Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

[coach belly]

We've been crushed on plays many times.

If you have been crushed on +EV plays many times, then how does this formula apply to what you do?

But for positive expectation players the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.

[RS__]

If you have been crushed on +EV plays many times, then how does this formula apply to what you do?

Other times you absolutely crush the casino. Sometimes you win, sometimes lose. Sometimes win big, or lose big. Or sometimes just about break even. Overall, the wins outweigh the losses.

If you're getting paid 1.1:1 on an even coin flip, sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. Sometimes it'll be a big win or a big loss. Unless you're mentally retarded, you can figure out in the end, you'll be making money.

[mickeycrimm]

Big difference. Greed kills, addiction fosters greed, and it doesn't matter one bit if it's an 8/5 BP game or an 11/5 BP one.

Rob, with your pull, could you talk a casino into putting in some $5 11/5 Bonus Poker. You can guarantee them that the bank will get tremendous action everyday. The bank will probably be full of players 24 hours a day. And you can take full credit with the casino for bringing them all that action....and all the money they have a chance to win. Think about it, Rob. It would be a big feather in your cap. LOL!

[Alan Mendelson]

I once had dinner with some execs at Caesars. I couldn't convince them to change their 7/5 Bonus games to 8/5 with the argument that their 7/5 machines were idle.

[redietz]

One of the main problems I have with Rob is that he has studiously avoided saying if or when his strategies fail. Five thousand posts, and you can't pull it out of him.

As a counterpoint, I can state unequivocally that I would cease betting straight plays on sports if one had to lay 6/5 as opposed to 11/10 (or 108/100, which is the bulk of my plays). The difference in those ratios basically eliminates any edge I have.

Rob will never say at what point he will fail. He claims to win no matter what, which is just absurd. He knows it's absurd. That's why he doesn't ever address it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob has mentioned going thru his allotted trip bankroll at least once. Wasn't it something like $17,800? But failure of his system is a word he has never used.

Do APs ever mention failure? It seems they only discuss the advantage they have on each bet they make.

[redietz]

I don't consider myself an "AP," Alan, but I take a fair beating about once every seven years. That's no secret. My results were published publicly in the 80's and 90's. Plus there are a fair number of seasons in my 40 years that are marginal either way.

I've known one sports gambler, recently deceased, who never had a losing year. But what he was doing wasn't really gambling in any normal sense. He was a middles-hunting, 24/7, all-sport virtuoso. He had international arbitrage software before most people had the internet.

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually redeitz, you are not part of the AP/VP argument. Sports betting is literally in a league of its own.

I still think Rob won the money he said he won, and I doubt that the so-called APs who play video poker have any kind of wins which rival Rob's.

That doesn't mean that Rob's system is valid. I think he got damn lucky doing what he does. But luck is a big part of video poker. Because, as I've said before, you might know the "100% correct strategy" but if the RNG doesn't give you the card(s) you need the strategy doesn't work.

[coach belly]

Sometimes you win, sometimes lose.

Are the same +EV plays always available?

For any given +EV play...where the player has a mathematical edge...if the player (or team) loses (or gets crushed) then how does this formula apply?

the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.

[a2a3dseddie]

As far as the greed comment: playing the best pay table doesn't mean you'll win. We all agree, don't we? Rob is also saying there is a risk of giving back in the same session that which you just won, so he leaves with a big win.

More or less risk than the next session?

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey wrote: the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.

coach belly wrote:For any given +EV play...where the player has a mathematical edge...if the player (or team) loses (or gets crushed) then how does this formula apply?

The casinos have a big edge at roulette. But they have days where the roulette wheel loses them money. Some days they get crushed. But they keep the wheel up and running. If you look at their results over a reasonable period of time you will see that the wheel makes them good money. An AP works edges just like the casinos do. Some days we take it in the shorts. Other days we win. The money gets thrown back and forth. And over time a little bit more of that money lands and stays on my side than it does theirs.

[coach belly]

over time a little bit more of that money lands and stays on my side than it does theirs.

How much time is required before the positive expectation results in an actual profit?

the more time I put in on the play the more I make.

Is this for an individual play of some sort...where positive expectation only exists for a defined period of time?

For instance....a session on one of the pre-soaked machines that you spin off until the edge is gone?

the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.

If the net edge is positive, what volume of play exists such that the earn is negative?...where the player loses on the play?

[jbjb]

How much time is required before the positive expectation results in an actual profit?

This is what "n0" teaches us. You can read about it on Norms bjtheforum.

[mickeycrimm]

How much time is required before the positive expectation results in an actual profit?

There are a myriad of examples. It depends on the type of game it is, how big the edge is, and how the game is configured. In video poker, most of the edges to be found are pretty thin. We're generally talking less than 4%. Depending on whether its a progressive or flattop, and what type of game it is, Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Bonus, etc., we're talking royal odds between 33,000 to 48,000, depending on the strategy used. My cruising speed is 1000 HPH. So unless I run extremely lucky we're talking a lot of hours for the edge to manifest itself. That is, if all the edge is in making the royal.

[RS__]

How much time is required before the positive expectation results in an actual profit?

The question is a bit vague.

Do you mean how long until you should be in the profit? On a game like FPDW, you are always earning EV playing it through and through. There is no promotion or "waiting period" before you get your EV.

Most promotions, you have to wait some amount of time before the part that makes it +EV comes in. For example, I played a $100 loss rebate where you get back half the losses the same day and the other half the next day. Not that it's really worth anything, but if a team played it (say 4 people), they should be in the profit by day #2.

Sometimes you have to wait a few months before you get your money back.


If your question is about how long until you can guarantee a profit....well, there's never any guarantees. But if you want to determine the probability of being ahead after X amount of time (or # of rounds), one way is to use N0. One N0 = EV. So after N0 # of rounds, being down 1 standard deviation means you're exactly breaking even. If you've played 3x N0, then being down 3 SD's means you're breaking even. At this point, you are essentially guaranteed profit.

Is this for an individual play of some sort...where positive expectation only exists for a defined period of time?

For instance....a session on one of the pre-soaked machines that you spin off until the edge is gone?

If the net edge is positive, what volume of play exists such that the earn is negative?...where the player loses on the play?

It depends on the play. If it's something like "do $10k coin in and get $500 in cash (on a 99% machine)", then playing to $10k will net $400 in EV. Playing to $50k on the machine would result in $0 in EV. You only have the advantage for the first $10k coin in. If, for whatever reason, you continue to play, anything after that is -EV, even though the sum could still be +EV. IE: You play to $20k coin in, your EV is +$300.

If I was offered that promotion, I'd play it to $10k coin in, collect my $500, and continue on to somewhere else. If they offered that non-stop and I could keep getting $500 for every $10k I played....then I would continue to play that as long as I could. In the second scenario (unlimited $500 for $10k coin in), no amount of play above $10k coin in results in the play being negative.

[RS__]

Are the same +EV plays always available?

For any given +EV play...where the player has a mathematical edge...if the player (or team) loses (or gets crushed) then how does this formula apply?

No. The same plays are not always available (okay, FPDW is still available, but eventually it won't). Sometimes an old play dies, other times a new play shows up.


The formula doesn't change because you lost or won in the past. How does the probability of a quarter being flipped (heads or tails) change based on the last one landing on tails? Hint: It doesn't.

[coach belly]

So unless I run extremely lucky we're talking a lot of hours for the edge to manifest itself. That is, if all the edge is in making the royal.

So your formula to calculate the earn would not apply to a play for a progressive royal, since less volume would result in a higher earn, rather than this scenario...

But for positive expectation players the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn. In short, the more time I put in on the play the more I make.

Assuming that your play for a progressive royal carries a positive expectation, if someone else (not you) hits the royal, then you have lost on a +EV play.

Is that correct?

[coach belly]

If it's something like "do $10k coin in and get $500 in cash (on a 99% machine)", then playing to $10k will net $400 in EV.

If I was offered that promotion, I'd play it to $10k coin in, collect my $500, and continue on to somewhere else.

If after playing $10K coin in you were down more than $500, then you would have lost money on this play.

Is that correct?

[RS__]

If after playing $10K coin in you were down more than $500, then you would have lost money on this play.

Is that correct?

Yeah. That's correct. Your point?

[Alan Mendelson]

More or less risk than the next session?

Yes you have the same risk in the next session which is why it's a good idea to take the money and run while you have it.