Any Experience with M Resort $500 Loss Rebate?

[Alan Mendelson]

Dannyj be honest: when you play at a casino that offers a loss rebate, is it your plan to lose your original money so you can claim the rebate?

I'll answer: of course not. Your plan is to win with your money.

If you have to claim the rebate it's because you are a loser. If the rebate isn't paid as 100% cash then the casino has an edge that will make it hard to win back what you initially loss.

If you want to win, then win. If you do lose your original money the rebate does give you a second chance.

It's good to have a second chance but second chances should not be part of your plan.

[kewlJ]

Why is this so hard to understand? A loss rebate is basically a free roll.

Let's say a $500 loss rebate. You play aggressively with your own money, trying to hit whatever Target you have chosen...something substantial, a substantial win.

If you fail to do so and lose the $500, you get the rebate in free play, which you then play through conservatively. Even if you play a 'bad' video poker game with say 98% payback, that $500 free play (rebate) is worth expected value of $490. You may not return exactly $490 of course. Maybe you get unlucky and return $450, maybe you hit a couple small jackpots and return $550. Doesn't matter, the expected value is $490.

So you go into the rebate with chance to win big (whatever your target is) vs a loss expectation of $10. Who wouldn't take that all day long, every day! Nobody is trying to cash in on the rebate. The rebate is simply the insurance policy. I just don't get why there is even a discussion about this?

And if your argument is that the player won't stop once he/she plays the free play through once, and will lose it all.....then you are exactly the type of schmuck the casino is looking for.

[mickeycrimm]

Alan, I've been doing a little research into AP strategies for loss rebate promotions. Here's one that has led to some casino execs disqualifying ELECTRONIC ROULETTE from these promotions. Casino execs always learn these things from getting their asses kicked by AP's....then make adjustments to the promotion. On a $500 loss rebate:

Plan A: Bet $50 on 10 numbers (all in the same game). There are 38 stops on the wheel so you have a 26.3% chance of one of your numbers hitting.

10/38 = 26.3%

If one of your numbers hit you will cash for $1800. But your bet was $500 so it's a net win of $1300. SO IF YOUR NUMBER HITS CASH OUT AND GO HOME.

If your number doesn't hit then go to Plan B and claim the $500 loss rebate. Bet $18 on Red, $18 on Black, and $1 each on the zeroes. That's a $38 bet which you are guaranteed to get back $36. You do this 13 times. At that point you will have bet $494 of the freeplay and got a $468 return. Doing it this way you take all of the variance out of the play. There is zero variance. You will have 6 odd dollars to playoff which you will probably get at least half back. So we are looking at a cost of $26 to $29. We'll call it $27.

So on this play you will have a 73.7% chance to lose $27....And you will have a 26.3% chance to win $1300.

I don't know about you, Alan, but I will take this gamble everyday of the year.

Someone should check to see if the M has electronic roulette and if it is allowed in the promotion.

[Alan Mendelson]

Why is this so hard to understand? A loss rebate is basically a free roll.

Let's say a $500 loss rebate. You play aggressively with your own money, trying to hit whatever Target you have chosen...something substantial, a substantial win.

If you fail to do so and lose the $500, you get the rebate in free play, which you then play through conservatively. Even if you play a 'bad' video poker game with say 98% payback, that $500 free play (rebate) is worth expected value of $490. You may not return exactly $490 of course. Maybe you get unlucky and return $450, maybe you hit a couple small jackpots and return $550. Doesn't matter, the expected value is $490.

If you are comfortable doing that then go ahead and do it. But it's exactly what the casino hopes you will do. Why? Because the casino wants that ten dollars.

And to increase that margin, the casino will give you that free play over two or more weeks. Wasn't it over twenty weeks with Revel? And then, some players won't be there to use all of the free play rebate.

This is the reality of what loss rebates are all about.

Frankly, why play aggressively in the first place? I've wondered why no one questioned this so I am. Why not play as you normally would with games with the lowest house edge, and just in case things go wrong, you have the loss rebate to fall back on? Why is there this urgency to play aggressively with your own money?

Now... if it were upfront free play, I can understand using the free play aggressively. In fact, that's what I used to do back in the good old days when I was getting up front $2500 of free play at Caesars. I would use that on triple double bonus or double double bonus, and then use my winnings from the free play to play my usual 8/5 Bonus.

[Rob.Singer]

There is nothing "free" about a loss rebate. If that were the case, then all those hot-shot/big-deal so-called AP's wouldn't have gotten thrown out of the Revel promo for going against the rules. Free? So let's ignore that and play this "free roll" according to OUR rules instead of the casino's.....Yeah right.

These AP's like to create the feeling of being able to "get their intermittent gambling satisfactions" by playing the hi-variance games going in. But just they forget--the casinos are going to make money overall from these misguided people with this promotion.They'll get you either coming or going.

And what about the foolish statement: "bbbut.....gee guys, it's worth $490!" Yes Mr. Einstein, those there 490 phantom bucks sure will come in handy at the grocery store, while that ten bucks you ACTUALLY lost on the promo has no meaning whatsoever.

No wonder these people are always arguing with hotel bills, utility companies, restaurants, etc. over three or four "over-charged" dollars.....

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=Alan Mendelson;50108]

If you are comfortable doing that then go ahead and do it. But it's exactly what the casino hopes you will do. Why? Because the casino wants that ten dollars.

They wanted Fab's ten dollars too. But they didn't get it.

[mickeycrimm]

And what about the foolish statement: "bbbut.....gee guys, it's worth $490!" Yes Mr. Einstein, those there 490 phantom bucks sure will come in handy at the grocery store, while that ten bucks you ACTUALLY lost on the promo has no meaning whatsoever.

Phantom bucks don't work at the grocery store but the $660 Fab won will come in real handy there.

[redietz]

Alan, I've been doing a little research into AP strategies for loss rebate promotions. Here's one that has led to some casino execs disqualifying ELECTRONIC ROULETTE from these promotions. Casino execs always learn these things from getting their asses kicked by AP's....then make adjustments to the promotion. On a $500 loss rebate:

Plan A: Bet $50 on 10 numbers (all in the same game). There are 38 stops on the wheel so you have a 26.3% chance of one of your numbers hitting.

10/38 = 26.3%

If one of your numbers hit you will cash for $1800. But your bet was $500 so it's a net win of $1300. SO IF YOUR NUMBER HITS CASH OUT AND GO HOME.

If your number doesn't hit then go to Plan B and claim the $500 loss rebate. Bet $18 on Red, $18 on Black, and $1 each on the zeroes. That's a $38 bet which you are guaranteed to get back $36. You do this 13 times. At that point you will have bet $494 of the freeplay and got a $468 return. Doing it this way you take all of the variance out of the play. There is zero variance. You will have 6 odd dollars to playoff which you will probably get at least half back. So we are looking at a cost of $26 to $29. We'll call it $27.

So on this play you will have a 73.7% chance to lose $27....And you will have a 26.3% chance to win $1300.

I don't know about you, Alan, but I will take this gamble everyday of the year.

Someone should check to see if the M has electronic roulette and if it is allowed in the promotion.

Excellent explanation. I don't see any possible criticism. A blind orangutan could do this.

[jbjb]

Why is this so hard to understand? A loss rebate is basically a free roll.

Let's say a $500 loss rebate. You play aggressively with your own money, trying to hit whatever Target you have chosen...something substantial, a substantial win.

If you fail to do so and lose the $500, you get the rebate in free play, which you then play through conservatively. Even if you play a 'bad' video poker game with say 98% payback, that $500 free play (rebate) is worth expected value of $490. You may not return exactly $490 of course. Maybe you get unlucky and return $450, maybe you hit a couple small jackpots and return $550. Doesn't matter, the expected value is $490.

So you go into the rebate with chance to win big (whatever your target is) vs a loss expectation of $10. Who wouldn't take that all day long, every day! Nobody is trying to cash in on the rebate. The rebate is simply the insurance policy. I just don't get why there is even a discussion about this?

And if your argument is that the player won't stop once he/she plays the free play through once, and will lose it all.....then you are exactly the type of schmuck the casino is looking for.

You guys are wasting your time arguing with these dense brick walls. Let them think this is a bad play. The less people doing them correctly, the better. There's a reason why these "schmucks" constantly get invited back with their precious "free room" offers and such.

As I've said before, these "schmucks" would rather promote poor play and lousy, high house edge sucker bets than learn how to actually beat these games and be a threat to the casinos. It's suckers like them that pay our bills so we need them to keep believing in their "AP is a myth" mentality. So I'm through here.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey Fab never lost his own money so he never touched the loss rebate. FAB QUIT WHEN AHEAD and imagine that!

Mrs Fab wasn't as lucky and I hope she can utilize the loss rebate in the future to win back what she lost and hopefully do better.

But right now I am overjoyed that there are no claims that loss rebates guarantee you a profit. We are now back to the reality that a loss rebate is played with risk.

[Alan Mendelson]

Jbjb you are a danger to the people who come here for rational information about casino play. I hope you are through. Your claims about having a full time career in casinos looking for dealers who flash cards are of little help to people who want help to play better in casinos.

Also telling people that it's okay to lose your own money because there is a good chance you'll get most of it back with the loss rebate is irresponsible.

[AxelWolf]

Mickey Fab never lost his own money so he never touched the loss rebate. FAB QUIT WHEN AHEAD and imagine that!

Mrs Fab wasn't as lucky and I hope she can utilize the loss rebate in the future to win back what she lost and hopefully do better.

But right now I am overjoyed that there are no claims that loss rebates guarantee you a profit. We are now back to the reality that a loss rebate is played with risk.

I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates. Unfortunately for you, or me however you want to look at it. You would never have the balls to up enough money for me to prove it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey Fab never lost his own money so he never touched the loss rebate. FAB QUIT WHEN AHEAD and imagine that!

Mrs Fab wasn't as lucky and I hope she can utilize the loss rebate in the future to win back what she lost and hopefully do better.

But right now I am overjoyed that there are no claims that loss rebates guarantee you a profit. We are now back to the reality that a loss rebate is played with risk.

I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates. Unfortunately for you, or me however you want to look at it. You would never have the balls to up enough money for me to prove it.

You're right. And my dick isn't as big as yours either. Now go your merry way.

[mickeycrimm]

FAB QUIT WHEN AHEAD and imagine that!.

Congratulations! You are finally starting to get it. At least a little of it anyway. This is exactly what I've been explaining to you for a week. If you get a lead on them you cash out the win and forego the loss rebate.

[Alan Mendelson]

FAB QUIT WHEN AHEAD and imagine that!.

Congratulations! You are finally starting to get it. At least a little of it anyway. This is exactly what I've been explaining to you for a week. If you get a lead on them you cash out the win and forego the loss rebate.

Sorry, but I've been saying this all along. The loss rebate is for losers, to give them a second chance. The loss rebate has nothing to do with winning. You either win or you hope the second chance with a loss rebate will be enough to bring you out of your hole.

But since we both agree, Mickey, along comes Axel who says "I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates." Oh boy.

[redietz]

Why is this so hard to understand? A loss rebate is basically a free roll.

Let's say a $500 loss rebate. You play aggressively with your own money, trying to hit whatever Target you have chosen...something substantial, a substantial win.

If you fail to do so and lose the $500, you get the rebate in free play, which you then play through conservatively. Even if you play a 'bad' video poker game with say 98% payback, that $500 free play (rebate) is worth expected value of $490. You may not return exactly $490 of course. Maybe you get unlucky and return $450, maybe you hit a couple small jackpots and return $550. Doesn't matter, the expected value is $490.

So you go into the rebate with chance to win big (whatever your target is) vs a loss expectation of $10. Who wouldn't take that all day long, every day! Nobody is trying to cash in on the rebate. The rebate is simply the insurance policy. I just don't get why there is even a discussion about this?

And if your argument is that the player won't stop once he/she plays the free play through once, and will lose it all.....then you are exactly the type of schmuck the casino is looking for.

You guys are wasting your time arguing with these dense brick walls. Let them think this is a bad play. The less people doing them correctly, the better. There's a reason why these "schmucks" constantly get invited back with their precious "free room" offers and such.

As I've said before, these "schmucks" would rather promote poor play and lousy, high house edge sucker bets than learn how to actually beat these games and be a threat to the casinos. It's suckers like them that pay our bills so we need them to keep believing in their "AP is a myth" mentality. So I'm through here.

JB, do me a favor and stick around for a few more days.

[mickeycrimm]

But since we both agree, Mickey, along comes Axel who says "I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates." Oh boy.

I can tell you this, Alan. I've known about axel for over 20 years. I even worked the same casino promotion he did at the Pioneer/Laughlin in 2002. I know him to be one sharp gambling SOB. He's easily one of the top five machine pros of all time.

With that said, if he says he can cash the freeplay for more than it's worth then I believe him. I don't know exactly how he does it. I have my own ideas about it. But I have no clue what is available on the casino floors of Las Vegas these days. I haven't been there in almost 10 years. My own idea would be to run as much of the freeplay off on advantage plays on accumulator type slot games that offer short term advantages. That is, if I could find enough plays. In the old days this would be games like Wild Cherry Pie, X-Factor, Double Diamond Mine, etc. Axel knows these games. But he probably knows something bettor to run the freeplay off today.

[blackhole]

I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates. Unfortunately for you, or me however you want to look at it. You would never have the balls to up enough money for me to prove it.

The alleged self-proclaimed AP’s posting in this thread make my AP argument perfectly clear.

Okay, good for you AP’s that could do the math, buy yourself a nice car, put some money in the bank, rent or own a nice place, don’t have to answer to anyone, plus the thrill it must be to get yourself off the street gutters. (Mickeys own words) Plus I’m sure you guys also get medical and other support from the government which would explain why most of you are left wing liberals. Remember, Obama care only works if you don’t.

Let’s also stay away from the IRS obligation nonsense, simply because the real facts would never be discussed honestly on a board, and just stop any nonsense about your righteous American spirit and commitment to paying your fair share to them. You guys are worried about a .5% percentage point separating a good play from a bad play, but have no problem paying 30% to 40% of your recorded winnings in taxes. Since you pros have no net loses year after year you got us stomped on how you overcome these tax burdens. Then again, I read on here where over 100K recorded winnings for a year can just vanish with the right connections. Do you see how deep the phony lying bullshit pit keeps getting deeper and deeper here?

How come every time anyone wants any type of even the simplest proof from any AP you have to put up and gamble away any chance of the information helping you? RS wants to be paid for just telling Alan where you could get a rebate of 150%. He would probably have to take a jet to another state, then pay RS off just to find out where it is. Do you fucking idiots even realize how pathetic and helpless you appear to the rest of us? There is no limit to how far any of you are willing to go just to try and convince the rest of us idiots how smart you are.

Axel’s stupid comment here, quote, “I can guarantee a profit using loss rebates. Unfortunately for you, or me however you want to look at it. You would never have the balls to up enough money for me to prove it.” Take a fn walk with your played-out put-up or shut-up nonsense. Just the fact you think anyone here would take your offer to put-up or shut-up just to watch you win playing a rebate shows how stupid you must think everyone else here must be. Is this your only way you have to convince us how gifted you must be? Maybe I’ll take another flight to L.V. just so you could show me how to win a few shekels on a rebate. Maybe that’s a good enough reason for you to meet up with me. Do you expect to win more on the rebate profit, or on our bet that you could do it? I’m starting to get convinced you’re a full-blown clown drifting around Las Vegas.

Like I asked in the past, why are you AP’s even here? No one is ever going to wager a nickel to witness your genius.

Axel had ten days to pick me up in Vegas and drive and show me around the town in his Maserati. We could have stopped at one of his high end homes for a nice barbeque and a swim in his indoor air conditioned pool.

Heck, he could have even faked an injury just to show me how well Medicaid works in the emergency rooms.

Take a walk you professional phony embarrassing fools.

[redietz]

Somebody got up on the wrong side of bed this morning. It's okay, blackhole, you're still loved and cherished. Try to get over it. Boy, sometimes I think you may not be ahead of the casinos lifetime.

[blackhole]

Somebody got up on the wrong side of bed this morning. It's okay, blackhole, you're still loved and cherished. Try to get over it. Boy, sometimes I think you may not be ahead of the casinos lifetime.

Another meaningless post from the forums own outer space pet alien.