Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
I maintain that I am asking questions to gather information.

You keep insinuating that my questions are an attempt to lead you somewhere, that I'm trying to get you to say something.

Please share with the group...where are these questions headed?...what's my agenda?
You're asking a question in one context then attempting to refute the given answer based on a different context. "Everything is one long session" is true, when it comes to calculating and figuring out how much you're expected to be up or down after a certain number of hands. In other words, 10 sessions of 500 hands or 1 session of 5,000 hands are both the same thing, when figuring out how much you should be up or down for those 5,000 hands (whether in one session or over 10 sessions).

By taking people's words out of context, you're trying to discredit them.

FWIW -- You can think of all of your play in your lifetime as being one big session. After all, isn't the goal to make money overall? Or are you & Rob & Alan more concerned about how frequently you have a winning session or trip, even if it means you're in the negative? I know some people who win very frequently, almost every session....the problem lies in the fact they lose way more on a losing trip than they end up winning...and overall, continue to lose on average.



Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
I think I understand...you've explained expected value, and how it applies to the expected overall cost of playing.

I'm concerned with the ambiguity of the following phrase...



"in the long run of things"...what's that mean?

I'm more interested in the session, as defined by a number of hands played.

I assume that this has been determined through simulations...

Considering a session of 2400 hands (4 hours x 600 hph)...what percentage of sessions is a player expected to lose?

Assume 8/5 BP and a bankroll sufficient to cover a maximum loss in any session...12000 credits.
VPW shows a probability to win is 29.97%. Probability to lose is 69.77%.


Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
This speaks to the claim that individual sessions do not exist, it's all one lifetime session...with pauses.

Although among APs, there seems to be a difference of opinion...
If you can't figure out what was being said in those quotes....I'm not sure what to say. Try reading them again until it sinks in. Let's start off with an easy question:

What's the difference between flipping a coin 1 time every day for 100 days versus flipping a coin 100 times in 1 day?

If you're really smart, try this one: How do those 2 compare to flipping a coin 10 times a day for 10 days?



What's funny (sad, actually), is every time Alan posts a $20k or $100k royal, a big craps win, or whatever else -- Rob pipes in saying something about "quitting when ahead" and that's how winners play, yada yada ya. The interesting part, of course, is that Alan is STILL DOWN life-time in gambling. You'd think with how much they say something like, "That's how a winner plays" that he'd actually be a winner.

Mickey already showed the math. I don't remember exactly what it was, but something along the lines of every time you hit a royal, it cost you $28,000 in losses to get that $20,000 win (for a net loss of $8,000). If this is what y'all consider to be a "win", then by all means, enjoy your -$8,000 "wins".