Simple question yes or no. Did Alan really see 18 yos in a row?
Simple question yes or no. Did Alan really see 18 yos in a row?
The question is not as simple as it seems.
It may well be that he has a vestigial memory of such an event, but only a complete idiot would think it actually happened.
I hypothesized, and Alan took great offense at it, that he may have had some form of "health" situation which affected his ability to observe, process and retain glimpses of reality.
Hello, false memory.
He folded up his tent and fled WoV after receiving heaps of well-deserved scorn and criticism for making such a patently absurd proclamation.
The guy's no spring chicken, he's walking around with somebody else's kidney and has to be on heavy meds.
Then again, he could just be a lying attention whore.
What, Me Worry?
NO...it is as simple as it seems!Originally Posted by MisterV
I too think there may be some circumstances such as selective memory, mind playing tricks and/or a bit of unintentional exaggeration at a very unusual event. BUT, when Alan doubles down, insisting these things are not the case, and doubles down thousands of times, insisting he saw what he claims, then it DOES become as simple as a yes no poll question....did Alan see what he claims or not?
Can't say anything with certainty. Not even that there is no God. Ask any statistics prof.
Perhaps, it happened, and Alan is still out-to-lunch.
All I can say is, I wish I bet a single dollar on the yo and parlayed to the max.
Really? Do you think you would get paid for that?Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Just because something is highly unlikely does not prove it never happened. Last night the Cubs had consecutive hitters get on base with a passed ball, intentional walk, catchers interference and HBP. That has never happened in 2.7 million half innings before and only occurred in a whole game 5 times:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/c...s-to-know/amp/
Also what is in it for Alan to lie?
FAB
He was trying to prove a point and exaggerated (I think he just made up a random number that sounded high). He had no clue that it was next to impossible. He couldn't back down at that point or evrything he ever said would be called into question.Originally Posted by FABismonte
Highly unlikely? Its so unlikely even god is laughing.
Even if he thinks he is lying, there is a lot more to it.
Here's a fun game...what's more likely?!
My first and only two hands on VP I get dealt AKQJT of hearts, in order?
Or throwing 18 yos in a row, starting on my first toss of the dice?
The former is 404,000 times more likely than the latter.
Feynman said that clarity (related to the truth) is better than precision.Originally Posted by RS__
Another thing that everyone seems to have missed over the years about this claim is that we are not talking about the outright odds. Alan didn't sit down to see this event at a given time and place, and then only once in his life. In this sense, we have to look at its chance over the course of casino history. If it happened to him, then we happen to be the associated ones to pick it apart. The analogy to our universe being one of so many that it happens to sustain such intelligent life in our universe (out of many we aren't in to not see) instead of it in a mix with a creation element.
Seeing a particular licence plate on any given day is meaningless (to most persons), though each plate is very unlikely to occur, as a straightforward probability, but not when we think of a particular one just before we see it.
Of course, Alan still took/takes it too far.
Clarity of mind. That which isn't found on gambling forums, or in gambling books.
Sigh.
Last edited by OneHitWonder; 10-14-2017 at 06:48 AM.
Currently, the votes are 7 yes, 1 no. I believe the yos have it!
The sad thing is that Alan still maintains to this day that he actually saw this patently impossible event unfold before his eyes.
Sustained belief in the impossible = crazy town.
What, Me Worry?
Even the guys who believe in Bigfoot and aliens are voting NO.Originally Posted by jbjb
Come on FAB, your posts are usually great, but your nose is completely brown covered, if you believe this nonsense.Originally Posted by FABismonte
By the way that Cubs game was insane, once in a lifetime to be sure, but Alan's claim is WAYYYYY more unlikely then the CUBS/NATS freak show.
I guess Alan sees multiples at Caesars craps tables.
He talked about one "cursed" craps table there that showed multiple nines.
Here's a pic of yet another "multiple" event for him at a Casesars crap table:
Still and all, that pic rocks: kudos to ya, guy.
What, Me Worry?
I don't understand the point here, if something isn't mathematically impossible, then it's possible, even if the odds are incredibly long. Some people hit a lottery at 70 million or so to one buying $10 worth of tickets.
If the last three years playing craps, I've seen shooters throw back-to-back six-point fire bets. In this case, I was at the next table and didn't profit from it. Another time, I saw one shooter hit 21 consecutive points, making the six-point fire bet, and probably make only about $500 on his entire roll. The shooter had had a lot to drink and was just throwing blind, but everyone else at the table cleaned up. Again, I was at the next table, but I asked the dealers later and they said security reviewed the tape to make sure nothing was weird, and they counted his points. In both these cases, I just picked the wrong table.
Last year, during a five-day stay, I hit the All/Tall/Small six times during the week. One time, the same shooter threw it back-to-back on the same roll. The first time, I was the only one on it. The second time, everyone was on it and the dealers had about $10 on it. A few days later, I threw one myself. Over the summer for five days, I didn't hit a single all, and only the occasional small and tall.
The things I saw extremely unlikely, yet I was there to see them happen. So I would say anything is possible, even 18 yo's in a row.
And it's generally "big news" even when somthing much less rare happens. According to Alan, this was like nothing had really happened. I find it mindboggling that such a "good reporter" who has an interest in gambling just carried on like it was nothing(even he had to know it was significantly rare). It would seem as if he would have brought it up to management(hey, make sure you save that video) and even reported it on a forum or made an article about it ASAP.Originally Posted by BYLee291
It's a million times more likely that he is making it up, exaggerated, dreamed it happened, miscounted by a large factor, was on something, had a medical condition, or there's some other good explanation.
It just so happened that his story fit right into the point he was trying to make when he claimed it happened.
Let's not forget, we cant find any witnesses, the video is gone, NO ONE BET IT AFTER 7, 8, 9,10, 11, 12,13,14,15,16, 17 rolls. The stickman nonchalantly checked the dice once with his stick.
I do NOT know anything about craps, and I never play it.
But, it seems to me, if Alan did indeed witness it, that the logical Occam's Razor conclusion (to him) should be that a bad pair of dice had been inserted into the game, probably accidentally by management. That is certainly more likely than that he saw 18 in a row sans a rigged pair of dice in the game.
So the question would be, why would Alan go with the idea that he saw 18 in a row without rigged dice as opposed to with rigged dice.
If it were me, I would assume the dice were rigged. I would not assume I had seen something mathematically impossible. It would be very, very difficult to knock me off the rigged dice explanation.
So, bottom line, why is the "accidental insertion of rigged dice" not considered a more likely explanation than "mathematical miracle?"
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