Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Originally Posted by bocce ball View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
The interviewer asked me if I did horses. I said something like, "Too hard. I'd sooner bet on three-legged giraffe races."
Is that because of the inherent difficulty of handicapping, or because the vig is unbeatable? The latest Nevada gaming revenue report shows a 15.5% win for race books, and only 5.4% for sports (12 months ended August 31st, statewide).

http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdoc...cumentid=12385

As for your abilities, you've already given ironclad examples of arb opportunities. But not everyone relies on evidence when evaluating a claim.
Don't get me wrong. There are people who have gone through extended periods being able to win at horses (regnis is one). But these people have intimate knowledge of tracks, the tendencies of owners and trainers, why certain jockeys take what mounts, the "non-verbals" of horses in the paddock, and so on. Anyone trying to win at horses without the "in-family" long-term knowledge base is just a civilian, like me.

Plus, the idea of trying to overcome the 15-20% vig gives me the queasy shivers. I wouldn't even know how to mentally deal with that kind of disadvantage.

Quick aside: 30 years ago, back in the good old days, comps for betting sports and races were the same. Back then, it was great. They were lumped together, and you could get real sports comps. Now it's more like a 5-to-1 ratio -- you get five times (at least) in comps for race betting as for sports. Race comps have stayed pretty much the same as 30 years ago; sports comps have been dramatically reduced.
I have always said that horses are a full time job. You have to put in the time and my 50 years doing it does help (I started when I was 12). The 20% (approximately) hold is tough. But the key in horses is that you are not playing against the house. You are playing against the other bettors who are mostly uninformed (stupid). That makes up for the hold.

I don't know how much time you put in on a weekly basis Redietz, but I am sure it is quite a bit, even if just shopping the lines. As discussed somewhere on this forum, I worked for and was the top handicapper for a football tip sheet many years ago. I came to a mutual agreement to leave when I was ordered to give out both sides of games. I was doing pretty well at the time with a few plays per week in pro and college football but my "employer" was not someone you argued with. Lately I have considered getting back into sports but realize the time it would take to become knowledgeable again makes it impossible. Despite a few mind bet wins I don't want to delude myself that I have the ability today. But if horses become too much of an effort maybe.

I don't know what the comps are now for sports betting, but the comps for horses are negligible. I usually meet with the race book director and negotiate my rate. Otherwise it is almost not worth even using your card.

P.S.

Never considered myself an AP either. I don't consider knowledge or brains to constitute one being an AP. Someone that beats the system in some way like Mickey vulturing to me is an AP.