On/off casino play strategy to generate offers

[jbjb]

While I am a recreational player my goal is only to win. I don't play to lose.

After all these years you've been gambling you're still in the hole by your own admission. So quit deluding yourself! You haven't "won" ANYTHING.

[Alan Mendelson]

After all these years you've been gambling you're still in the hole by your own admission. So quit deluding yourself! You haven't "won" ANYTHING.

Think about this for a minute: Why would anyone who wins talk about it on the web?

[whodat]

I rarely log in here because of this nonsense. It Alan you are 1000000 percent wrong - it has ZERO TO DO WITH WIN OR LOSS it's all based on adt- how can you not understand this,not trying to be mean but you play a lot- you should be aware of how this occurs , feel free to pm me and I will give you exact matrix at almost any property you play at just not going to post publicly

Robsingerwho,
I am interested. I just PM'ed you to ask about the ADT.

[Alan Mendelson]

it's all based on adt- how can you not understand this,

Actually, this player would have a lousy ADT if the $10,000 of coin-in wasn't all played in one day.

The last thing a casino wants is for a player to play small amounts per day while staying in a casino for several days.

I hope you understand this.

[redietz]

Think about this for a minute: Why would anyone who wins talk about it on the web?

It's a fast way to recruit hundreds of students to train out of the goodness of one's heart, plus one gets to show photos of one's house, which is important.

(That was an inside joke.)


P.S. If the way someone wins is not a system per se, then I suppose there wouldn't be much harm.

[Alan Mendelson]

I can give you three reasons why a player who actually wins would report that he only loses:

Reason #1: Ex wife #1
Reason #2: Ex wife #2
Reason #3: Ex wife #3

There are a lot more reasons why a winning player would not publicly post that he wins and only reports that he loses.

[jbjb]

If those were your real reasons, you wouldn't post pictures of $100k royals!

If I had any reason to hide money from anyone, I wouldn't even show a $5 win.

[Alan Mendelson]

Gee jbjb do you expect me to reveal my real reasons for what I do online?

I have nothing to sell, by the way. Heck, I don't even own this forum anymore.

But when I see people post about schemes that won't work... and this scheme about on and off play won't work... I'm going to call it out.

Now, maybe it worked for this particular guy, but for anyone else coming on this website they should see the red flags. This on/off scheme is just like a Rob Singer Special Play... sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

Me? I play by the book. I don't use Special Plays, and I don't play for comps.

[redietz]

I can give you three reasons why a player who actually wins would report that he only loses:

Reason #1: Ex wife #1
Reason #2: Ex wife #2
Reason #3: Ex wife #3

There are a lot more reasons why a winning player would not publicly post that he wins and only reports that he loses.

How about "current wife?"

[Alan Mendelson]

How about "current wife?"

Excellent point. If you are married you are between a rock and a hard place.

On one hand, if you don't win you get the crap beaten out of you.
On the other hand, if you do win, you are left with the crap and everything else is taken out from under you.

[Dan Druff]

Gee jbjb do you expect me to reveal my real reasons for what I do online?

I have nothing to sell, by the way. Heck, I don't even own this forum anymore.

But when I see people post about schemes that won't work... and this scheme about on and off play won't work... I'm going to call it out.

Now, maybe it worked for this particular guy, but for anyone else coming on this website they should see the red flags. This on/off scheme is just like a Rob Singer Special Play... sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

Me? I play by the book. I don't use Special Plays, and I don't play for comps.

Alan, let's look at your last line first.

"I play the book. I don't use special plays, and I don't play for comps."

Question: How do casinos make money?

If people who "played by the book" weren't destined to lose in the long term (and even the medium term), the casinos would all be broke.

Playing by the book guarantees losses overall, unless you get ridiculously lucky and hit some gigantic jackpot.

APs seek to NOT play by the book, and turn the odds in their favor. An AP who does it correctly (and I'm not talking about pseudo-APs who don't really know what they're doing) WILL win in the long run, unless they get really unlucky.

Being an AP does NOT guarantee winning in the short term.

But let me put it this way:

If I sat down at a 102% return VP machine and played 1000 hands, while you sat at a 99% machine and played 1000 hands, there would be a reasonable chance that I might lose and you might win.

However, if each of us played these respective machines regularly, it would be almost a certainty that I would be ahead and you would be behind.

That's how mathematics works.

Mathematics actually figures into most things you encounter in every day life. Gambling is just one of them.

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However, while mathematics is rarely questioned in non-gambling venues, some people seem to deride it in the gambling world, using nonsense excuses such as "anything can happen" or "a 51% chance to win means that you're still going to lose a lot of the time".

The on/off play is something which would give the person utilizing it a very high chance to come out ahead. I don't know why you're knocking it. I have seen it at work.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan I am following the math. Your friend lost $1400. The free play he got after that loss didn't make him whole.

[RS__]

Dan I am following the math. Your friend lost $1400. The free play he got after that loss didn't make him whole.

-$1400 + $1500 = ???

[Dan Druff]

Dan I am following the math. Your friend lost $1400. The free play he got after that loss didn't make him whole.

My friend redeemed the following after his $1400 loss:

- A "free" (actually highly discounted) NCL cruise

- A bunch of free food

- Thousands in freeplay, which he converted to thousands of real $

- A few nights at Paris Las Vegas for NYE


I'd say he did pretty damn well.

[redietz]

If a man loses a war each year, he's not the best advisor on how to win battles.

Old Wise Jungle Saying

[Alan Mendelson]

My friend redeemed the following after his $1400 loss:

- A "free" (actually highly discounted) NCL cruise

- A bunch of free food

- Thousands in freeplay, which he converted to thousands of real $

- A few nights at Paris Las Vegas for NYE


I'd say he did pretty damn well.

Care to give an accounting instead of general terms? I am sure you are aware that losing $1400 is not a requirement for offers such as cruises, hotel, NYE, etc. This is the chink in the armour.

Had you said he won money AND got these offers I'd say well done. But he lost $1400.

Your "play" here pales in comparison to someone who goes to Vegas and checks into three different hotels to claim three different free play offers.

Your friend is only trying to justify a $1400 loss.

[redietz]

If I could trade $1400 for $1500 in free play and some NYE nights, I think I'd take it. I think anyone would take it.

What is it you are arguing, Alan? That it wasn't a good trade off? Of course it was. That it couldn't be duplicated? Well, that's a fair argument, but barring evidence it can't be, why dismiss the idea?

[Alan Mendelson]

If I could trade $1400 for $1500 in free play and some NYE nights, I think I'd take it. I think anyone would take it.

What is it you are arguing, Alan? That it wasn't a good trade off? Of course it was. That it couldn't be duplicated? Well, that's a fair argument, but barring evidence it can't be, why dismiss the idea?

Dan is a 7 Stars player. He gets free nights in Vegas, he also gets a free cruise, he also gets other free offers associated with 7 Stars -- and he is not required to play.

In 2015 I earned 7 Stars with a profit and I was under no additional obligation to continue playing and if I wanted I could have claimed cruises and free hotel stays with no need to keep playing.

I'm sorry... what Dan has reported here is nothing more than a justification about losing $1400. And, redietz, getting $1500 of free play does not translate into $1400 of cash automatically.

Also... and we seem to have forgotten about this... I still have my doubts that only ONE THOUSAND TIER POINTS generated all of this. Remember, $10,000 coin-in at video poker is only 1,000 tier points. I'd like to hear from other Total Rewards members to find out what they get after earning 1,000 tier points?

I think this particular player might have gotten something extra that OTHERS would not get. And if he did slip through the cracks it means that what this player got might not be available to others. In a sense, he might have won "the lottery" in offers. Can this be duplicated by any other player?

It reminds me of the story of the lucky player who sat down at a machine that accidentally gave him too many tier points for coin-in and allowed him to make 7 Stars for only a fraction of what the regular coin-in requirement would be. Some people do get lucky.

[Bill Yung]

I think this particular player might have gotten something extra that OTHERS would not get. And if he did slip through the cracks it means that what this player got might not be available to others. In a sense, he might have won "the lottery" in offers. Can this be duplicated by any other player?

It reminds me of the story of the lucky player who sat down at a machine that accidentally gave him too many tier points for coin-in and allowed him to make 7 Stars for only a fraction of what the regular coin-in requirement would be. Some people do get lucky.

Every casino success story which I have looked at in some detail has something wrong with it. A fatal flaw.

The whole of the AP stuff is based on handing out "free advice", and being paid for it by the lucky winners. The losers can't exactly charge for the wrong advice, now, can they? And half the people will win. More people take the place of the losers who give it up. The pyramid of nutty feedback takes over for decades until the young don't bother anymore, for one reason or another, and it all collapses.

People get carried away with their systems when those work. Feeding frenzy for the system sellers, and AP gurus. You can't say anything, of course, like any good train wreck. Forum owners will ban you, and the idiots carry on. A no-lose scenario for the scammers, and pretend literati. (Come on, now, no one ever went to a casino to become schooled in the finer things. No professors lecturing there.)

[redietz]

Bill,

Two problems with what you just said: if every success story you examined has a fatal flaw, then there's a good chance you're either not examining too many or something may be wrong with your examination. That is, unless you somehow decide raw winning in gambling isn't worth the wear-and-tear, moral debauchery, and so on, which are relative, subjective judgements.

Second, I recommend Addiction By Design by Natasha Schull. She, and others, spend a good deal of time in casinos, and I would list what's to be learned among the finer things.

Basically, the idea that no one wins outside of what variance dictates is a myth. Dan wasn't selling any system here. Poker players can win. Sports bettors can win. Horse players can win.

You folks missed an obvious and key piece of what Dan had to say, and what I suspect is the reason his friend scored well. If you can't figure it out, then in the spirit of "nobody on the internet is going to tell you how to win," I'll keep my mouth closed. Hint: I suspect this would not work for Alan. Or Bob Dancer.