Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
redietz you've fallen for the casino trap too...

The loss rebates only kick in AFTER you lose your money. Do you understand that? At that point the casinos HAVE your money. Then they are giving you free play that still is more likely to lose AND keeps you in the casino so you can lose even more. It's a bad play just like every other bad play in a casino but this pig has a different shade of lipstick.

Let's get back to basics: you need to play to win. Thinking that the loss rebate is some kind of insurance policy is ridiculous.
Nobody says you have to lose the first day of the promo. I think I've done three of these, and I quit after making about 50% of the amount of the loss rebate twice without ever using the loss rebate. I basically do what FAB did. You seem to be missing the point that if you're ahead, you can cease at any point and take the profits. In fact, this exercise has given me an understanding of the obsession with win goals. If you have a loss rebate, I can see the utility. Unfortunately, when gambling without a loss rebate, the comps and free rooms you accrue don't really count as actual loss rebates.
Thank you, you proved the point. You quit when ahead.
Alan, you're missing the point. Having a loss rebate completely changes the way you play a game. Having a loss rebate is the primary motivation for me to play a negative expectation game. It completely changes what you do and how you approach it.

That's why I said it's a rare opportunity for me to view the world from the perspective of people who play negative expectation games with the idea that win goals are meaningful. Without the loss rebates, however, it makes no sense to play them and no sense to configure win points.

What jb and mickey have said is correct. The way I play these (and FAB played it) is overly conservative and suboptimal. What jb quoted is optimal.