2018 start

[mickeycrimm]

EV is nothing more than a wish and a hope. Drop it already.

EV built Las Vegas.

So did seriously threatening to beat people up? Not so different from your "hero", of a few weeks ago, who promptly turned right around and said it was all a big joke, after a bunch of people called him on it.

Fourteen years is a lot of time make shit up, get tossed off the major blackjack forums, and while away the time bickering endlessly over who said and did what to whom at the lesser ones.

And you guys want instant credibility on the internet?

I don't need credibility. If you don't believe what I write I don't give a rat's ass. Have you ever made a post here that isn't a troll?

[mickeycrimm]

So did seriously threatening to beat people up? Not so different from your "hero", of a few weeks ago, who promptly turned right around and said it was all a big joke, after a bunch of people called him on it.

What was funny was those guys thought he was serious and got scared. When it was going on KJ and I were trading PM's about it and laughing our asses off. It was so out of character that it was obvious KJ was jerking their chains.

[mickeycrimm]

This is Alan being idiotic.

This is another despicable post by you ...you should be banned.

This is another despicable post by you....you should be banned.

[mickeycrimm]

P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers.

Likely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.

Why? The comparison here is between result and expected value, which would show the variance.

Like the story of Mickey's slot play that, supposedly, if we believe another big AP, obviously didn't happen. Unless, of course, it happens only once a year. Right, Mickey?

Wrong, Yung. Sonnyboy you are clueless.

[Alan Mendelson]

NO, You can't spend EV, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT.

Thank you, AxelWolf. That's the entire point I was trying to make. And because you can't spend EV to claim that you played thousands of dollars at your EV while losing money (let's say $8800) does not make you a winner or give you a profit or bring you closer to having a profit or even being closer to being a winner.

Now kewlj and the rest of you might want to argue this till doomsday but it's not going to change. EV is not legal tender for all debts public and private.

[mickeycrimm]

... ask Shell if they'll let you pay for a tank of gas with EV. Ask kewlj if he ever made a mortgage payment with EV.

Speaking of gas I'm getting a 5% rebate on gas purchases this quarter on one of my credit cards. I pay the balance off every month so I don't get tagged for interest. I guess you could say this is an AP move. The only reason I have this particular card is because of the various rebate offers I get every quarter. And I sometimes buy my gas at Shell.

[The Boz]

... ask Shell if they'll let you pay for a tank of gas with EV. Ask kewlj if he ever made a mortgage payment with EV.

Speaking of gas I'm getting a 5% rebate on gas purchases this quarter on one of my credit cards. I pay the balance off every month so I don't get tagged for interest. I guess you could say this is an AP move. The only reason I have this particular card is because of the various rebate offers I get every quarter. And I sometimes buy my gas at Shell.

The Credit card game is an easy +EV play for those disciplined enough to properly use it and can survive the credit score swings from the hard inquiries. There are websites out there with the best public card deals and more unlisted ones out there.

As you said, you must pay them off every month or the interest kills any advantage from rebates or sign up deals.

Wells Fargo has a good cash back card with a current $200 signup if you spend $1000 in 3 months along with 1.5 cashback on every purchase or 1.8% back on charges made with Apple Pay. You can deposit your money into a WF checking account, get a check mailed to you or.... imagine this Alan, pay your WF mortgage principal with it. So technically you are paying your mortgage with +EV.

[Bill Yung]

I guess Bill Yung is going to pick up the slack of the anti-AP agenda guys, taking shots at various AP's and adding nothing constructive. You anti-Ap guys seem to have a deep bench.

They're jealous losers. Let them cry.

Look, I picked out one of the run-on bits to reply to, so as not to continue to waste all of my own time.

Go to any casino any night of the week. How often does anyone at any table win $40,000? How often? In the near empty high-roller rooms? Are any of the weird games in there? You could play for decades, and not see that.

On the internet, though, apparently, it's everywhere. But all I see is casinos with people and cameras up everybody's you know what. Go, sometime, and see what I mean. Tell me they don't see the ones making all that money.

So, no, I don't care about who wins or loses, in any case. And yes, it's fun to poke a stick at the ones who do.

[The Boz]

I ask why stop because you've hit on a gold mine: $15 a minute or $900 an hour.

Alan, your answer here is proof that you don't have a clue about advantage plays. The game in question is a video line game with a banking feature on it. There is a cloverleaf symbol on the 5th reel. When it lands on the line there is a counter that moves from zero to 1. The cloverleaf lands on the line an average of every 36 spins. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a second time the counter moves to 2. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a third time you go into a bonus round. It's a positive play when I find the counter on 2. How did it get on 2? Some ploppie did it then walked. I only have to catch the cloverleaf one time to get the bonus. Once I catch the cloverleaf and get the bonus the counter resets to zero and the game is back in negative expectation so I cash out. I might find a dozen plays a month but it is just one of about a dozen games I exploit.

That was my point with Alan. He had to understand this play isn’t something you sit and play hour after hour. But he wanted it to sound like you were claiming you make $900 an hour. I still contend he isn’t as naive as he comes off.

[Bill Yung]

I still contend he isn’t as naive as he comes off.

If you were smart, ie, played optimal strategy, you would assume this, and get on with your own life. And not appear so foolish.

[The Boz]

I still contend he isn’t as naive as he comes off.

If you were smart, ie, played optimal strategy, you would assume this, and get on with your own life. And not appear so foolish.

Thanks for the advice! I feel welcome here and honored now once with you generously providing your free unsolicited opinion.

[Alan Mendelson]

So now it turns out mickeycrimm was not telling the whole story and left out vital details including that he had to scout for hands or clovers or whatever left over by previous ploppies, which means that it wasn't so easy to make $15 in one minure. So why did he leave out these details?

[Dankyone]

I ask why stop because you've hit on a gold mine: $15 a minute or $900 an hour.

Alan, your answer here is proof that you don't have a clue about advantage plays. The game in question is a video line game with a banking feature on it. There is a cloverleaf symbol on the 5th reel. When it lands on the line there is a counter that moves from zero to 1. The cloverleaf lands on the line an average of every 36 spins. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a second time the counter moves to 2. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a third time you go into a bonus round. It's a positive play when I find the counter on 2. How did it get on 2? Some ploppie did it then walked. I only have to catch the cloverleaf one time to get the bonus. Once I catch the cloverleaf and get the bonus the counter resets to zero and the game is back in negative expectation so I cash out. I might find a dozen plays a month but it is just one of about a dozen games I exploit.

That was my point with Alan. He had to understand this play isn’t something you sit and play hour after hour. But he wanted it to sound like you were claiming you make $900 an hour. I still contend he isn’t as naive as he comes off.

This is the whole problem. Alan DOESN’T understand that. He doesn’t really understand what advantage play even is, or why scouting is essential, or why advantage players can’t and don’t win on every single play. Now Mickey gave him an exceptionally detailed, clear explanation. He won’t understand that either, he will make several more questions/ challenges—-still won’t understand—-and then Mickey will give up in disgust.

[Dankyone]

So now it turns out mickeycrimm was not telling the whole story and left out vital details including that he had to scout for hands or clovers or whatever left over by previous ploppies, which means that it wasn't so easy to make $15 in one minure. So why did he leave out these details?

Because everyone who understands what he is doing knows scouting is essential for every one of his plays. He has explained it over and over and over. It’s very clear and credible. I don’t have any interest in doing it, but I understand and respect it.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm sorry but it wasn't clear. Look at mickeycrimm's initial comment about this. Absolutely NO mention was made about scouting or finding abandoned clovers or whatever.

Now you might be able to fill in the blanks but I didn't know there were blanks to be filled.

Had I quoted mickeycrimm in a TV news report I could have been suspended for reporting inaccurate info.

[The Boz]

Had I quoted mickeycrimm in a TV news report I could have been suspended for reporting inaccurate info.

Yea that happens in today’s media environment. If it did CNN would be out of staff and would have to run Forensic Files 24 hours a day like they do on Headline News.

[Bill Yung]

I don’t have any interest in doing it, but I understand and respect it.

I recall he wrote there is one other person in the other half of Montana. They stay out of each other's way. I don't know what the other guy is packing, he didn't say.

[mickeycrimm]

So now it turns out mickeycrimm was not telling the whole story and left out vital details including that he had to scout for hands or clovers or whatever left over by previous ploppies, which means that it wasn't so easy to make $15 in one minure. So why did he leave out these details?

I've explained many times that on my Montana plays I spend about half the time scouting and half the time in the seat spinning the plays off. Under current conditions my seat time is worth an average of about $100 an hour. It's been as high as $140 an hour in the past. I usually hit the casinos at 8 AM when they open up and I head back to the hotel around 4 PM. I don't get in a hurry. I don't overwork myself. I just mosey around and pick off plays. So you can say my overall time is worth about $50 an hour. But that is in Montana and I now have out of state plays. My time is now divided up between Montana and out of state.

I STILL haven't explained all of the details of this particular play. I have driving to do today so can't get into it now. But when I do you will get to learn about how static bonuses work.

[mickeycrimm]

I don’t have any interest in doing it, but I understand and respect it.

I recall he wrote there is one other person in the other half of Montana. They stay out of each other's way. I don't know what the other guy is packing, he didn't say.

I taught the other guy everything he knows about video poker and slot advantages. We were friends. He was always following me around in Nevada and horning in on my plays. He came up here two years after I got here. We were in phone contact but I didn't tell him anything about how lucrative it was. But he is a smart guy and he knew I wouldn't be hanging out in Montana if I wasn't making decent money. He came up under the guise of paying me back the $4000 I once loaned him and never went back to Nevada to pick the money up, which he had laying in his safety deposit box at the Golden Nugget.

He was a trouble maker kind of guy in Nevada but never messed with me. That is, until he got to Montana. He screwed me over a couple of times so I eventually told him no more contact. He left Montana a couple of years ago because plays dried up to where he couldn't make decent money. But not before teaching someone in Billings some of the plays left . I know someone who knows the guy he taught.

But what he didn't realize was some of the new games were highly exploitable. He doesn't have the ability to figure the complicated ones out and he doesn't have me to teach them to him anymore. He left thinking it was no longer good in Montana. That's what he gets for fucking me over.

[kewlJ]

imagine this Alan, pay your WF mortgage principal with it. So technically you are paying your mortgage with +EV.

How about this one? Our machine play generates entries into drawings. This is additional positive expectation. I don't know quite how to go about figuring out what it is worth. Dancer has some sort of formula, but it is beyond me. I just count it as extra bonus expected value.

So is there anybody that would argue this is not positive value? Alan?

So over the years, I have won a number of these drawings, most small amounts of a couple hundred in free play, to few larger prizes, 10k cash, an automobile and a couple years ago, I won.....one year of rent or mortgage payments. That would be positive EV paying my mortgage Alan.

Of course that really wasn't what I or anyone was saying when we say +EV pays our bills. Alan knows this, he is just playing his usual "technicality" game.