Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
During this discussion of EV (expected value) in the "start to 2018" thread, it occurred to me how EV and variance is very different for a blackjack card counter than for you machine-type AP's, like mickeycrimm, RS, Axelwolf, Monet and others. (I don't know exactly what MaxPens' AP play consists of)

You guys have it made! Negative variance for most machine play would seem to be actual winnings of less than expectation. BUT STILL WINNINGS!

Negative variance for card counters very often involves, actual losing....periods in the red, before you show a profit.

Negative variance for a card counter is taking a step backwards before you take two steps forward, while negative variance for machine AP's is taking half a step forward when you were expecting to take a full step. (No step back).
It's not that we don't experience negative (losing $$$) variance, but.....idk, it's a lot different, IMO, for machine play vs CC blackjack.

Only considering good & strong plays, it seems like the main "negative variance" thing is to get shut down by the casino -- which is usually something like offers getting rescinded or offers drying up much faster than anticipated, or just flat out getting scammed by the casino because they offered X if we do Y, we do Y, then they're no longer honoring to give out X.