At first Rob said he never holds kickers. Then he said he will hold a kicker if the draw has a chance to get him to his win goal. He plays Triple Double Bonus. Rob uses a progressive betting system. The denoms are $1, $2, $5, $10, $25, $100. According to Rob his bankroll for each level is 400 times the denom (80 betting units per level)
So at the first level, $1 denom, he could never be stuck more than $400. So let's say some time during that level he is dealt AAA2J. The first thing about it is Four Aces with a Kicker pays $4000 at this level. Holding AAA2 Rob would have a 1 in 47 chance on the draw to obtain his win goal. If he only holds AAA then his chance of hitting Four Aces improves to 1 in 23.5. But his chances of hitting the Four Aces with the kicker is reduced to 1 in 98. Here's the math:
47 cards left in the deck on a two card draw; 47X46/2X1 = 1081 two-card combinations. In order to make Four Aces with a kicker Rob would have to catch the Ace with one of the 11 small cards left in the deck. So 1081/11 = 98.27
So which draw is Rob doing to take? Both draws give Rob a chance to hit his win goal. Drawing to AAA leaves him just a slim chance to get to his win goal. Drawing to AAA2 gives him twice the chance to get to his win goal. So which draw do you take in this situation, Rob?
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