Have you ever been up 25% of your bankroll?

[Alan Mendelson]

I had no idea Mickey was so fast. He said his cruising speed at Video Poker is 1,000 hands per hour. That's less than 4 seconds per hand. Damn that's fast.

[coach belly]

Your point?

I'm trying to understand how mickey's formula applies to an individual play...such as your example above.

If the earn is the product of the player's edge and play volume, then what volume of play exists such that the earn will be negative?

Also, for a play that has a defined period, then how does this apply?

the more time I put in on the play the more I make.

[mickeycrimm]

I had no idea Mickey was so fast. He said his cruising speed at Video Poker is 1,000 hands per hour. That's less than 4 seconds per hand. Damn that's fast.

Alan, 1000 HPH is really not that fast. I call it "cruising speed" because I'm not pushing it. If I try to play faster-I can-I become mistake prone. If you wear a wrist watch then count yourself down for 1 minute then multiply it by 60. You will probably find that you are faster than you think you are.

[mickeycrimm]

Are the same +EV plays always available??

No. The one constant of AP play is everything changes. You have to continually monitor everything that's going on. When I was in Nevada, Laughlin was my home base. I had full RFB in Laughlin for 362 days out of the year. I had a mail box in the post office at the Riverside. I belonged to every slot club in the state. I received mail offers from the Nevada casinos on a monthly basis, that included comped rooms, cash vouchers, promotions, events, etc. I had regular things to do in Laughlin like vulturing accumulator slots, playing advantage video poker, playing live poker. But when I got a good offer through the mail I took it.

[a2a3dseddie]

Yes you have the same risk in the next session which is why it's a good idea to take the money and run while you have it.

So if the risk to your bankroll is the same in THIS weekends session as it is in NEXT weekends session, what difference does it make? Two 4 hour sessions over two weekends or one eight hour session... does it matter if the risk is the same?

[mickeycrimm]

Assuming that your play for a progressive royal carries a positive expectation, if someone else (not you) hits the royal, then you have lost on a +EV play. Is that correct?

Sure. But its not the end of the story. If you are a lone wolf like I was then you are a big dog to be the one who hits the royal. But the money I won on the small percentage of progressive plays where I was the one that hit the royal well outran the money I lost on the bulk of plays where someone else hit the royal.

[coach belly]

the money I won on the small percentage of progressive plays where I was the one that hit the royal well outran the money I lost on the bulk of plays where someone else hit the royal.

How many progressive royal +EV plays do you need before you hit the royal?

Is it possible...or probable...that an individual player (not part of a team) will never hit on one of these plays?

[mickeycrimm]

How many progressive royal +EV plays do you need before you hit the royal? Is it possible...or probable...that an individual player (not part of a team) will never hit on one of these plays?

Yes, its possible....but not probable if you have a large enough sample space. I'm not as boned up on this type of math as RS is but he once posted that the probability that it will take you two cycles to hit a royal is 1 in 7, three cycles 1 in 20, four cycles 1 in 55. My personal record is 5.5 cycles between royals. The flip side is twice in my career I've hit 3 royals within four hours of play. I've played multi-millions of hands of video poker. I've seen the extreme from both sides.

[coach belly]

Yes, its possible....but not probable if you have a large enough sample space. I'm not as boned up on this type of math as RS is but he once posted that the probability that it will take you two cycles to hit a royal is 1 in 7, three cycles 1 in 20, four cycles 1 in 55. My personal record is 5.5 cycles between royals. The flip side is twice in my career I've hit 3 royals within four hours of play. I've played multi-millions of hands of video poker. I've seen the extreme from both sides.

But we are talking about the +EV play, where the progressive royal pays enough for the player to have a mathematical edge.

You can hit a royal within the cycle, but it must be a progressive royal that pays enough to make the play +EV, otherwise you are playing a -EV game...correct?

If the bank of machines feeding the progressive is full with players in every seat, is each player playing at +EV until the royal hits?

[Rob.Singer]

This is where nonsensical long term theory gets thrown in. Every player likes to claim they're all playing at an "advantage" in such a situation, yet the only one who actually wins any money is the one who hits the royal. And what are the other players left with besides a whole stack of phantom bucks? You....they make believe that it'll be they who hit the next "+EV" progressive, which is a perfect example why the term "AP" is nothing more than a confidence-building state of mind. Frank Kneeland didn't play progressives with his own money because he didn't have any. A perfect example.

I've stopped at two of these bars mickey claims to clobber and 1000 HPH is totally unrealistic on the type of machines they have. The more rope you guys give him, the higher up he hangs himself from. Next thing he'll be claiming is 2000 HPH on keno machines

[mickeycrimm]

This is where nonsensical long term theory gets thrown in. Every player likes to claim they're all playing at an "advantage" in such a situation, yet the only one who actually wins any money is the one who hits the royal. And what are the other players left with besides a whole stack of phantom bucks? You....they make believe that it'll be they who hit the next "+EV" progressive, which is a perfect example why the term "AP" is nothing more than a confidence-building state of mind. Frank Kneeland didn't play progressives with his own money because he didn't have any. A perfect example.

I've stopped at two of these bars mickey claims to clobber and 1000 HPH is totally unrealistic on the type of machines they have. The more rope you guys give him, the higher up he hangs himself from. Next thing he'll be claiming is 2000 HPH on keno machines

2400 games per hour on some keno games, Rob. But thank you for sharing your ignorant expertise on the subject. Eat my dust, Rob.

[Alan Mendelson]

So if the risk to your bankroll is the same in THIS weekends session as it is in NEXT weekends session, what difference does it make? Two 4 hour sessions over two weekends or one eight hour session... does it matter if the risk is the same?

The risk is the same. But walking out of the casino with money is a wonderful feeling. Since I'm a recreational player, I want that wonderful feeling of walking out with money. You APs please keep playing if that's what makes your day.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey tell us more about your stuffed mailbox full of free play offers? Just how much are they? The routine offers I get are $250 once a month. Sometimes I get an offer for $500. I mention this because neither offer makes economic sense. But having the offer supplement a trip for fun is wonderful.

I want to know how much of a free play offer makes economic sense to you, an AP? Please be specific. I want to work out the math including the cost of travel and other expenditures and THE FREQUENCY that you get these offers.

[RS__]

I'm trying to understand how mickey's formula applies to an individual play...such as your example above.

If the earn is the product of the player's edge and play volume, then what volume of play exists such that the earn will be negative?

Also, for a play that has a defined period, then how does this apply?

I've already answered your questions. It seems to me you may have failed elementary math.

Which 2 or more positive numbers, when added or multiplied by each other, result in a negative number?

I'll give you two hints:

1) This is the same question you're asking me.
2) No such numbers exist.

[RS__]

Mickey tell us more about your stuffed mailbox full of free play offers? Just how much are they? The routine offers I get are $250 once a month. Sometimes I get an offer for $500. I mention this because neither offer makes economic sense. But having the offer supplement a trip for fun is wonderful.

I want to know how much of a free play offer makes economic sense to you, an AP? Please be specific. I want to work out the math including the cost of travel and other expenditures and THE FREQUENCY that you get these offers.

I have no idea what Mickey is getting, and I won't speculate on what he's getting. I'm curious, Alan, why do you ask questions to which you are quite likely to say "impossible" or something of the sort?

[a2a3dseddie]

The risk is the same. But walking out of the casino with money is a wonderful feeling. Since I'm a recreational player, I want that wonderful feeling of walking out with money. You APs please keep playing if that's what makes your day.

Lol, I'm no AP. Far from it. Like you I'm a recreational player. You're right... walking out of the casino with money IS a wonderful feeling. That's my hope any time I go to a casino as well.

In fact, "quitting while ahead", "pausing while ahead", "win goals and loss limits" are great if it limits your time at a -EV game, if you are prone to "tilt" or "steam", if you've had to much to drink celebrating the win, if you're tired and prone to mistakes or if you've just plain had enough "fun" for that session.

BUT, as you said the RISK to your bankroll is the SAME each time you play, so "win goals and loss limits" and any other "money management systems" are not viable "strategies" to use on any -EV game (be it VP, Craps, Roulette or Three Card Poker) to build your net worth despite what some charlatans/scam artists may say.

[jbjb]

The risk is the same. But walking out of the casino with money is a wonderful feeling. Since I'm a recreational player, I want that wonderful feeling of walking out with money. You APs please keep playing if that's what makes your day.

Again, how much money are you ahead lifetime at gambling????? That's right....you're IN THE HOLE!!! You haven't walked out with ANY MONEY!!! Just getting returned a tiny portion of what you already had.

Alan, you're BEST BET is to just leave your money in the bank to earn interest. Stay out of the casino!! You haven't a clue!!

[Alan Mendelson]

jbjb you're absolutely right. I am in the hole with casino gambling. We agree.

[Alan Mendelson]

BUT, as you said the RISK to your bankroll is the SAME each time you play, so "win goals and loss limits" and any other "money management systems" are not viable "strategies" to use on any -EV game (be it VP, Craps, Roulette or Three Card Poker) to build your net worth despite what some charlatans/scam artists may say.

That's where we differ.

Win goals and loss limits must be used all the time, EVEN ON POSITIVE EXPECTATION games. The key word on +EV games is "expectation." Don't forget that.

[redietz]

That's where we differ.

Win goals and loss limits must be used all the time, EVEN ON POSITIVE EXPECTATION games. The key word on +EV games is "expectation." Don't forget that.

Alan, when you say this it becomes evident you are used to having a certain bankroll each of your sessions and that you are wagering way too much per bet for that bankroll.

And really, when was the last time you played tens of thousands of hands on a positive expectation game? The math can be figured out regarding risk of ruin for virtually any game. The AP's know what they're doing. Some of the scenarios mickey describes are as likely to result in his ruin as your stepping outside tomorrow will result in you being hit by lightning. You still step outside.