Is Sports Betting AP Play?

[Alan Mendelson]

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

Coin collectors, art collectors, real estate investors use something similar to your EV. They look at undervalued properties and collectibles. And that what lumps everyone into the Greater Fool Theory pool.

[OneHitWonder]

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

Running around to empty glorified payphones for nickels and dimes isn't any philosophy. Kids do that, or, rather, they used to to, for a moment, "get a leg up on" an adult world.

Perhaps, as an adult, something like that morphs into "it feels good" to (think that you) "defeat" casinos because they are bad. A self projection as God, by which we create a God that has most of our own attributes. But, feelings aren't philosophies, let alone subject to a lot of control.

[coach belly]

I make money casinos because of POSITIVE EV.

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

The crickets are deafening...

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

Wake up those crickets....

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

Running around to empty glorified payphones for nickels and dimes isn't any philosophy. Kids do that, or, rather, they used to to, for a moment, "get a leg up on" an adult world.

Perhaps, as an adult, something like that morphs into "it feels good" to (think that you) "defeat" casinos because they are bad. A self projection as God, by which we create a God that has most of our own attributes. But, feelings aren't philosophies, let alone subject to a lot of control.

Dude, I defeat casinos to put money in the bank. I have no other reason for playing. And your philosophical bullshit reminds me of Yogi Berra. Just a lot of talk without saying anything.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

[MisterV]

APs need certain conditions to go their way. That is where their edge comes from, just as a bidder at a fine art auction needs certain conditions to go his way. That is wheat brings APs into the conditions of the Greater Fool Theory.

What does the hope for an opportunity to hole card or edge sort have to do with the greater fool theory?

Answer: not a god damned thing.

I think The Greatest Fool is running amuck, sprinkling pixie dust throughout the forum.

[kewlJ]

Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes.

Anti-semitic, are you?

Oh stop, you fucktard. (that's a word I am borrowing rom Mickey. )

[kewlJ]

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

[kewlJ]

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

Mickey looks for and finds those opportunities, they just don't happen to find him. Similarly, hole-carders, of which I am not one, look for and find weak dealers. Just the same, real estate prospectors look for and find real estate that is under-valued. That "search", which with casino AP activity is often called "scouting" is part of the process of locating strong opportunities.

Alan you aren't making any sense here to anyone. You are grasping at straws in your continuing effort to undermine and discredit AP's. But PLEASE, tell us again how you are not anti-AP.

[coach belly]

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

[mickeycrimm]

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

[OneHitWonder]

Dude, I defeat casinos to put money in the bank. I have no other reason for playing.

Dude yourself. You don't defeat any casinos. Among other things, you advertise (free of charge) for them with all your repetitious talk here and who knows where about how easily you think you defeat them. Picture boy, and travel guide, no less.

Persons with no other reason for what they do for a living than a bank account - as sad as that sounds - certainly don't spend or associate so much of their time on or with the internet and gambling industry in such vainly great but useless detail. People in the real world rarely set up and attend forums to do with their jobs, and rarer still do they shout over and over again look at smart me surrounded by fools.

What if you're the fucktard punk ass bitch fool that you have been calling every one else (who doesn't immediately fall for your act) over the last decade on the internet? Could it be? Well, at least you have a bank account. Good for you, but so do the rest of us.

[kewlJ]

In some cases they add certain values to their play from: card counting, for example, or hole carding, or adding the value of hotel rooms, and show tickets, and yes, even the value of coffee mugs.

Who does this? I don't know of any legit AP that does this.

I can think of one single AP that I used to know online about a decade ago, that incorporated this kind of value into his earnings. But it was a unique situation. He was a high stakes player and purposely played about a break even game, so as to be welcome. He then took all the "gifts" that the casinos gave him, and I am not talking coffee mugs and tee-shirts, I am talking high end jewelry and shopping sprees including trips, and he sold these things on ebay for a significant profit. I don't even think you could get away with this approach any more as some of these benefits are now non-transferable.

Other than this one specific case, I can think of no other legit AP that incorporates this kind of thing of value as part of actual earnings. Most treat it as a bonus. I guess maybe Jean Scott talked about having an entire room in her home full of these smaller almost trinket type casino give away gifts and maybe adding in value because she used these things for Christmas gifts for friends and relatives instead of purchasing them. That is tacky! (I am glad I am not one of her relatives)

In my own case, my partner and I eat at the casino almost every single day....sometimes twice a day. And there is value in that. Not the overpriced value the casino assigns, but whatever we are saving by not spending cash on our meals or more groceries to eat at home. I DO NOT figure or count this as winnings. I always count it as a extra bonus benefit.

[OneHitWonder]

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

Perhaps, you should give it a rest. But, carry on for the next decade if you get one.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

The only luck involved is I'm lucky enough to have the aptitude for advantage gambling. Ploppies getting up and leaving machines when they are in advantage mode is a phenomenon that has been around ever since machines have been around. There's nothing lucky about finding the plays. If I look for them I find them....multiple plays every day. The edges are big and I rarely have a losing day. Luck has nothing to do with it.

[Biloxi Bill]

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

Hey lookey, it`s the Town Cunt!

[coach belly]

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

[mickeycrimm]

And that what lumps everyone into the Greater Fool Theory pool.

Player A plays a 98% game. Player B plays a 97% game. Player B is the greater fool. That's how the Greater Fool Theory applies to casino gambling.

[kewlJ]

I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

Photos of jackpots prove what? Didn't Alan, talk about his son hitting 6 (higher end) royal flushes in a 24 hour period and ended up losing money over that 24 hour period?

I suspect Singer did similarly. Posted some pictures of high end jackpot wins. Guess what if you have 3 or 4 hundred thousand in Jackpot wins, but lost 5 or 6 hundred thousand dollars to get them....you are not a winning player. From now on let's just call this Singer-math.

[mickeycrimm]

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

Pictures of Jackpots do not prove anything. Ask Alan about that. He's posted plenty of jackpot pictures. But he admittedly has never had a winning year.