]

As I've often noted, whenever Singer brings up my deceased wife you know he is feeling stressed. I think I made him feel really stupid after he tried to claimed my trips to the casino were a problem. What a nut job.

PS. How is that Coyote tonight? Owrooooooooo

Well there's one thing you got me on: you can make fun of my wife, and all I can say about yours is how she must love eating dirt The ultimate escape!

[Rob.Singer]

Your comment is like saying a baseball player is only as good as his last game. Do you think awards are given out on who had the best last game of the season? I seem to recall they have things like batting champions that look at all the games together. In fact, they do this in all sports. They might give out a few weekly accolades but when it comes to the meat, they all look at the full years results. On top of that, to get into the hall of fame you have to put together good results year after year.

Short term results are like having a good game in a sporting event. It makes you feel nice but it is essentially meaningless in the end.

I love how arci eternally (oops, should I be saying that?) steps into his own traps. So does a baseball player's batting avg. etc. continue on to the next season?

[RS__]

I love how arci eternally (oops, should I be saying that?) steps into his own traps. So does a baseball player's batting avg. etc. continue on to the next season?

His career results do, absolutely.

[Alan Mendelson]

This discussion has really gotten off track.

I'm sorry guys but career results have nothing to do with winning or losing at casino games when you play. Just because you won on your last trip and that you won during your last year does not mean you will win on your next trip or in the next year.

Win goals and loss limits are all about this session however long this session is whether you measure it by the full calendar day or if you measure it by the time between bathroom breaks.

Having a loss limit prevents you from losing too much when things aren't going your way and puts a limit on your emotions to keep playing until you catch up, or win back your losses, or other irrational behavior that hit you when you lose.

Having a win goal allows you to set a point to leave, and win goals can be adjusted higher as you keep winning -- so there is no reason to abandon a session when you are winning such as with a hot roll at craps, or even a video poker machine that seems to be spewing like an ATM, or a hot shoe in blackjack.

In casino gambling past is not prologue. If you hit a royal flush on your last four out of five visits to Vegas (as has happened to me) it doesn't mean I will hit another royal on my next visit. Career stats are wonderful for valuing a ball player, or the number of Oscars for an actor, or box office receipts for a movie studio, or even the number of LA Press Club Awards for a certain business reporter you all know and love -- but career stats mean nothing on your next casino bet.

[Alan Mendelson]

By the way, I attribute my recent run of great luck to my new Irish lucky charm. Photo of Linda below. Yes, I reached my win goal.

[Rob.Singer]

Those S. Calif. playboys really do exist!

People really do need to better understand the concept behind what win goals mean. As an example: my win goal in the game arci plays with me has most satisfyingly been met over the past year. Yet he is the gift that keeps on giving, so maybe there really IS something to Alan's raising his win goal after hitting the jackpot

[Alan Mendelson]

so maybe there really IS something to Alan's raising his win goal

Of course you want to adjust your win goal higher as you are winning and exceed what would have been your win goal.

I have to say I have been amazed when during a hot roll at craps a player decides to color up and leave the table. Now, if they are late for a show I can understand that. But if they are coloring up because they won "enough money" that to me is ridiculous -- yet it has happened.

I am not a blackjack player but I am sure that if you use a win goal during a hot shoe or when the count is in your favor that you are not going to stop playing because you hit your win goal.