Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
Arc, if you really believe in the "simple math" then explain the variance and how that will affect a player's bottom line. I know video poker players who over a lifetime of play NEVER got a royal flush.

They never got a royal because of what you will call the "variance." Therefore, you cannot rely on math to guarantee a win. So, why not assure yourself of a win by taking the profits when they come?

Arc, if you could guarantee me a royal flush every 40-thou or so hands, I would be showing a very handsome profit right now. I'm behind -- in the last year -- about 3 royals. And those three royals would give me a very nice overall profit at this point.

As I said before, if the math ain't working, gimme somethin' else that might do me better. And a quit when ahead strategy just might be it.
The problem is there is nothing better. The results of a group of players for a random game will form a bell curve around the expected return. That is a simple fact. All the wishing and hoping will not change that fact. Nor will choosing any particular time to quit.

Just to help you out I've developed a simulation program. It allows a win goal and loss limit as input. It runs through any number of sessions you would like. For a first run I set a win goal at 500 credits and a loss limit at 2500 playing BP. I think the results are interesting.

It turns out you get ahead by at least 5 credits 96% of the time. It turns out you win around 52% of your sessions. The return overall for 1000 sessions came out to 99.1% which is very close to the ER.

The math is the math.