Technical Analysis and Gambling Returns

[Count Room]

You meet Rob Singer and he shows you how.

And there's your answer RS__

(yes back to topic, but I wanted to respond to this earlier post)

[Rob.Singer]

Can I make a stab at your question redietz? My guess is that Rob will say his strategies can't fail if you play them 100% accurately. And there is where his critics will hit a wall. They don't know - and I don't know - what 100% accurately is.

Red is wrong on several fronts, one of which is that the strategies have not been explained in detail, as they were right there from top to bottom on my site for just over 10 years, as well as in person to anyone who asks. Alan is 100% correct in that I would not have won consistently w/o playing them exactly as defined. There are a few players whom I'm convinced know the strategy perfectly and they say they win like I do. Many people change several steps. Some say they have been successful in doing this, others say they have not been. But most agree--they have more fun playing and they do overall better than they did as regular players and AP's.

Is my play strategy a reason for the winning? Absolutely. 100%. And red, all the work was performed prior to playing them. At what % does the strategy fail to perform? No idea, because game EV is irrelevant as long it is reasonable. I've won using 8/5 BP as well as 6/5, although I've played the latter sparingly. The same for 7/5 SDBP and 9/5. In the short term, which is how everyone plays, the extra credits usually mean nothing while you utilize special plays and the increase in denomination as well as game volatility to facilitate the higher paying hands. And if I were a silly button-slapping AP playing like the wife is coming in after them with a rolling pin (just a joke--most of them epitomize the word "loser" by not having one or they lost their spouses somehow....and it almost always has something to do with gambling) those extra credits are almost always played thru with nothing to show for them but those very precious slot club points.

[slingshot]

Red is wrong on several fronts, one of which is that the strategies have not been explained in detail, as they were right there from top to bottom on my site for just over 10 years, as well as in person to anyone who asks. Alan is 100% correct in that I would not have won consistently w/o playing them exactly as defined. There are a few players whom I'm convinced know the strategy perfectly and they say they win like I do. Many people change several steps. Some say they have been successful in doing this, others say they have not been. But most agree--they have more fun playing and they do overall better than they did as regular players and AP's.

Is my play strategy a reason for the winning? Absolutely. 100%. And red, all the work was performed prior to playing them. At what % does the strategy fail to perform? No idea, because game EV is irrelevant as long it is reasonable. I've won using 8/5 BP as well as 6/5, although I've played the latter sparingly. The same for 7/5 SDBP and 9/5. In the short term, which is how everyone plays, the extra credits usually mean nothing while you utilize special plays and the increase in denomination as well as game volatility to facilitate the higher paying hands. And if I were a silly button-slapping AP playing like the wife is coming in after them with a rolling pin (just a joke--most of them epitomize the word "loser" by not having one or they lost their spouses somehow....and it almost always has something to do with gambling) those extra credits are almost always played thru with nothing to show for them but those very precious slot club points.

Perhaps the most noticeable reasons for noone grasping the strategies is they dismissed them without trying them, made fun of important topics like hot and cold cycles, dissed the special plays as too hard to understand-though easy to understand, felt that no one could make a profit by small win goals, and the seeming disbelief that one could start at 5c on a structured progression and win an amount worth talking about. I still feel the most overlooked factor is the creative thinking above and beyond the standard ap play. For instance, on a hand with small cards and a lone suited 10, I think holding the 10 and luckily drawing the Royal was the key post in his columns that opened my mind to the fact ANYTHING is possible at the right time and right thinking.

[redietz]

Easy questions go unanswered. At what percentage payback do Rob's strategies fail? Are there different fail points for different strategies? These were the questions.

We have no answers. How can the author of the strategies have no answers?

This is supposed to be a thoroughly researched series of strategies. How can one not know the fail points of the various strategies?

[slingshot]

Easy questions go unanswered. At what percentage payback do Rob's strategies fail? Are there different fail points for different strategies? These were the questions.

We have no answers. How can the author of the strategies have no answers?

This is supposed to be a thoroughly researched series of strategies. How can one not know the fail points of the various strategies?

OK. I'm gonna sit back and let Rob answer from now on-I can see thru this reasoning easily. It's basically about playing on and on without win goals or a stopping point.

[RS__]

No, it's very straight forward and easy, or it should be for Rob if every game was 6/5, would it still work? How frequently do you go from one denom/game-type to another? For example, how often do you go from stage 3 to stage 4? Or how often do you get to the $100 denom stage? How do these frequencies change based on whether you're playing full-pay vs 6/5? In any given stage, what is the probability of winning enough to advance down to an earlier stage / what's the probability to lose and go to the next stage?

Rob says he took a good amount of time (what, 2 years?) to come up with these strategies. If any amount of math was put into these strategies (Rob says he did), he should know each of these numbers, or at least have them written somewhere.

[Alan Mendelson]

Easy questions go unanswered. At what percentage payback do Rob's strategies fail?

I don't know the answer but I think Rob could simply say he doesn't play the worst of the inferior pay tables. I know he plays 7/5 Bonus but prefers full pay 8/5 Bonus. I don't know that he ever played 6/5 Bonus. Again, I am guessing here -- but perhaps following Rob's strategy 100% also means you don't play 6/5 Bonus or any of the other junk pay tables? If so, that would answer your question redietz.

I play 7/5 Bonus probably more than I play 8/5 Bonus but I have never played 6/5 Bonus and won't. Rob could just as easily bypass 6/5 Bonus machines.

[arcimede$]

Rob has never claimed to be better at timing the deal/draw button. What he has claimed is an ability to detect hot and cold machines. His psychic abilities have no match. No doubt he could have made the great carnac the magnificent look like a hack.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not ready to dismiss hot and cold machines. That's why I am testing technical analysis. Arc have you ever kept track of win and loss patterns?

[arcimede$]

I'm not ready to dismiss hot and cold machines. That's why I am testing technical analysis. Arc have you ever kept track of win and loss patterns?

I keep track of all my sessions. There are no "patterns", it varies randomly/

[Alan Mendelson]

I keep track of all my sessions. There are no "patterns", it varies randomly/

Look again. Or better yet, send me what your meter shows. Yes, spin by spin or play by play what does your meter show? That is the ONLY way you can create a chart.
To tell me that there are no patterns is only you making a snap judgment.

And this is my point: I am going to say that NO ONE has ever tracked their meters play by play so that they can plot out on graph paper if there is a pattern. That is exactly what I am doing.

In the stock market it's easy to do. There are print outs of the closing prices of the Dow Jones and individual stocks and other averages.

Does anyone have such a detailed record of their play? I would say "no."

That is why this is worth looking into.

[quahaug]

Look again. Or better yet, send me what your meter shows. Yes, spin by spin or play by play what does your meter show? That is the ONLY way you can create a chart.
To tell me that there are no patterns is only you making a snap judgment.

And this is my point: I am going to say that NO ONE has ever tracked their meters play by play so that they can plot out on graph paper if there is a pattern. That is exactly what I am doing.

In the stock market it's easy to do. There are print outs of the closing prices of the Dow Jones and individual stocks and other averages.

Does anyone have such a detailed record of their play? I would say "no."

That is why this is worth looking into.

Neither one can predict the future, only the past can be plotted or recorded. That's why it's difficult to impossible to predict the weather or the stock market. Ever heard of "gamblers fallacy" Allen?

[Rob.Singer]

Rob has never claimed to be better at timing the deal/draw button. What he has claimed is an ability to detect hot and cold machines. His psychic abilities have no match. No doubt he could have made the great carnac the magnificent look like a hack.

I figured out the Mustains long ago, did I not? Detecting that train wreck turned out even better after a great cognac and a fine August day.

[Rob.Singer]

Easy questions go unanswered. At what percentage payback do Rob's strategies fail? Are there different fail points for different strategies? These were the questions.

We have no answers. How can the author of the strategies have no answers?

This is supposed to be a thoroughly researched series of strategies. How can one not know the fail points of the various strategies?

Red, I've said this many times over: my strategies do not and have not failed because of the popular variable payback amounts for the flush or full house. And why would anybody keep track of a useless statistic like that anyway?

If I choose to go to Red Rock and all I can find is 6/5 BP, I play it because I am never neurotic about the pay tables since I can and have won on these. But since my strategies use multiple games, even a stat freak wouldn't be able to give you such a general answer unless every session on every game were input into a program that analyzed such parameters. You, that goofy phony RS__, and especially a have-no-future guy like arci might have the time to waste doing such nonsense. Try playing for a profit professionally and see where that useless information gathering gets you.

[redietz]

Rob doesn't know the fail points for his various strategies. I think that tells folks, pro and con, all they need to know.

If I have misstated Rob's previous post, please correct me.

As I have said previously, I have a very good idea where the fail points are for what I do, and I've been doing it for 40 years. I just thought most professionals would have a good idea.

[quahaug]

With only a 5% win goal variance and ev mean less. You could easily win at blackjack with even money on naturals. double on 10 and ace only ect. start with twenty units, quit when one unit up. Simple. The problem is, sooner or later.................

[Alan Mendelson]

Neither one can predict the future, only the past can be plotted or recorded. That's why it's difficult to impossible to predict the weather or the stock market. Ever heard of "gamblers fallacy" Allen?

Read up on technical analysis then come back and talk about it.

[arcimede$]

Look again. Or better yet, send me what your meter shows. Yes, spin by spin or play by play what does your meter show? That is the ONLY way you can create a chart.
To tell me that there are no patterns is only you making a snap judgment.

And this is my point: I am going to say that NO ONE has ever tracked their meters play by play so that they can plot out on graph paper if there is a pattern. That is exactly what I am doing.

In the stock market it's easy to do. There are print outs of the closing prices of the Dow Jones and individual stocks and other averages.

Does anyone have such a detailed record of their play? I would say "no."

That is why this is worth looking into.

I have records of all my sessions for the past 12 years. Please take a breath. You are being silly.

[quahaug]

Read up on technical analysis then come back and talk about it.

I know enough about technical analysis to know it's limitations. Trade stocks on T/A alone and you will go broke.

[Alan Mendelson]

thanks but I did quite well trading stocks using TA.

Arc your records do not show how the meter changed from hand to hand which is what I would be looking for as part of my research.

However, I would appreciate your session total results and by session I would appreciate it if it were broken down to daily results. I'd like to chart the pattern of those results (with dates, please) to see if there is anything that stands out. If you don't mind, send it to me by private message.