Went 1-2 yesterday btw. Got really screwed on the Warriors game.. 24 points in the final 3 mins to push it over by 2. Should've gone 2-1.
Went 1-2 yesterday btw. Got really screwed on the Warriors game.. 24 points in the final 3 mins to push it over by 2. Should've gone 2-1.
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Somehow my final 3 picks posted never made it up here. Posted them hours in advance, but the post didn't show up. Weird. It's too bad, as they went 2-1. Sorry about that.
Posted them on my PokerFraudAlert Forum though (hours before the games).
They were:
Boston Under 205
Lakers Under 204 -115
Minnesota -8
Boston lost, the other two won.
Record now 85-54-2
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I sat for an hour deciding what to do about this Cleveland game
Kept wanting to do under but couldn't quite decide upon it, and this game had so much action (I believe the most of any NBA game this season) that I decided to sit it out. I'm guessing the line is too sharp on this one.
I also suck at the Cavaliers.
Was going to bet under on NY/Phi today (which would've won) but my son woke up way earlier than expected and distracted me, so couldn't do that. Oh well.
I don't see anything I like in the next game (Boston/Wash).
Chris Paul missing from Houston game (probably) and I am probably skipping that one, too.
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You've got 7 hours for this one.
Minnesota -5.5
Minnesota Under 215.5
Lonzo Ball out. Brandon Ingram may or may not play.
Probably won't fire on the other games.
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Add OKC +0 -125 to the mix. You can get this on Bovada.
If you can't get -125, go for OKC -2 -110.
Chris Paul ruled out.
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Took two of three, to take my record to 87-55-2.
For awhile, I've been wondering whether or not I've just been getting lucky with the NBA.
I have posted 144 picks on my pokerfraudalert.com site. Two were ties, so we will throw those out.
Of the remaining 142, I won 87 and lost 55.
How possible is it that I simply ran well and achieved those extra 32 wins thanks to dumb luck?
Fortunately, since just about all of my picks are sides, it's basically equivalent to a coinflip. That is, if it were not for the house juice on both side, I would be paid even money for winning.
There are a few exceptions to this, such as picks where I get -115 instead of -110, as well as two or three -125/-120 type moneyilne picks, but I also had my share of -105 lines in there (which cancel some/all of those out), so I believe this is mostly negligible, and I will ignore it.
So the grand question becomes: In a "coin flip" situation where you're basically picking one side or the other, both of which pay the same, what are the chances of getting 87 out of 142 correct?
I ran this through a coin-flipping calculator and found that the chances are very small 0.45%.
This means that there's a 99.55% chance that I have achieved this NBA record through at least some degree of handicapping skill.
Anyone who wants to play with the calculator, go here: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Enter 0.5 in the first box (indicating a coin flip), then the number of non-tie picks in the second box, and the number of wins in the 3rd box.
The bottom result given is the probability that you would have achieved that number of wins (or better) by good luck alone.
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Orlando under 205 (already posted this on my other site and bet earlier, now line is at 204, which is still ok)
Sacramento under 205 -115 (under 204.5 -110 ok)
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Bovada shut down the betting on the Orlando game so i couldn't get a bet down. Dan, do you know why they sometimes do that? Do they also open it back up sometimes before game time?
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
I agree that its has to do with skill and handicapping ability. However I have been in that position with great seasons in basketball, hockey, baseball , football occur the last 20 years betting in reno. But I cannot say that my analysis works each season. Sometimes its analysis, memory of past games I saw, and luck(the bounce of the ball)..add them all together and sometimes you get a period of great results.
if your record is sustainable year after year....then you can quit your day job and snowball your bankroll into huge dollars.
Personally, I have had about a 6 percent profit over the last 5 years...on 80k a year of bets. Thats not even minimum wage when you count the hours I put in doing analysis. But I enjoy it.
Enjoy your rush,,,,it happens in sports, and it happens in poker where there is a period that you cant lose a hand. Those are my 2 games....poker and sports. And have had nice profitable periods in both. But never sustainable.
One last NBA pick (starts in 15 min):
Denver -5.5
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Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com
Lots of games today, but aside from the early two, I couldn't find anything good.
But we do have these:
Charlotte +1.5 -115 (+1 -110 ok)
Charlotte Under 206
Dallas +4 (no Oladipo)
Dallas may be OTB on your book right now. Betonline has it at the moment.
Boston has Brown out, Charlotte has Kidd-Gilchrist recovering from an injury (but he's very likely playing) and Williams with a sore finger (probably playing)
May post one or two more later... monitoring some others
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One more...
Lakers -3.5
Another shitshow game, with Mike Conley, JaMychal Green, Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez, and possibly Tyreke Evans and Brandon Ingram out.
However, Ingram will probably have a go at it today (on a minutes restriction). Evans is the key here, as he has right knee issues, which is the same knee which he had surgery. If he's out, or if he's not healthy enough to be himself, the Grizzlies are complete garbage. This is already a bad team (5-22 in their last 27), but with Evans out, they're really horrible. Reserve Brandan Wright will also be missing.
Still monitoring the total.
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2-2 day last night, now 91-58-2.
Today:
Orlando +4
Starting at 4:05pm PST
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Orlando won by 13. Was leading almost the whole way.
They just announced Lillard is out.
Two more bets (starting 7:40 PST):
Philly -1 (-1.5 ok)
Phily under 207.5 (under 207 ok)
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Well I got screwed hard on that Philly game. 18-point lead in the 3rd shot off. They had a 13-point lead entering the 4th, and lost by 4, giving up 42 points in the 4th and just scoring 25 (also screwing my under).
Record now 92-60-2 after this 1-2 day.
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The 76ers played one real anomalous whackjob fourth. No clue leading up to it that they'd go in the tank like that. Good job -- keep grinding.
at around the 5:30 mark the score in the 4th was 25-5. Sixers had only 5 points in over 6 minutes.
Indiana +2.5 (certain Bovada accounts can get +3 -115)
Dallas Over 212.5 (212 -115 on Bovada right now if you want it)
Sacramento -3 -105 (-110 ok)
Charlotte +10 -115 (+9.5 -110 ok)
Lakers Over 216 -115 (216.5 -110 ok)
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3-2 yesterday. None were close.
Today:
NBA
NY Knicks +5.5 -105 (I'm doing a half/half spread and +190 moneyline bet, but I am counting it as a spread bet for my record here)
Atlanta +3.5 -105
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