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[Alan Mendelson]

Sh-t happens.

Since you decided to not understand or accept my poker analogy I will try one more attempt with you.

Was THIS a surprise to you, monet? Welcome to the world of trying to deal with Alan Mendelson.

Since I have your attention, why don't you explain how you can have "expected value" AFTER a bet has been resolved? As I mentioned, even on the Wizard of Odds "expected value" is defined as the value of a bet before it's resolved. To be specific, this comes from the Wizard's site:

Expected Value
Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet. For example the expected value in American double-zero roulette is -5.26%. That means you can expect to lose 5.26% of every dollar you bet.

In your explanations, you have maintained that you have +EV even from the bets you lose. Please explain.

[RS__]

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

Posts like these are why people say (know*) you're trolling.

[monet]

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

I decided to take a quick break and let some paint dry and check in on this site before I apply another coat. My walls are very thick and I just realized how thick they are.

I don't understand. You do play 5 dollar Video Poker... you have played 25 dollar Video Poker as well since I heard you say something about hitting two 100k Royals. So you bet 125 dollars on a hand of Video Poker but refuse to bet 100 dollars to my 110 dollars on the flip of a coin? Even if you don't play 25 dollar VP... I seen your recent 5 dollar Sams Town Video Poker Royal and that is 25 dollars per hand!?

Over on WoV I fell for some very clever bait from the Wizard of Odds so I am trying not to take the free cheese in mouse traps anymore.

Let us put it this way... if we flip a coin and every time Heads comes up I pay you 2 dollars and every time Tails comes up you pay me only 1 dollar? Are you trying to say that you would not play that game all day every day for as long as you possibly could even if you were down 1000 dollars for one day of play?

[Alan Mendelson]

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

Posts like these are why people say (know*) you're trolling.

I'm trolling? It wasn't me who posted the flip coin question. I simply responded to it.

I can't talk theory like the rest of you. I talk about reality.

You are trolling me.

[Alan Mendelson]

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

I decided to take a quick break and let some paint dry and check in on this site before I apply another coat. My walls are very thick and I just realized how thick they are.

I don't understand. You do play 5 dollar Video Poker... you have played 25 dollar Video Poker as well since I heard you say something about hitting two 100k Royals. So you bet 125 dollars on a hand of Video Poker but refuse to bet 100 dollars to my 110 dollars on the flip of a coin? Even if you don't play 25 dollar VP... I seen your recent 5 dollar Sams Town Video Poker Royal and that is 25 dollars per hand!?

Over on WoV I fell for some very clever bait from the Wizard of Odds so I am trying not to take the free cheese in mouse traps anymore.

Let us put it this way... if we flip a coin and every time Heads comes up I pay you 2 dollars and every time Tails comes up you pay me only 1 dollar? Are you trying to say that you would not play that game all day every day for as long as you possibly could even if you were down 1000 dollars for one day of play?

I certainly would have a stop loss so I would never be down 1000 dollars flipping coins.

[LarryS]

Sh-t happens.

Since you decided to not understand or accept my poker analogy I will try one more attempt with you. I am currently painting my walls and having a conversation with my wall that is pretty interesting so I will try to make this quick so I can get back to my wall.

Let us pretend for an example that you and I are going to flip a quarter every day and we can quit whenever we want each day. This will not be a trick quarter and no monkey business what so ever. It will just be you and I flipping a quarter and each time it lands on Heads I will pay you 110 dollars. Each time the quarter lands on Tails you will pay me 100 dollars. Now let us pretend for the first two weeks of the year you are beating me out of 8000 dollars. On day 15 you are having a really bad run and you have given back the 8000 dollars to me plus another 500 so you are down 500 for the year. Are you going to stop flipping this quarter with me because you are down 8500 for the day? I mean you have the edge every time we flip. Wouldn't you want to flip this quarter with me 24 hours a day 7 days a week until the end of time? The same goes for someone who is playing at an advantage in the Casino. No matter the fluctuations of being up or down each day we know that in the end we will make so much per hour, per month, per year. We also know the more we play the more we make in the way of all the extras go along.

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

you know, I give monet credit.....he presented a perfect analogy. He covered all the bases of bogus coins, etc. But here alan comes up with the "I dont" retort.

so....why didnt tou bet even a dollar while the 18 yos were being thrown at a near empty table.....answer "i dont bet hardways"

and..."what about this coin flip analogy....do you see the valid point I am making".........answer..."i dont flit coins or cards"

THAT RESPONSE IS INTELLECTUALLY BANKRUPT.

The basis of the question was not whether YOU YOU YOU like to bet on flipped coins.....But was rather ....would a rational person who had simple high school education be able to see the advantage in a situation and want to continue. No one fucking cares if you personally like to bet on cards or coin flips. That obviously wasnt the point. You are smart enough to realize that.....and you are evasive enough, dishonest enough to turn the analogy into something it wasnt.

the "i dont" mantra is rather telling. It says that you are evasive and dishonest, and use the "i dont" mantra as a mommies skirt to hide behind when the other boys in town question your honesty.

[Alan Mendelson]

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

I decided to take a quick break and let some paint dry and check in on this site before I apply another coat. My walls are very thick and I just realized how thick they are.

I don't understand. You do play 5 dollar Video Poker... you have played 25 dollar Video Poker as well since I heard you say something about hitting two 100k Royals. So you bet 125 dollars on a hand of Video Poker but refuse to bet 100 dollars to my 110 dollars on the flip of a coin? Even if you don't play 25 dollar VP... I seen your recent 5 dollar Sams Town Video Poker Royal and that is 25 dollars per hand!?

Over on WoV I fell for some very clever bait from the Wizard of Odds so I am trying not to take the free cheese in mouse traps anymore.

Let us put it this way... if we flip a coin and every time Heads comes up I pay you 2 dollars and every time Tails comes up you pay me only 1 dollar? Are you trying to say that you would not play that game all day every day for as long as you possibly could even if you were down 1000 dollars for one day of play?

I certainly would have a stop loss so I would never be down 1000 dollars flipping coins.

And since you don't know:

The first $100K royal I hit with only $2,000 in the machine and prior to hitting the $100K I hit several quads at the $5 and $25 level. I almost called it quits when I was ahead by about $5,000 but I used a rising stop loss (Google it).

The second $100K royal I hit with $2500 of free play money -- not a dime of my own.

The Sam's Town Royal came after I hit the ALL at craps betting the maximum there which was $25 on the small and tall, and $10 on the all. Then I had only $200 in the $5 8/5 Bonus Progressive and started hitting and got the royal with only a few minutes of play. And then I went home.

[tableplay]

I certainly would have a stop loss so I would never be down 1000 dollars flipping coins.

By that logic a whale could get a casino to shut down if they hit the casino's stop loss. Yet the casinos plod on, taking on all takers despite the occasional hiccup; i.e. they don't have a stop loss.

[Alan Mendelson]

Since you decided to not understand or accept my poker analogy I will try one more attempt with you. I am currently painting my walls and having a conversation with my wall that is pretty interesting so I will try to make this quick so I can get back to my wall.

Let us pretend for an example that you and I are going to flip a quarter every day and we can quit whenever we want each day. This will not be a trick quarter and no monkey business what so ever. It will just be you and I flipping a quarter and each time it lands on Heads I will pay you 110 dollars. Each time the quarter lands on Tails you will pay me 100 dollars. Now let us pretend for the first two weeks of the year you are beating me out of 8000 dollars. On day 15 you are having a really bad run and you have given back the 8000 dollars to me plus another 500 so you are down 500 for the year. Are you going to stop flipping this quarter with me because you are down 8500 for the day? I mean you have the edge every time we flip. Wouldn't you want to flip this quarter with me 24 hours a day 7 days a week until the end of time? The same goes for someone who is playing at an advantage in the Casino. No matter the fluctuations of being up or down each day we know that in the end we will make so much per hour, per month, per year. We also know the more we play the more we make in the way of all the extras go along.

Gosh, I hate to disappoint you but I wouldn't bet $100 on the flip of a coin. This is probably why I hate blackjack. I hate the idea of losing my bet based on the flip of a card. Ironically I'll accept the roll of two dice, but that's something I've grown to accept. I just hate coin flips and card flips, and $100 per decision is too much for me.

you know, I give monet credit.....he presented a perfect analogy. He covered all the bases of bogus coins, etc. But here alan comes up with the "I dont" retort.

so....why didnt tou bet even a dollar while the 18 yos were being thrown at a near empty table.....answer "i dont bet hardways"

and..."what about this coin flip analogy....do you see the valid point I am making".........answer..."i dont flit coins or cards"

THAT RESPONSE IS INTELLECTUALLY BANKRUPT.

The basis of the question was not whether YOU YOU YOU like to bet on flipped coins.....But was rather ....would a rational person who had simple high school education be able to see the advantage in a situation and want to continue. No one fucking cares if you personally like to bet on cards or coin flips. That obviously wasnt the point. You are smart enough to realize that.....and you are evasive enough, dishonest enough to turn the analogy into something it wasnt.

the "i dont" mantra is rather telling. It says that you are evasive and dishonest, and use the "i dont" mantra as a mommies skirt to hide behind when the other boys in town question your honesty.

Let's be honest, you don't play craps. People who bet the horns and hardways are called "crazy crappers." These are bets with high house edges. I am surprised any one of you would even criticize me for not betting the 11.

You tell me that seeing so many 11s in a row is a billion to one possibility -- but you expected me to bet it? I am a very conservative craps player. I know that there is no way to beat the game of craps because it is a negative expectation game. So my bets are limited to the inside numbers.

Yes, I bet the Bonus Craps bets and I have had a lot of luck at those bets. I didn't post this before but in the past four days I hit the ALL four times. Once I was shooting and three times others were shooting. Two of those four ALLs came at the same table. I like Bonus Craps because you don't have to roll any number twice, and you don't even have to make a single pass to win it. In fact, I've hit the ALL many times without making a single pass.

Any "advantage player" would have done EXACTLY what I did when that young guy rolled those 18 yos -- he would have stood there and said to himself, "he ain't throwing another one." Only a "crazy crapper" would have been throwing money on the 11.

Hindsight is 20/20 isn't it. Now stop trolling me.

[Alan Mendelson]

I certainly would have a stop loss so I would never be down 1000 dollars flipping coins.

By that logic a whale could get a casino to shut down if they hit the casino's stop loss. Yet the casinos plod on, taking on all takers despite the occasional hiccup; i.e. they don't have a stop loss.

Casinos don't have a stop loss... except the ones that go bankrupt. Yes, even casinos lose. There's one facing bankruptcy now on Sahara just west of the Strip. They used their stop loss and closed last week... or did you forget?

[monet]

The first $100K royal I hit with only $2,000 in the machine and prior to hitting the $100K I hit several quads at the $5 and $25 level. I almost called it quits when I was ahead by about $5,000 but I used a rising stop loss (Google it).

The second $100K royal I hit with $2500 of free play money -- not a dime of my own.

The Sam's Town Royal came after I hit the ALL at craps betting the maximum there which was $25 on the small and tall, and $10 on the all. Then I had only $200 in the $5 8/5 Bonus Progressive and started hitting and got the royal with only a few minutes of play. And then I went home.

I am certainly not trying to troll you. I was only trying to make a point of why players don't stop playing when they have a clear advantage no matter if they are up or down.

I don't understand though you are playing 125 dollars per hand on Video Poker and you had 2000 dollars in the machine. You do realize how difficult it is to hit a Royal let alone playing 125 dollars per hand in VP. Even if your playing some amazing single line Royal Progressive that gives you a Royal every 30,000 hands you still have to put in about 30 hours of play to cycle that out if you hit one in the first cycle. You have no problem hitting the button playing 125 dollars per hand on a game that is worse than a 50/50 chance to get your money back but flipping coins is not in your wheelhouse?

This 2000 dollars was cash right? The Free Play is cash isn't it... I mean it might not be dollar for dollar but it certainly does translate into cash? I mean it is completely different compared to free bets in the pit that have to be played and are taken away when you win or lose your bet. Those chips are not even close to the same value as Machine Free Play.

I could go on but I see the war is over and I have lost... I'll leave you alone and stop trolling you and I apologize if you felt that I was trolling you. I have to get back to painting anyway. I honestly have weeks of work left and after the house is done I have to paint the garage floor and drive way and front door walkway/stairs.

Edit: For the Record Advantage Players do not play Craps or at least the ones I know never play it unless they are cheating in some way or another to get the edge.

[kewlJ]

Since I have your attention, why don't you explain....

You think you have my attention? You are mistaken sir. Do not confuse that I may respond with a sarcastic reply to you, to that I am interested in "explaining" anything to you. That ship has sailed.

And besides, the things you are asking, you have asked before, about a dozen times and I have answered a dozen times. You refuse to accept my answer and then come back with the same question a short time later. Same exact game you played with "tracking a second table" for over 4 months. I am just no longer playing your games. If you sincerely want an answer to this question, go back and read. I have already answered it....many times.

I have trained 3 people to play blackjack 'my way'. 2 of those went very well. Smart people, who picked it up well. The third, not so well. He was kind of dense. Had trouble grasping some of the simple concepts. I blamed myself because communicating my thoughts just as I want is not a strong suit of mine. So I kept trying. When he wouldn't understand a concept, I would circle around and come at it from a different angle.

In the end, he only played blackjack for 3 months. 3 pretty good months for him, I think he made 17 grand. And then he took that money and went back to his poker tables where he eventually lost it. See the problem wasn't me, it was him. He really wasn't interested in learning what I was trying to teach him.

And that's where I am with you. I have tried to explain things and when you don't get it, I try to come at it from a different angle. But in the end it's the same story. YOU aren't interested in learning anything. In YOUR case your mind is made up, and you are just playing games. You actually refuse to understand. I am just not going to play your games and put myself through that anymore. Play your games, but deal me out.

[LarryS]

Again, we are not robots.....sometimes we all do things that we normally dont do...for go or bad. You weigh the risk and reward and proceed.

I dont go on cruises..........ok even if someone raves and raves..I am not throwing down 5k to go on that cruise. The riskis large

I dont bet center of table bets......if someone throws 4-5 yos in a row....I am in on the bet. its human nature...And if i hold out....and the guy rolls 4 more.....I am definately in. The risk/ rewardis tiny.

Life is filled with risk/reward decisions we make all the time. A robot can say "i was not programmed to behave that way"....but humans are not.

If you want us to believe that a human acted like a robot.....then were are in fairytale land

and the human acted like a robot while a one in 100 billion event was taking place.........baaahhaaaahhaaaa

[Alan Mendelson]

I think I wasn't clear. I started with $2,000 in the machine but it was a machine with denominations of $5, $10 and $25, As I won I switched from $5 to $25. And then I hit a few quads at $25.

Someone can dig out my original report on this.

After I hit a couple of quads at $25, I moved back to $5 where I hit a straight flush ($1250). Had I hit that SF at $25 I would have called it quits, but since it was at $5 I kept playing. I lost a substantial amount of money at $5 following the SF, and then decided to try $25 again and caught another quad and then a royal.

That was the first time.

The second time, with the $2500 of free play, I just put the $2500 of free play in the machine and started at $25/coin. I was hitting right away and hit the royal in short order. Sometimes you get lucky. My own money for the trip was still in my pocket. I took a flyer on the free play.

[tableplay]

I certainly would have a stop loss so I would never be down 1000 dollars flipping coins.

By that logic a whale could get a casino to shut down if they hit the casino's stop loss. Yet the casinos plod on, taking on all takers despite the occasional hiccup; i.e. they don't have a stop loss.

Casinos don't have a stop loss... except the ones that go bankrupt. Yes, even casinos lose. There's one facing bankruptcy now on Sahara just west of the Strip. They used their stop loss and closed last week... or did you forget?

Of course the casinos can go bankrupt. But the closures you are referring to are made via quarterly earnings decisions, not by some hard stop loss because a whale hit some daily threshold.

[Alan Mendelson]

I think I wasn't clear. I started with $2,000 in the machine but it was a machine with denominations of $5, $10 and $25, As I won I switched from $5 to $25. And then I hit a few quads at $25.

Someone can dig out my original report on this.

After I hit a couple of quads at $25, I moved back to $5 where I hit a straight flush ($1250). Had I hit that SF at $25 I would have called it quits, but since it was at $5 I kept playing. I lost a substantial amount of money at $5 following the SF, and then decided to try $25 again and caught another quad and then a royal.

That was the first time.

The second time, with the $2500 of free play, I just put the $2500 of free play in the machine and started at $25/coin. I was hitting right away and hit the royal in short order. Sometimes you get lucky. My own money for the trip was still in my pocket. I took a flyer on the free play.

[Alan Mendelson]

By that logic a whale could get a casino to shut down if they hit the casino's stop loss. Yet the casinos plod on, taking on all takers despite the occasional hiccup; i.e. they don't have a stop loss.

Casinos don't have a stop loss... except the ones that go bankrupt. Yes, even casinos lose. There's one facing bankruptcy now on Sahara just west of the Strip. They used their stop loss and closed last week... or did you forget?

Of course the casinos can go bankrupt. But the closures you are referring to are made via quarterly earnings decisions, not by some hard stop loss because a whale hit some daily threshold.

the point is this: if casinos can go bankrupt what chance do I have?

Sorry, I don't play for the long term. I can't afford to. When you are playing theoretical games you can play for as long as you like. When you are playing with real money you have to think about what you're doing. You guys must all be very rich.

[Alan Mendelson]

kewlj has now made it clear to me: he has his own definition for "EV" and EV also applies to bets that have lost and to money that has been lost. And you wonder why I kept asking kewlj questions?

I've read what EV is and no where -- absolutely no where -- is EV defined the way kewlj plays it or values it.

Frankly kewlj had you simply said you had your own definition or used the phrase to cover your own strategy I would have said "ok" and that would have been the end of it. But no, you couldn't do that. You just had to insult me.

Okay, now I know. You have your own definition of EV. And in your case EV also applies to money you have lost. That's your system, I'm at peace with it.

[tableplay]

if casinos can go bankrupt what chance do I have?
.

You have a great chance. You just need to make sure your bets are small enough to manage your risk of ruin on a positive expectation game. Here is an example:
1. You allocate a bank roll of $12,375.
2. You go to Fiesta in Henderson, bringing a grand of your $12,375 bank roll with you.
3. Inserting your players club card, you play for an hour on full pay deuces wild (assumes you don't make any discarding mistakes where FPDW has a very easy discarding strategy) at the 5 x $.25 level and then go home.
4. Rinse and repeat the next day

As you can see from the screenshot, you have a 99.98% chance of hitting a royal before losing your $12,375 bank roll and a 99.98% chance of turning $12,375 into $12500. Obviously APs like Monet and MaxPen use much larger denominations and find VP/slots and other machine games with higher player edges than .76% but this example provides you with the general template for winning AP machine play - i.e. calculating your ROR and flat-betting an appropriately small percentage of your bank roll to ensure victory.

[Alan Mendelson]

Edit: For the Record Advantage Players do not play Craps or at least the ones I know never play it unless they are cheating in some way or another to get the edge.

Exactly, yet the APs on this forum and on the WOV forum expected me to be betting on the yo? They won't even play craps.