Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[OneHitWonder]

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

[redietz]

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

OneHit, my site(s) will not be in pursuit of coin of the realm. No advertisers (unless it's The Skeptic magazine or something like that). No forum. Just content. I'm too old and too responsible to try to recruit advertisers, and forums rarely offer anything of significant value. Have we learned nothing? I don't care about traffic. I don't care, and actually prefer, if a dozen people read the stuff. I don't care about losing (small amounts of) money. I consider it a publishing venture.

[mickeycrimm]

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

[mickeycrimm]

Unfortunately for you very wise gamblers who believe you have an edge and bet accordingly, you are following the Greater Fool Theory of economics... just as investors in rare coins, stamps, art and even bitcoin follow the Greater Fool Theory.

You are taking your real dollars and putting them on a table or into a slot figuring you will profit. While at the same time someone (a casino) is offering that opportunity to you because it thinks you will lose. The Greater Fool takes the bet.

It is the same, for example, with art. There is a buyer who will give up his real dollars for a chance at,a profit while the seller is looking for a Greater Fool to relieve him of his risk.

Not all fools lose, however. Some profit in numismatics or art or philately.

But unlike the investor in art, coins and stamps, the gambler is the last rung on the ladder and there is no other fool to relieve him of his burden UNLESS he sells shares in his action mucH like some poker players do.

Alan, what is your take on the Smarter Gambler Theory?

[redietz]

It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

I won't be selling anything, mickey. Not my schtick.

What you wrote, though, reminds me of the "paranormal" section of bookstores. Lots of books claiming all kinds of strange and non-scientific things, and about 1 in 20 debunking them. Not much of a market for being rational. Not a popular thing to be.

[quahaug]

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

I won't be selling anything, mickey. Not my schtick.

What you wrote, though, reminds me of the "paranormal" section of bookstores. Lots of books claiming all kinds of strange and non-scientific things, and about 1 in 20 debunking them. Not much of a market for being rational. Not a popular thing to be.

I lost Shermer when he jumped on the global warming bandwagon. It's always about the money.

[Alan Mendelson]

It appears that some of you took offense when I said there was a link between AP play and the Greater Fool Theory. Do not be offended if you are included in those covered by the Greater Fool Theory. Anyone who buys a home, buys art or collectibles is also lumped in there. The title "Greater Fool Theory" is not meant to insult anyone -- it's just an understanding of the mindset of consumers.

I collect coins and art, and I bought coins and art from people who wanted to sell and I bought with the idea that I would resell it at a profit someday.

[jbjb]

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

[OneHitWonder]

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

[kewlJ]

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes.

[RS__]

It appears that some of you took offense when I said there was a link between AP play and the Greater Fool Theory. Do not be offended if you are included in those covered by the Greater Fool Theory. Anyone who buys a home, buys art or collectibles is also lumped in there. The title "Greater Fool Theory" is not meant to insult anyone -- it's just an understanding of the mindset of consumers.

I collect coins and art, and I bought coins and art from people who wanted to sell and I bought with the idea that I would resell it at a profit someday.

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs. People collect houses, coins, paintings, even beanie babies with the expectation to sell it for a profit down the road. I don't see how this is similar to what APs do, at all.

[kewlJ]

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

[OneHitWonder]

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

I think this has to do with the difference between knowing and understanding. Facts are what we know (for sure); whereas, theory is what we understand (in an ever-partial sense).

Here's an example blurb from the internet, "Gravity is a fact. But we don't know everything about gravity and how it works, so we have gravitational theory to explain the data we have collected over time. We are always finding out new things about gravity, and previous notions about it can be discarded or solidified. For example, there was the recent confirmations of gravitational waves. Before this, we didn't have any evidence as to whether gravity was a wave or particle or both (calculations are usually based on a wave-particle duality). We can confirm the existence of waves, and therefore validate calculations or better address specific phenomena. However, we're still not sure that gravity exists as a particle. This is all part of the theory. But we know that gravity exists."

[Alan Mendelson]

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

There are plenty of facts and plenty of research that goes into the social sciences. Can you prove hole carding? Can you prove that a dealer will flash cards on his next shift?

[jbjb]

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

[mickeycrimm]

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

[MisterV]

[QUOTE=kewlJ;55712Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes. [/QUOTE]

Anti-semitic, are you?

[Alan Mendelson]

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

Casinos don't use phantom bucks. Casinos go by the math of the game.

Players, unfortunately, use more than just the math of the game. In some cases they add certain values to their play from: card counting, for example, or hole carding, or adding the value of hotel rooms, and show tickets, and yes, even the value of coffee mugs.

APs created their own "math" that goes beyond the simple math of the game and that is their "greater fool moment."

Now don't be alarmed. We all do this. When I invest in Morgan Silver dollars in mint state condition that are certified by PCGS I also add a certain value to the coins that I buy because they might have rainbow toning or might appear to be "under graded." Or, I might assign a higher value to coins from the Carson City mint which I hope will allow me to sell them at a bigger profit.

Now jbjb the question isn't about "all of those phantom bucks casinos are raking in day after day" which is what you wrote. The question is how are you sure that those hole card flashing dealers are going to flash when you are playing so that you will have the edge you think you are going to have? THAT is the greater fool theory adaptation of AP and a very specific example that applies to you.

Here's another: someone who is a DI. How does the DI know that the bounce on the table at the casino he is going to will fit his throw?

Let's take a card counter. Perhaps the blackjack card counter is having a bad day and what if his count is off? Or, suppose a cocktail waitress keeps interrupting the card counter's concentration?

APs need certain conditions to go their way. That is where their edge comes from, just as a bidder at a fine art auction needs certain conditions to go his way. That is wheat brings APs into the conditions of the Greater Fool Theory.

[jbjb]

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

Casinos don't use phantom bucks. Casinos go by the math of the game.

This is EXACTLY what AP's do as well. If we didn't, we wouldn't play, PERIOD!! If you don't and can't understand this, there is no hope for you.

[Alan Mendelson]

Gee, since when do you jbjb ONLY go by the math of the game? You claim an advantage from hole carding. That goes beyond the math of any game.