Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[regnis]

So is Redietz an AP? I would say no, because his "edge" is knowledge and experience. Now if he had a direct line to the trainer on certain teams that he exploits (and maybe he does--that I don't know), maybe then he would be an AP. Just like the fact that I have played the horses for 50 years, read everything that is written, have a vast knowledge of breeding, know trainer and owner angles does not, to me, make me an AP. I just work harder at it and put the time in. There is still no sure thing that I can exploit like a favorable deck or the games that Mickey can vulture. Although I used to call the groundskeeper at one racetrack every morning to discuss what they had done to the track that morning in terms of cushion, scraping, addition of dirt, etc. Maybe that was an AP play.

[Alan Mendelson]

I used to call the groundskeeper at one racetrack every morning to discuss what they had done to the track that morning in terms of cushion, scraping, addition of dirt, etc. Maybe that was an AP play.

Absolutely that was an AP play. Just as knowing table conditions at craps, and jbjb knowing which dealers flash cards.

[redietz]

So is Redietz an AP? I would say no, because his "edge" is knowledge and experience. Now if he had a direct line to the trainer on certain teams that he exploits (and maybe he does--that I don't know), maybe then he would be an AP. Just like the fact that I have played the horses for 50 years, read everything that is written, have a vast knowledge of breeding, know trainer and owner angles does not, to me, make me an AP. I just work harder at it and put the time in. There is still no sure thing that I can exploit like a favorable deck or the games that Mickey can vulture. Although I used to call the groundskeeper at one racetrack every morning to discuss what they had done to the track that morning in terms of cushion, scraping, addition of dirt, etc. Maybe that was an AP play.

That seems like a reasonable way to look at it. Occasionally something comes my way, but it's not some ongoing crutch. For example, about 25 years ago, someone I trust told me that the Kentucky hoops team doctor had made a large wager on the team they were playing against early in the season. It was an easy W. But those are once-a-season situations, at best.

It is interesting that looking at things this way, what some people consider an edge, I'd call a crutch.

[RS__]

A better example would be my dad. He gambles recreationally and isn't an AP. I found a decent promotion one time and we both played it. So he played a game with an advantage, but, he isn't an AP.

If he made the AP play why isn't he an AP? Does he need the secret handshake and decoder ring?

Can you not read? It seems you want to argue just for the sake of arguing.

I've played soccer before, but I'm not a soccer player.

[Alan Mendelson]

A better example would be my dad. He gambles recreationally and isn't an AP. I found a decent promotion one time and we both played it. So he played a game with an advantage, but, he isn't an AP.

If he made the AP play why isn't he an AP? Does he need the secret handshake and decoder ring?

Can you not read? It seems you want to argue just for the sake of arguing.

I've played soccer before, but I'm not a soccer player.

Why aren't you a soccer player if you played soccer? You may not be a professional soccer player because you haven't been hired by a professional team. But you are still a soccer player, aren't you?

I'm a tennis player even though I don't play professionally.

Now, back to the AP gambler. Isn't an AP gambler one who plays with an advantage? Is there a secret handshake or decoder ring that separates one AP gambler from another?

[mickeycrimm]

Sportsbettors and horsebettors that show a consistent profit over the years are AP's. Through knowledge and experience they have an advantage. And that advantage can be quantified mathematically too. I remember reading in Michael Konik's book, The Smart Money, that half a point in the NFL can be as much as a 7.5% advantage.

Incidentally, Konik's book was published in 2006 and I quickly bought it. The book was about the world's biggest professional sport bettor, which Konik called Big Daddy. Konik wouldn't reveal who Big Daddy actually was and had practically everyone in gambling trying to figure out who he was. I'm sure some people did know who he was.

In 2011 I happened to be watching 60 Minutes and they did a piece on a big time sportbettor named Billy Walters. I quickly put two and two together. Billy Walters was Big Daddy. I knew Bob Dancer had an upcoming interview with Michael Konik on Gambling With An Edge. I emailed Bob and told him what I thought. Dancer watched the 60 Minutes piece on youtube and agreed with me that Walters was Big Daddy. On the show he asked Konik if Billy Walters was Big Daddy. Konik's response was "I can neither confirm nor deny he is." But the cat was out of the bag. We all knew Walters was Big Daddy.

[kewlJ]

This is not complicated. Let's not make it more complicated than it really is. In general terms an Advantage Player is a player that plays with an advantage. Is someone who once in a blue moon to occasionally plays with an advantage, but most of the time does not, an advantage player? No. I remember Dan Lubin posting how one day he was playing blackjack and found himself "counting". And Dan was certainly no AP, and on the contrary, a huge opponent of AP's.

Do you have to play with an advantage every time you play? No again. I would say anyone who plays, or tries to play with an advantage the majority of time that they play, is an AP. Now, professional AP's, those that make a living or a large amount of our income from whatever sort of AP play we engage in, yes, most of us ONLY AP. I never sit down and play blackjack without trying to play with an advantage. With blackjack, a card counter may not always play with an advantage. If the count never goes positive, his play for that session will very likely have been -EV. But he attempted to play with an advantage and over the long run....has.

Sports betting is an interesting case. I am an AP.....a blackjack, card counter... lowest on the AP chain according to AP extrordinaire James Grosjean, and while I engage in sports betting for some fun, my sports betting activity is NOT at an advantage (and my results prove that ). But people like redietz (I suspect there are not many of them) that are able to figure out an advantage, though hard work and knowledge DO play with an advantage at sports betting. I have no idea how they do so. But their results over an extended period of time, prove that they do. So despite that redietz continues to reject the AP label....he is an AP! I mean he can call himself (or not call himself) whatever he likes, but he plays with and advantage and wins consistently, over an extended period of time. That's an AP folks. THAT is the definition.

Sports betting is just one form of AP that I haven't a clue about. I don't understand most of what Mickey and machine players do. I don't understand most of what players like Grosjean and Munchkin do. But just because I don't have that knowledge or understand those techniques, doesn't mean squat. They play with an advantage, win consistently over an extended period of time...THAT is Advantage Play(er).

[redietz]

Sportsbettors and horsebettors that show a consistent profit over the years are AP's. Through knowledge and experience they have an advantage. And that advantage can be quantified mathematically too. I remember reading in Michael Konik's book, The Smart Money, that half a point in the NFL can be as much as a 7.5% advantage.

Incidentally, Konik's book was published in 2006 and I quickly bought it. The book was about the world's biggest professional sport bettor, which Konik called Big Daddy. Konik wouldn't reveal who Big Daddy actually was and had practically everyone in gambling trying to figure out who he was. I'm sure some people did know who he was.

In 2011 I happened to be watching 60 Minutes and they did a piece on a big time sportbettor named Billy Walters. I quickly put two and two together. Billy Walters was Big Daddy. I knew Bob Dancer had an upcoming interview with Michael Konik on Gambling With An Edge. I emailed Bob and told him what I thought. Dancer watched the 60 Minutes piece on youtube and agreed with me that Walters was Big Daddy. On the show he asked Konik if Billy Walters was Big Daddy. Konik's response was "I can neither confirm nor deny he is." But the cat was out of the bag. We all knew Walters was Big Daddy.

I mentioned this before in my go round with belly and Singer, but I worked for Billy Walters for a short stretch about 15 years ago. I got some sense of what he was about, but I'll save most of those observations for when I get my own site up and running. Let me just be clear, though, "Big Daddy" may have been part of the handicapping process when the "Computer Group" began, but for the years afterward he was primarily the money and the organizer and the rules maker, not the handicapper per se.

There is a truly terrible move called "The Runner," which has John Goodman in the Billy Walters role. I have a certain fondness for the movie, as it has some other big name actors, and it does give a sense of the tension and risk involved working for "Big Daddy."

One other note: Billy Walters was probably the biggest sports bettor in Las Vegas. Whether he was the biggest sports bettor in the United States is debatable. And he certainly isn't/wasn't the biggest sports bettor in the world. Part of his self presentation, however, was presenting as the biggest and brightest, all with the hint of a Kentucky/Tennessee accent.

[MisterV]

Absolutely that was an AP play. Just as knowing table conditions at craps, and jbjb knowing which dealers flash cards.

Huh?

"Table conditions?"

What, like if it's a "cursed" table at Caesars that yields an inordinate amount of nines?

How exactly would "knowing the table conditions at craps" yield any form of AP?

[regnis]

V-that goes back to dice control which you do not believe in. And that is fine. But for those that do believe, table conditions are of the utmost importance. Last time I was at Caesars, there was only one table left that was not too bouncy. Some other casinos have none. In my local area, there is only one casino that has tables that are usable. So whether intentionally or not, the casinos have pretty much stopped dice control, at least the casinos that I used to frequent. I have no knowledge of other casinos around the country other than Caesars AC which was ok last time I was there. That was several years ago, however.

[MisterV]

Ah, so "table conditions" refers to the bounciness of the layout?

DI's want a fairly "dead" surface, I suppose.

Are there any other factors which affect "table conditions" viz. AP?

[Alan Mendelson]

Length of the table also counts in table conditions as does the attitude of the casino crew. If they won't let you set the dice DI becomes impossible.

Mickey mentioned profits as being a qualification for AP status. But what happens when an AP has a losing streak? Does he lose his AP status. I'm not picking on kewlj but didn't he mention he had a six month period of losses while card counting?

I'm not dense. I'm trying to determine a definition of AP. Frankly I don't think profit is essential for being an AP. I think playing with an advantage is what an AP is all about but even with an advantage you are still gambling and hence you can lose.

[OneHitWonder]

If they won't let you set the dice DI becomes impossible.

With any perceivable influence or outright control, comes the notion of adapting to different conditions. Same as with any actual edge.

But what happens when an AP has a losing streak? Does he lose his AP status.

Then, while winning, a SP is an AP. So, no.

... but even with an advantage you are still gambling and hence you can lose.

Even winning in a casino is a form of losing. If you waste your life at it. Survival without value.

[jbjb]

I'm trying to determine a definition of AP. Frankly I don't think profit is essential for being an AP. I think playing with an advantage is what an AP is all about but even with an advantage you are still gambling and hence you can lose.

That's all there is to it.

You don't have to be a full time AP to partake in some advantage plays.

[OneHitWonder]

I'm trying to determine a definition of AP. Frankly I don't think profit is essential for being an AP. I think playing with an advantage is what an AP is all about but even with an advantage you are still gambling and hence you can lose.

That's all there is to it.

You don't have to be a full time AP to partake in some advantage plays.

I think that AP is this. A confusing relpy to a confusing question. There is no real advantage if it locked up in a mystery in an enigma around a riddle. Something like that. Maybe V can straighten it out. Lol.

P.S. At least no one is trying to back all of this up with an Actuarial Science degree. Ha.

[jbjb]

I'm trying to determine a definition of AP. Frankly I don't think profit is essential for being an AP. I think playing with an advantage is what an AP is all about but even with an advantage you are still gambling and hence you can lose.

That's all there is to it.

You don't have to be a full time AP to partake in some advantage plays.

I think that AP is this. A confusing relpy to a confusing question. There is no real advantage if it locked up in a mystery in an enigma around a riddle. Something like that. Maybe V can straighten it out. Lol.

P.S. At least no one is trying to back all of this up with an Actuarial Science degree. Ha.

Don't you have a baccarat or roulette table to go and lose your money on?

[MisterV]

Mickey mentioned profits as being a qualification for AP status. But what happens when an AP has a losing streak? Does he lose his AP status.

No.

Advantage play simply means that through your chosen method of play you have altered the usual probabilities such that you are now more likely to win than lose; otherwise the opposite applies.

Nobody wins all the time, not even the casino.

It's a "long run" situation, alas, which concept you deny has much applicability to the reality of gambling.

[Alan Mendelson]

More likely to win? I've read so many times about so called APs who said their advantage came from cash back and drawing tickets and had nothing to do with winning. As an example: Dancer. He plays negative expectation video poker for a chance at winning a car thru drawing tickets.

[jbjb]

It's basically getting paid better than the overall odds dictate.

If I shuffled a deck of cards and asked you to draw the ace of hearts and paid you 52 to 1, you'd have an advantage even though you'll lose 51 out of 52 times.

[MisterV]

More likely to win? I've read so many times about so called APs who said their advantage came from cash back and drawing tickets and had nothing to do with winning. As an example: Dancer. He plays negative expectation video poker for a chance at winning a car thru drawing tickets.

True, but it is correct to include the value of the comps as "winnings."

What you put in vs. what you get back.