Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
I would like to hear all opinions, then, on why I can walk in on a certain day and for 3 hours STRUGGLE to hit just one quad and on another day hit quads, straight flushes, etc. easily in the same 2-3 hour period. How does that satisfy true randomness? I once went ALL day without a quad.
Oh, and since no one was aware of the season, I hope all had a Merry Christmas and I wish a Happy New Year.
What you are experiencing is plain and simple variance. Don't forget that when you are playing video poker that you have an opponent. That opponent is the house. When you are experiencing negative variance the house is experiencing positive variance. When you are experiencing positive variance the house is experiencing negative variance....at least on the game you are playing.

The ploppy considers hitting a couple of quads in a hundred games as random. But if the ploppy goes 800 games without a quad then the game must be rigged. He/she is being cheated. That's just how the human brain reacts to it.

In a game like 9/6 Jacks, per the strategy, the frequency of making quads is 423. That means that on average, per the long run, you will average making quads about every 423 games. But what is your real chance of making quads in your next 423 games? Taking variance into account you only have about a 65% chance. About 35% of the time it will take you more than 423 games to hit a quad. And sometimes it can get pretty extreme.

I'm not as boned up on some formula's in probability. But RS once showed this kind of math. With the cycle being 423 what is the chance it will take you two cycles to hit a quad? The answer is 1 in 7. What is the chance it will take you 3 cycles? The answer is 1 in 25. I don't know the answer for 4 cycles or higher but it is well within probability of happening to you if you play long enough.

But flip it over. Have you ever hit back to back quads? I have. Once you make a quad what is the chance that you will make a quad on your next hand. The answer is 1 in 423. You can assign a probability of making a quad in your next 25 hands, 50 hands, 100 hands, etc.

I remember onetime going 4400 games between quads playing 9/6 Jacks. That's about 10.3 cycles. Someone told me the chance of that occurring is 1 in 22,000. But there is always a flipside. In one stretch playing Flush Attack, where the quad frequency is 429 and the flush frequency is 55, I once hit 7 quads but had only made 3 flushes.

Playing a few hour stretch where you average making a quad about every 200 games seems normal to the ploppy. The game is on the up and up. But if the ploppy goes 1000 games without a quad the machine just has to be rigged against him/her. That's just how people think. But all they are experiencing is normal variance.

Now get out there and hit those quads.