Grochowski on "advantage video poker"

[bocce ball]

No sense getting gambling advice from a forum.

There's nothing wrong with getting advice from a forum, but you need a functioning BS detector. Anyone with basic arithmetic skills should be able to figure out which participants here are full of crap.

[Alan Mendelson]

Unfortunately too many people here lack basic math. So here's a basic lesson:

When you insert a $100 bill into a 7/5 Bonus Poker machine, and after a few hands the credit meter reads $120 and you hit the cash-out button, you've just locked up a profit of $20.

Find me a math professor who disagrees?

[coach belly]

There's nothing wrong with getting advice from a forum, but you need a functioning BS detector.

I don't understand the reluctance of these APs to prove that they are what they say they are.

Alan hits two $100K royals and right away he posts photos of the machines, plus his W2Gs.

Some of the stories I've read from the high-profile APs just don't ring true.

You have guys claiming to have played on the same bank of machines full time for months, yet they never met?

Groundhog supreme jbjb didn't even understand how freeplay worked less than a year ago. How can he be an AP?

There is no mathematical basis for claims of winning on bets of opinion, and free contests don't count.

I offered anybody a sure thing to take my money heads-up bets, and there are no takers.

Then NKOTB kewlj is asked to prove that he has won what he says he has won, and he wants to hire a lawyer.

That is all some AP BS right there.

If you don't care whether or not anybody believes you, then why bother claiming that you are a winner?

[jbjb]

For the record, I don't care if anyone wins or loses. It doesn't affect me. I say prove that your "SYSTEM", "METHOD" or whatever fancy name you give it beats negative EV games long term. That means it'll work for infinity. Monetary wins or losses are NOT proof. Everything that guys like KJ, Axel, me, etc., do can be proven to work and anyone here can do the same. They're just to lazy to do them which is fine.

[coach belly]

For the record, I don't care if anyone wins or loses.

That is an outright lie.

That means it'll work for infinity.

Infinity does not exist.

Monetary wins or losses are NOT proof.

What else matters but monetary wins or losses?

This ?...."It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."

[redietz]

If all that matters is monetary wins and losses, then we should be begging every Mega-Millions winner to unveil his or her system, because by golly they must be onto something and because it's not whether you had a good bet, it's whether you win or lose.

[Alan Mendelson]

redietz your philosophy is starting to irritate.

jbjb... I do recall when you didn't understand the basics of "advantage play" when it came to casino comps, then all of a sudden you are passing judgment on everyone else here.

frankly, if your strong suit is weak dealers who flash cards, you have a very limited opportunity to keep your advantage over the casinos and when you play.

So far not one of the APs here has provided any information or help to others to help them win. Nor have they provided any proof of their own wins. And all are quick to ask for big money wagers if ever challenged. You know who else does that? Rob Singer.

I rest my case.

[kewlJ]

So far not one of the APs here has provided any information or help to others to help them win. Nor have they provided any proof of their own wins.

I disagree with your first sentence. I think AP's are sharing as much as can be expected. Are you expecting someone to lay it out for you? Do this and that and that and it's a guaranteed winner. That is not the way it works.

Your second sentence is exactly why there aren't more AP's participating here. Prove this...prove that...PROVE THIS. WTF, Alan? Explain how it is in any AP's interest to prove anything?

None of the AP's here are here selling anything, that I can see. If that were the case, I can see asking them to prove their claims. In the absence of that, it goes back to what I have said so many times, including on this site. You and everyone else is free to believe what you want. Don't believe. Believe the earth is flat. Makes no difference to me. Frankly, for people that don't want to believe, you among that group, there is no proof that would satisfy them anyway.

[bocce ball]

Frankly, for people that don't want to believe, you among that group, there is no proof that would satisfy them anyway.

Pretty much, yup.

Some of the stories I've read from the high-profile APs just don't ring true.

That would indeed be a red flag, but my impression of the stories is that the details generally fit together quite nicely.

If you don't care whether or not anybody believes you, then why bother claiming that you are a winner?

I think claiming to be a winner is usually incidental. The value of an advantage play (AP) can be evaluated mathematically, so the discussions (unless hijacked) tend to involve math. The value of a betting system (BS) "transcends" conventional math, so those discussions tend to involve actual results.

[redietz]

I can't really control who I irritate, so I try to not care.

And anybody who can tell me what my philosophy is, please PM me. I didn't know I had one.

[Alan Mendelson]

Frankly, I don't understand why the APs bother to post here? They already know everything. They are already winners. And they are not interested in finding out about the expert advice Dan gives about Total Rewards.

I think the APs would be better off just winning money and impressing the other APs on WOV.

[kewlJ]

Frankly, I don't understand why the APs bother to post here? They already know everything. They are already winners.

That is a pretty shitty attitude. Very welcoming.

[Alan Mendelson]

One of the reasons I gave up this forum is because there has been nothing rewarding that has come from it. We have fighting and more fighting, and no one is sharing information or help for others with the exception of Dan and a few others who have made some helpful contributions. The rest? Come on -- would you carry on this way if I invited all of you over for cocktails and dinner? Of course you wouldn't.

So what's the point of even having this forum.

We have the APs who tell everyone who isn't an AP that you are doing it all wrong but dare not ask them for advice about what to do right.

We have the non-APs who enjoy doing what they are doing but get criticized for it even if they happen to win.

We have Rob Singer which is a situation all by itself.

I remember dozens of members who no longer post here and they left saying the same things: there is a lack of useful information and a glut of negativity.

When I started this forum years ago the goal was to provide a place for sharing and helping, not for criticizing. But I made a mistake. I allowed "free speech" because I didn't want this forum to be run like the Wizard's. But the free speech got out of control and I couldn't stop the tailspin. That's why I turned it over to Dan.

Have we all noticed that its the same ten people who do all the posting?

Have you also noticed we lost most of the ladies who used to contribute and ask questions here?

All I can say is you guys won. I hope you and Dan are happy.

[mickeycrimm]

One of the reasons I gave up this forum is because there has been nothing rewarding that has come from it. We have fighting and more fighting, and no one is sharing information or help for others with the exception of Dan and a few others who have made some helpful contributions. The rest? Come on -- would you carry on this way if I invited all of you over for cocktails and dinner? Of course you wouldn't.

So what's the point of even having this forum.

We have the APs who tell everyone who isn't an AP that you are doing it all wrong but dare not ask them for advice about what to do right.

We have the non-APs who enjoy doing what they are doing but get criticized for it even if they happen to win.

We have Rob Singer which is a situation all by itself.

I remember dozens of members who no longer post here and they left saying the same things: there is a lack of useful information and a glut of negativity.

When I started this forum years ago the goal was to provide a place for sharing and helping, not for criticizing. But I made a mistake. I allowed "free speech" because I didn't want this forum to be run like the Wizard's. But the free speech got out of control and I couldn't stop the tailspin. That's why I turned it over to Dan.

Have we all noticed that its the same ten people who do all the posting?

Have you also noticed we lost most of the ladies who used to contribute and ask questions here?

All I can say is you guys won. I hope you and Dan are happy.

You have been given more information by AP's here than the law allows. You choose to ignore it and say they aren't making any contributions here. Just recently, explaining the dice math to you was helpful contribution. You belittled it. Explaining loss rebate strategy was very helpful contribution. What did you do with it? You belittled it. Called it all wrong. The problem here is not a lack of AP's explaining all these concepts to you. The problem is your faulty math logic does not allow you to believe any of it and so you ridicule it.

So why should any AP continue to explain all these concepts to you when you are just going to ridicule it?

[Alan Mendelson]

The dice math? Where you guys rotate a die to show different faces in order to answer the two dice in a cup problem your way?

Sorry. It was wrong. You can't change how a die lands.

[mickeycrimm]

The dice math? Where you guys rotate a die to show different faces in order to answer the two dice in a cup problem your way? Sorry. It was wrong. You can't change how a die lands.

You did the same thing in your video.

[RS__]

Alan, you can't have it both ways. Here you're asking why do APs bother posting here (rhetorically presumably)....yet also want people to make valuable contributions to this forum, as far as I can tell. The information and things we're saying IS RIGHT....the problem is you and others can't accept it.

We're not here to prove a damn thing. It's you & co who can't accept (or understand?) math and ask us to prove what we say is true.

As far as negativity, much of it comes from Rob Stringer. Had you left Rob banned, he likely wouldn't still be posting here, and this forum would be a better place without him.


Unfortunately, I don't think anything here is ever going to change. It's a shame there because are some actual bright people here who don't post on other forums AFAIK (Mickey & KJ [sort of], redeitz, and some others I can't think of off hand).....and much of this forum is ruined because of the constant BS Rob/Alan/coach/blackasshole spew.

[Alan Mendelson]

The dice math? Where you guys rotate a die to show different faces in order to answer the two dice in a cup problem your way? Sorry. It was wrong. You can't change how a die lands.

You did the same thing in your video.

An absolute lie. I did not.

What I did show is that it didn't matter which of the two dice was showing a 2. But I did not alter the face of a die to answer the question.

Here's my video:

[Alan Mendelson]

We're not here to prove a damn thing. It's you & co who can't accept (or understand?) math and ask us to prove what we say is true.

For example, the two dice problem? You give us the math but we ask you to prove it using two dice and you refuse to do it. When the wizard tries to prove it with two dice he has to show more than one face on a die which in reality (and certainly at any craps table in Vegas) you cannot do.

So you see, you guys can spout off your math all you want to, but it has to be the correct math.

Now getting back to our biggest problem at hand: Can Coach show a profit on a 98% game. The "math" says he won't. I agree, the math says he won't. But maybe if he plays DIFFERENTLY he will beat the expected value.

I don't know if there is a math formula for playing differently besides what Rob has in his special plays. But if you really want to live by the math, go ahead and bet against him.

Me? I won't. Because I wouldn't bet against a 2% margin.

[RS__]

We're not here to prove a damn thing. It's you & co who can't accept (or understand?) math and ask us to prove what we say is true.

For example, the two dice problem? You give us the math but we ask you to prove it using two dice and you refuse to do it. When the wizard tries to prove it with two dice he has to show more than one face on a die which in reality (and certainly at any craps table in Vegas) you cannot do.

So you see, you guys can spout off your math all you want to, but it has to be the correct math.

It is the correct math. I believe Wizard made a video where he showed all combinations where at least why die is a 2.

I could make a video where I roll two dice many times and record each time at least one of them is a 2, then write if the other die is or is not a 2. But that would be like me flipping a coin a bunch of times and showing on average you'll see 1/2 heads and 1/2 tails. Or I can make a video of two apples in a basket, me adding 3 more apples to the basket, just to show 2+3=5.

Now getting back to our biggest problem at hand: Can Coach show a profit on a 98% game. The "math" says he won't. I agree, the math says he won't. But maybe if he plays DIFFERENTLY he will beat the expected value.

I don't know if there is a math formula for playing differently besides what Rob has in his special plays. But if you really want to live by the math, go ahead and bet against him.

Me? I won't. Because I wouldn't bet against a 2% margin.

The math doesn't say he won't (or can't) win on a 98% game for some session, it says he is not expected to win.