2018 start

[LarryS]

I will accept that even casinos don't have a profit every day but they still have an edge and that's how they remain in business.

Can someone....anyone explain these 3 statements to me???...one which contradicts the other two!

aLAN NEVER ASKED THE RIGHT QUESTIONS FROM THE BEGINNING,

So KJ said he lost 8800, his previous 5 days winnings. But he never asked what was your daily bankroll. If his daily bankroll was 10k....then big deal. If his daily bankroll was 200 dollars..then he can critique all he wants.

Every time I was invlved in a hot table at craps, it didnt start out that way, I had to feed the table till things turned around....and you never know when that happens. And I am not an AP........but it happens with anyone. Sometimes I CONTINUE AND LOSE THE REST OF MY BANKROLL FOR THE Day....AND SOMETIMES I CONTINUE AND THINGS TURN AROUND.

[kewlJ]

They don't contradict. And I even said that with your bankroll you can also ride out the one day slump you had.

But I continue to question your judgment. And I do that because there are people who learn from these discussions so please explain.

To start answer these questions which I asked before:

When did you realize you were losing? Why wouldn't you walk away before you lost $8800?

Having an edge is one factor to be a smart gambler, but money management is also important.

Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I purposely didn't answer your questions the first 3 times you asked because they are irrelevant questions and frankly you are not going to understand my answers. But I will answer to humor you.

When did I realize I was losing? Don't be ridiculous. I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.

Why wouldn't I walk away? Because whether I was winning or losing that day, is completely irrelevant. That is just variation. I was accumulating strong EV and in the end (long-term) my actual win and EV will be very close. Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win.

I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."

That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP.

[Alan Mendelson]

LarryS I disagree with you. Kewlj said he has a $100K bankroll, so his starting bankroll each day is not significant. He always had more money within his reach.

The question is why he let go of his five days of profits in one day? Perhaps for him $8800 of profits against a $100K bankroll is insignificant -- and it is. But at the same time did he have to lose all $8800 in one day? What was so compelling that he had to keep playing?

Being an AP, as I understand it, is having a business. What business owner keeps throwing good money after bad? I've asked him when did he realize he was losing? Did he not realize he was losing until all $8800 was gone -- the amount he previously won over five days?

[mickeycrimm]

Obviously if you're losing you don't have an edge at all.

?

I never had an edge. I accept my losses because of that.
But someone with an edge and loses needs to consider why.

You are getting stupider and more bizarre by the minute.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I think you need to find out what a rising stop loss is.

[Alan Mendelson]

?

I never had an edge. I accept my losses because of that.
But someone with an edge and loses needs to consider why.

You are getting stupider and more bizarre by the minute.

No, it's just foreign to you.

[mickeycrimm]

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads 7 times there is nothing unusual about that. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times and it comes up heads 7,000 times then either the coin or the coin flipper is crooked. KJ just experienced some above normal short term variance is all. Now, on to the next subject.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads 7 times there is nothing unusual about that. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times and it comes up heads 7,000 times then either the coin or the coin flipper is crooked. KJ just experienced some above normal short term variance is all. Now, on to the next subject.

I love it when discussions turn to coin flips. It means you've run out of answers. That's okay.

It's not about a coin flip and I really want kewlj to respond:

1. When did you realize you were losing?
2. What made you keep playing to the point that you lost $8800 which was the amount you won in the previous five days?

[jbjb]

Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I think you need to find out what a rising stop loss is.

And you earned how much lifetime in your gambling career??? Oh wait, you haven't earned ANYTHING!!!

[mickeycrimm]

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads 7 times there is nothing unusual about that. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times and it comes up heads 7,000 times then either the coin or the coin flipper is crooked. KJ just experienced some above normal short term variance is all. Now, on to the next subject.

I love it when discussions turn to coin flips. It means you've run out of answers. That's okay.

It's not about a coin flip and I really want kewlj to respond:

1. When did you realize you were losing?
2. What made you keep playing to the point that you lost $8800 which was the amount you won in the previous five days?

You are right. This is not about a coin flip. It is about what a dunce you are. Dunce Mendelson.

[kewlJ]

I think what Alan is attempting or 'hoping' to do in this thread is paint me as a player lacking self control. He could not be more wrong on this issue.

Earlier, I sort of listed when it's time to quit, and how winning and losing is not part of that decision. I specifically left out a circumstance of when a player is losing control, losing discipline, maybe chasing. Axel picked up on that and mentioned it. I specifically left that out because IF that situation is occurring, the player has bigger problems. An AP is disciplined and in control of emotions at all times.

There have been exactly two times in my 14 year career that I felt I was losing control of my emotions so I quite early. They both occurred 6 months apart, late 2010 and early 2011. And they both involved huge WINS....not huge losses.

One is an episode I call the perfect shoe. I believe I wrote about it at WOV and am not going to repeat it here. But the synopsis is that from the time the shoe went positive, max bet positive, which was fairly early on, I did not lose a round. I believe I pushed two hands and won every other including a number of double downs and splits (oddly no blackjacks). Playing heads up I won just over 20k in that one shoe. It was by far the most I had ever won in a single day and obviously session (and still is) and frankly I sort of lost my composure. I was not mentally prepared to continue that day, so I quit early even though I only played about 30 minutes that day.

So I intentionally left that type of extremely rare and unique situation out. But if a player is feeling the need to quit early because he/she is not in control of their emotions on a regular basis, they have issues. They are lacking one of the top characteristic that an AP must have to succeed.

I believe Alan is trying to paint me in that light, as he attempts to discredit me, which has been an ongoing thing with him. Alan, you are completely off base.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I think you need to find out what a rising stop loss is.

And you earned how much lifetime in your gambling career??? Oh wait, you haven't earned ANYTHING!!!

I never had an annual profit gambling.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I'm not trying to discredit you but anyone BESIDES an AP is asking what I'm asking. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

Answer that, please.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj I'm not trying to discredit you but anyone BESIDES an AP is asking what I'm asking. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

Answer that, please.

I have answered that....a half dozen times. Losses don't matter, in the short term. Playing and accumulating EV is what matters. As a matter of fact, I will even go a little further which will blow your mind and say that losing sessions are beneficial. They contribute to longevity.

[Alan Mendelson]

You didnt answer my questions, but okay. I wish you the best of luck.

[MisterV]

What would YOU do MisterV?

I'd cut the soles off my shoes, sit in a tree and learn to play the flute.

[LarryS]

Kewlj I'm not trying to discredit you but anyone BESIDES an AP is asking what I'm asking. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

Answer that, please.

how the fuck does one know that when they stop they are cutting losses or cutting out future profit. Are your a fortune teller. Can you always tell when the next hot roller is going to start at craps? You only know in hindsight if u had actually cut losses had you stopped. You never know at the moment. You can say NOW that if KJ stopped he would have lost less. Or if he never got out of bed he would have lost nothing. Very easy to say after the fact.

[Dankyone]

I will accept that even casinos don't have a profit every day but they still have an edge and that's how they remain in business.

Can someone....anyone explain these 3 statements to me???...one which contradicts the other two!

Alan just does not understand this topic. Stop responding NOW or this will go on for about 3 years.

[Dankyone]

I think you need to find out what a rising stop loss is.

And you earned how much lifetime in your gambling career??? Oh wait, you haven't earned ANYTHING!!!

I never had an annual profit gambling.

Of course you haven’t. I do wonder, then, why you continually challenge and question those who have.

[regnis]

Kewlj I'm not trying to discredit you but anyone BESIDES an AP is asking what I'm asking. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

Answer that, please.

I have answered that....a half dozen times. Losses don't matter, in the short term. Playing and accumulating EV is what matters. As a matter of fact, I will even go a little further which will blow your mind and say that losing sessions are beneficial. They contribute to longevity.

Kewl-can you explain exactly what it means to "accumulate EV". I'm not understanding that concept.

On days that I can't pick a winner in horses I do stop as tomorrow is another day. Ev or not, if I am having a bad day I don't chase my losses. Same as when I was a sports bettor. On the other hand, I never quit when craps were going bad as I knew I would have at least one big hand if I were patient and waited for my roll. I don't know what's right or wrong but I would recognize a bad day and walk if I were in Kewl's situation----probably at around 4k. Now I don't know what his average bet is. If he's betting a thou per hand then the 8k is nothing.