Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
My complaint with kewlj's +EV is that he's counting his $8800 loss as some kind of cockamamie contribution to his +EV.
This is because YOU don't understand what EV even is. And you don't want to understand. You just want to troll, making accusations based on your predetermined uninformed opinions.

I am going to treat you like an adult, like a reasonable person, and yet again try to explain to you blackjack EV. And I am quite sure, you won't listen, won't try to understand and I will regret it.

Blackjack EV (expected value):
Every hand that a player plays has an expected value, based on whether the player has the advantage for that round or the dealer, which is determined by the count as the hand is played, multiplied by the amount of the wager. Some rounds favor the player (positive counts). Negative counts favor the dealer. Neutral counts slightly favor the dealer. So every round played has an EV, some positive, some negative.

So we can't add all the EV together by actually tracking the actual EV. That would be near impossible without a computer. So we figure the EV through computer simulations, which will tell us on average, just how many hands per 100 hands played will be positive EV and how many will be negative EV. This allows us to come up with an average EV per 100 hands played and subsequently an average EV per hand. Most of the games I play the EV (expected value) or expected win for +EV, is anywhere between $75 and $120 per 100 rounds played, depending on number of decks, rules and penetration. That means that each round played is worth between 75 cents and $1.20.

For ease of this explanation, let's just assume I am playing a game that generates an even $1 per round EV. So I sit down and play 2 shoes at a game with 2 other players. That is 4 hands per round (3 player and dealer) @ 2.8 cards per hand which is the average number of cards as per Don Schlesingers Blackjack Attack 3 (just stating where these numbers are coming from). That is 21 rounds played before the shuffle x 2 shoes is 42 rounds played. So that is $42 in EV.

Next casino (or maybe another table or pit at the same casino) I play 36 rounds, same conditions. That is another $36 in EV. At the end of the day I add up the EV from each session for a total EV for the day. (My goal each day is $300 in EV). Now I take each of those daily EV totals and add then up for the year and by years end the EV and actual win are usually pretty close. This represents the long-term (by my definition). And if you extend it out even further, adding several years together, the actual win and EV is even closer.

For example 2010 thru 2017, my first 8 full years in Vegas my blackjack EV totaled $566,000 and my actual blackjack win was $587,000. THAT is pretty darn close! This is what EV is. It grows by the amount you play and that's why you keep playing. Daily wins and losses don't matter. THAT is nothing but short-term variance. But when you get into the long-term, of months and year(s), EV and actual win will be pretty darn close. And that is not an accident or coincidence. That is mathematics!

So when I have a day that I lose $3000 or $5000, or $8800, or even $10,000 it is almost irrelevant. What will matter is the EV earned. That is where the actual win will end up long-term. AND it works the other way as well. When I have a day that I win $6500, I haven't really won $6500. That is just variance. What I have really earned (and won long-term) is the amount of EV I played that day.

This is a pretty good explanation. I have taught 3 different people to play, including one who was basically an idiot, and even he managed to understand. Yet, somehow, I just know you still won't get it. In large part, because you don't want to get it.