Any Experience with M Resort $500 Loss Rebate?

[RS__]

Alan's been a lost cause for a while now.

Sometimes I think I'm being trolled, but then I realize most gamblers are the same. For example if a casino drawing offers a choice of either $1000 cash or $2000 freeplay (non-reportable), usually some winners will choose cash, and the cash recipients will be more certain of their decision.

I'm sure many gamblers roll their eyes at the possibility that any loss rebate could be player-favorable.

I don't think it's even gamblers not thinking a promotion can be player favorable, but that's just not even in the realm of their thinking. It's not that some have heard of it but don't believe in it, but they've just never even heard of or considered that promotions can give the player an advantage.


I played a promotion about a year ago that was out of town. They ran the promo twice. There were gaps during the day where the promotion wasn't available, so we'd sometimes walk around and check out other machines and see if there were other APs there. We found some nice-enough people that seemed to be APs and talked with them a bit. Asked if they were from around there, if they were only here for this promotion or if there was other good stuff in town. Something seemed a bit off about them....like they genuinely didn't know what we were talking about (coin in, mail, other good promos, etc.). They asked where we were from and we said LV. They were like oh huh, what are you doing here? We're like -- uhh, we're here for the promo, duh.

Long story short, they were on the cusp of understanding what AP is, sort of. They understood the promotion was good, or rather, better than most other promotions. But they didn't understand the concept you can actually win from a promotion or that the promotion turns the advantage from the house to the player. They were going to be gambling anyway, just chose to go to the casino that had a promotion to give them something back so they lose less.


I think the same applies to a lot of people who work in casinos. Many dealers and even some floor personnel think card-counting can only decrease the house edge, but cannot give the player an advantage, because "the casino always has the advantage". (I used to be a dealer and talked with others during breaks or on dead tables.) A few floor/PB's thought card counting was illegal, but casinos don't arrest those cheaters because of public image or w/e. One thought because the casino is a corporation/company/business/etc. (ie: private land, not public/government-owned) that they didn't have to cash out your chips or TITO vouchers if they didn't want to, and don't even have to pay jackpots if they don't want to either.

[Rob.Singer]

Again, one need only look at the Wizard's "infamous words of wisdom" to understand why AP's come up so misguided when it comes to the basics of winning consistently at video poker--and why 5 more or less paytable credits here or there are NOT the most likely reason people win or lose any particular session. To refresh the one-track/true-believer minds here: "I'D RATHER MAKE A GOOD (aka, +EV) BET AND LOSE, THAN MAKE A BAD (aka, -EV) BET AND WIN!"

In other words, those phantom bucks sure are something special to AP's, and I'm sure he was sitting there counting them out in all his glory as he was begging for money from his forum members to keep liquid.

The reason I got involved in the Revel rebate was mainly to prove a few points to my LV "AP" friend. First, my strategy does indeed work, just as it has for me as I've continuously had 5 & 6 figure winning years for nearly 20 years straight. Secondly, I was schooling my friend that instead of going in either hoping to lose so he could use the rebate in order to attain his precious "+EV" out of his play on their negative machines, or utilizing his flawed thinking that he would best be playing only hi-variance games on his first $100k go-around....he could go in understanding that he could actually WIN! and leave after attaining our per-determined win goal--which he did. When he got back and I met him at the Venetian for dinner, drinks and to p/u my cash, he met me with the joke "I really didn't win anything at all and in fact I LOST!...because all I played was -EV games"! A great joke, to be sure.

So Rob- how did you arrive at the 5 level win goal? Seriously. I know that $5 is the top level- or is it based on something else? I know also that a start at lower levels changes that.Thanks.

We had mini-win goals of $100 (which is based on the # of levels as well as the highest denom.) and he could play as many sessions as it took to reach our $8k quit & leave overall win goal.

[slingshot]

[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;49705]

Again, one need only look at the Wizard's "infamous words of wisdom" to understand why AP's come up so misguided when it comes to the basics of winning consistently at video poker--and why 5 more or less paytable credits here or there are NOT the most likely reason people win or lose any particular session. To refresh the one-track/true-believer minds here: "I'D RATHER MAKE A GOOD (aka, +EV) BET AND LOSE, THAN MAKE A BAD (aka, -EV) BET AND WIN!"

In other words, those phantom bucks sure are something special to AP's, and I'm sure he was sitting there counting them out in all his glory as he was begging for money from his forum members to keep liquid.

The reason I got involved in the Revel rebate was mainly to prove a few points to my LV "AP" friend. First, my strategy does indeed work, just as it has for me as I've continuously had 5 & 6 figure winning years for nearly 20 years straight. Secondly, I was schooling my friend that instead of going in either hoping to lose so he could use the rebate in order to attain his precious "+EV" out of his play on their negative machines, or utilizing his flawed thinking that he would best be playing only hi-variance games on his first $100k go-around....he could go in understanding that he could actually WIN! and leave after attaining our per-determined win goal--which he did. When he got back and I met him at the Venetian for dinner, drinks and to p/u my cash, he met me with the joke "I really didn't win anything at all and in fact I LOST!...because all I played was -EV games"! A great joke, to be sure.

So Rob- how did you arrive at the 5 level win goal? Seriously. I know that $5 is the top level- or is it based on something else? I know also that a start at lower levels changes that.Thanks.

We had mini-win goals of $100 (which is based on the # of levels as well as the highest denom.) and he could play as many sessions as it took to reach our $8k quit & leave overall win goal.[/QUOTE
So there could be a LOT of mini sessions and long play or it could end sooner. I know you have, for reasons once explained, stopped short of the last two levels with a partial goal attained and was wondering if there was any session this happened or was it all or nothing? This is good stuff, you know.

[jbjb]

[QUOTE=slingshot;49706]

So Rob- how did you arrive at the 5 level win goal? Seriously. I know that $5 is the top level- or is it based on something else? I know also that a start at lower levels changes that.Thanks.

We had mini-win goals of $100 (which is based on the # of levels as well as the highest denom.) and he could play as many sessions as it took to reach our $8k quit & leave overall win goal.[/QUOTE
So there could be a LOT of mini sessions and long play or it could end sooner. I know you have, for reasons once explained, stopped short of the last two levels with a partial goal attained and was wondering if there was any session this happened or was it all or nothing? This is good stuff, you know.

When will you people ever learn. Excluding these rebates. Goals don't help you win...

"The authors are correct that you will lose in the long term, but any short term profit you make is purely luck. It is not something you can count on or create by some strategy. There is simply no strategy to make a tidy profit in the short term. As for the advice about quitting when you are ahead as a*winning strategy, this is good advice provided that you are quitting for life. Otherwise, this statement is meaningless -*cards can't tell time."

Although this quote above and the post I'm linking from it is about baccarat, video poker is exactly the same.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/bacca...s-in-baccarat/

[slingshot]

[QUOTE=jbjb;49707]

We had mini-win goals of $100 (which is based on the # of levels as well as the highest denom.) and he could play as many sessions as it took to reach our $8k quit & leave overall win goal.[/QUOTE
So there could be a LOT of mini sessions and long play or it could end sooner. I know you have, for reasons once explained, stopped short of the last two levels with a partial goal attained and was wondering if there was any session this happened or was it all or nothing? This is good stuff, you know.

When will you people ever learn. Excluding these rebates. Goals don't help you win...

"The authors are correct that you will lose in the long term, but any short term profit you make is purely luck. It is not something you can count on or create by some strategy. There is simply no strategy to make a tidy profit in the short term. As for the advice about quitting when you are ahead as a*winning strategy, this is good advice provided that you are quitting for life. Otherwise, this statement is meaningless -*cards can't tell time."

Although this quote above and the post I'm linking from it is about baccarat, video poker is exactly the same.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/bacca...s-in-baccarat/

Then let me lose. All I want is an answer to my question. I already know your side of the story.

[Alan Mendelson]

Question: Who here has EVER profited from a rebate?

Answer: NO ONE has ever profited from a rebate. At best a rebate kept you in the game longer so that you could win a certain amount. If you have already lost the required buy-in to receive a rebate you are now at a bigger losing point. For example, if you use a $500 loss rebate on a video poker game that pays 99.2% you are now in this position:

You are playing $500 (free play rebate) X .992 - $500.

So, what does that do to your AP edge?

[slingshot]

Aww screw it. There's 5 different topics going on and I was just curious.

[redietz]

Question: Who here has EVER profited from a rebate?

Answer: NO ONE has ever profited from a rebate. At best a rebate kept you in the game longer so that you could win a certain amount. If you have already lost the required buy-in to receive a rebate you are now at a bigger losing point. For example, if you use a $500 loss rebate on a video poker game that pays 99.2% you are now in this position:

You are playing $500 (free play rebate) X .992 - $500.

So, what does that do to your AP edge?

This is silly. The $20 per losing hand rebate scenario playing 99.9% vp makes you a winner. The Don Johnson daily rebate scenario makes him a winner. The M model rebate scenario with 99.5% vp makes you a winner. Anyone who doesn't believe this should consult people with doctorates in math or who teach college math. If the answer to all of this is not clear, it's worth it going forward to pay some math professional $100 to settle these questions for you.

There's no utility in taking the word of a bunch of posters on an internet forum to settle gambling questions as important as these. Shell out the money and consult your local university math professionals.

Alan's a famous guy who's done a lot of gambling. Maybe he's correct. He certainly seems to think so. I'm not a math guy (although I played basketball for the Penn State math department intramural grad hoops team). Jb, mickey, RS, a2eddie and so on may all be trying to fool you with tales of advantage play. We all may be in the employ of casinos. I recommend any interested parties consult math pros and report back here with the results.

Ummmmmm, does anyone want to wager on the outcome?

[Alan Mendelson]

redietz, you yourself told me you did not win with rebates.

If rebates made players win, casinos would not give them.

[redietz]

If you can find the quote where I said I didn't win with rebates, please do so. The rebates are why I played the scenarios I did.

[bocce ball]

I don't think it's even gamblers not thinking a promotion can be player favorable, but that's just not even in the realm of their thinking. It's not that some have heard of it but don't believe in it, but they've just never even heard of or considered that promotions can give the player an advantage.

Or they may have considered it once, but dismissed the possibility with a ridiculous generalization.

If rebates made players win, casinos would not give them.

[jbjb]

If rebates made players win, casinos would not give them.

Nor would they offer FPDW, but they do. As usual, you don't have a clue.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you can find the quote where I said I didn't win with rebates, please do so. The rebates are why I played the scenarios I did.

You said you cashed out a win. You never claimed the rebate. You quit when ahead.

[Alan Mendelson]

If rebates made players win, casinos would not give them.

Nor would they offer FPDW, but they do. As usual, you don't have a clue.

Yes. It's a loss leader at 25-cents. Care to tell where you can play this at $5?

[redietz]

If you can find the quote where I said I didn't win with rebates, please do so. The rebates are why I played the scenarios I did.

You said you cashed out a win. You never claimed the rebate. You quit when ahead.

I was using the rebate every hand I played. Without a rebate, I would not have been playing. I'm ahead lifetime, so it goes without saying that every time I pause, it's while I'm ahead.

[Rob.Singer]

These rebates are nothing more, less, or different from casinos who offer 4X/7X/10/X points or those that promise 50% on food deals with 100 points earned or receiving a beanie with a propeller on top for so many tier points.....it's designed ONLY to rope as many players in as possible who'll then lose more than they intended to overall. AP's can window-dress them all they like in order to feel as if there's some hidden "advantage" to them, and to justify them running out to these stupid promos in order to get their fix without some of the guilt.

As Alan has said, no one ever won because of a loss rebate. You people seem to think that if you go to the M and lose $500, then come back and earn $175 out of your first $250 in free play and do the same on your next $250, you've somehow won. And armchair gamblers like mickey etc. ALREADY claim a win just because they've created a pocket full of phantom bucks out of the play!

Amazing?--yes. Unexpected?--no. Typical?--100%.

[redietz]

These rebates are nothing more, less, or different from casinos who offer 4X/7X/10/X points or those that promise 50% on food deals with 100 points earned or receiving a beanie with a propeller on top for so many tier points.....it's designed ONLY to rope as many players in as possible who'll then lose more than they intended to overall. AP's can window-dress them all they like in order to feel as if there's some hidden "advantage" to them, and to justify them running out to these stupid promos in order to get their fix without some of the guilt.

As Alan has said, no one ever won because of a loss rebate. You people seem to think that if you go to the M and lose $500, then come back and earn $175 out of your first $250 in free play and do the same on your next $250, you've somehow won. And armchair gamblers like mickey etc. ALREADY claim a win just because they've created a pocket full of phantom bucks out of the play!

Amazing?--yes. Unexpected?--no. Typical?--100%.

Well, Rob, I suggest you edit your 100% figure, as I do this stuff and I'm ahead lifetime playing video poker. So I guess my problem is what? I've "lost more than I intended to overall?" Hmmm, that doesn't apply. Maybe I haven't won as much as I should have overall? Yeah, let's go with that.

Rob, if you consult some math professionals who shoot down the rebate math, let us know who they are, will you?

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz I congratulate you for being ahead at VP. By your own admission you don't play much which means you were smart enough to QUIT WHILE AHEAD during your limited sessions. Good for you.

[jbjb]

Redietz I congratulate you for being ahead at VP. By your own admission you don't play much which means you were smart enough to QUIT WHILE AHEAD during your limited sessions. Good for you.

I'm not saying he'll win or lose, but is he ever plays again, did he really quit? I suggest you read Jacobsons article if you haven't already.

And I agree with Rob. The average civilians in casinos have no clue, like a few people here, on how to utilize the rebates properly and will lose. AP's on the other hand know a great freeroll when they see it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Jbjb the problem with your statement is this: once you use a loss rebate you've already lost.

You see, you guys are convinced that your "AP gambling math" gives you an advantage but no bank will finance you. However, the banks will finance the casinos who offer you those loss rebates that you think will help you beat the casinos. Sounds like the banks are crazy, right?