The Thread Without Argentino

[coach belly]

Can "a" player win in the long term at negative expectation vp? Probably

So your answer is "yes"...a player can win in the long term at negative expectation VP.

Is that correct...that your answer is yes?

Your question is exactly the same as, "Can a burst of solar radiation cause a mutation in me that allows me to grow seventy feet tall and read minds?" The answer is yes. "Can a meatball fall from an Italian restaurant patio in Venice, be carried by a small dog to the docks, and make it to the United States, where it poisons the governor of New York's cat?" The answer, again, is yes.

No...of course the questions are not exactly the same.

When discussing negative expectation VP, you've agreed that a player can win in the long-term.

How about the short-term, can a player win in the short-term?

[redietz]

You have as much chance of winning long term at negative expectation video poker as I do of being struck by solar radiation and transforming into one of the Fantastic Four. The answers to the questions are the same.

So I'm glad we're in agreement that I can become one of the Fantastic Four.

Coach, you don't mind my quoting you that I can become a member of the Fantastic Four, right? You can pick which member. I'm flexible -- LOL. I guess that's a Reed Richards pun.

[coach belly]

You have as much chance of winning long term at negative expectation video poker as I do of being struck by solar radiation and transforming into one of the Fantastic Four. The answers to the questions are the same.

I can't comment on the Fantastic Four.

You've stipulated that a player can win in the long term.

Can a player ever reach the long term?

Can a player win in the short term?

[redietz]

You have as much chance of winning long term at negative expectation video poker as I do of being struck by solar radiation and transforming into one of the Fantastic Four. The answers to the questions are the same.

I can't comment on the Fantastic Four.

You've stipulated that a player can win in the long term.

Can a player ever reach the long term?

Can a player win in the short term?

I've stipulated that a player has as much chance of winning in the long term as I do of becoming a member of the Fantastic Four. I can get into this -- asking "Can this happen?" regarding all kinds of questions wherein there is no provable 0.0% likelihood.

For example -- I'm thinking of asking, "Can a spaceship full of Siamese twins who all look like Raquel Welch land tomorrow?" Certainly the answer is not 0.0. So let's go with it. Coach and I are stipulating, since the probability is not a provable 0.0%, that a spaceship full of Siamese Raquel Welch twins can land tomorrow.

What's next? "Can the US government grow a James Garner clone and reboot The Rockford Files?" Clearly, the probability of this is not 0.0% It can be done. And, knowing the US Government (there are many Rockford fans in the military), this may have a better shot than winning at negative video poker lifetime.

I stipulate that one can win at negative video poker lifetime with the same confidence that one can stand outside tomorrow and wait for a spaceship with the Raquel lookalikes.

"Can this happen?" is a great question. Whenever it's asked, however, I will start with "Sure, and I can be a member of the Fantastic Four tomorrow." It's all good to know and absolutely relevant to real world gambling. Just ask coach.

[jbjb]

A better question is, can someone "make a living playing negative EV casinos games for the rest of their lives?" The answer is a resounding NO!

[Rob.Singer]

Coach I'll save you the time talking to these idiots who obviously have no higher education. And I believe you agree--redietz is just plain weird.

Neither of them knows anything about whether a person playing -EV games can win over a period of time. Why? Because neither of them has any experience in it. I do. They have nothing more than not being able to comprehend the play method.....along with theory. And redietz is a proven liar as we all know, and both of them are anonymous. That says it all.

[redietz]

When you take these angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin questions and translate the odds into real life, the improbability of what you're being asked to swallow takes shape. So winning at negative expectation video poker over the course of a lifetime -- can a person do it? Sure, the odds may be a couple million to one against, but that's "not impossible," right?

There have been about 100,000 people who fell 10,000 feet or more in airline crashes since 1940. Fifty-something have survived.

Your plane comes apart at 30,000 feet, you plummet to earth and survive. Then you decide, after recovering from your injuries, you'll fly home, and the plane you take home also comes apart at 30,000 feet, and you fall and survive again -- those are what a couple million to one odds look like when applied to real life.

The "Can this happen?" questions serve no real use. It's impossible to prove I cannot become a member of the Fantastic Four, and it's impossible to prove someone cannot survive back-to-back planes coming apart at 30,000 feet. But of what use is asking, "Can a person survive back-to-back planes coming apart at 30,000 feet?" What good does that question serve?

[blackhole]

deleted

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz you are a troll.

Yes, there was a year I was positive for video poker but the profit was small and did not offset the losses for craps, live poker including tournaments and other legal recreational gambling.

[Alan Mendelson]

A better question is, can someone "make a living playing negative EV casinos games for the rest of their lives?" The answer is a resounding NO!

An even better question is would society and these gamblers be better off if professional gamblers had other jobs?

[coach belly]

So winning at negative expectation video poker over the course of a lifetime -- can a person do it? Sure, the odds may be a couple million to one against, but that's "not impossible," right?

I'm ahead about $5100 lifetime.

What VP games did you play?

[kewlJ]

Redietz you are a troll.

Alan, you have some F***ing nerve! Your buddy Singer is not only the biggest troll and nastiest person by far on this site, but he is the biggest troll I have encountered on the entire internet. And you embrace him. You have enabled him for years. And THAT is the reason this site is so fucked up and has no chance to be anything but a laughing stock.

And you Alan are the most dishonest person I have encountered because you support and have enabled this clown and then play that dishonest, all innocent game of "Oh I don't know what you are talking about". You are a shyster, a scammer and a sleazeball Alan. A very dishonest person through to your core. I suspected that the moment I heard about your infomercial "career", but you have proven it over and over. You are a sleazy man. No wonder you have connected with the likes of Harry Argentino.

An even better question is would society and these gamblers be better off if professional gamblers had other jobs?

And THIS tells everything anyone needs to know. Alan, Singer and their little ban of followers are anti-AP. To the point they have a very unhealthy hatred, based on jealousy.

How many times have I mentioned Alan's anti-AP bias and hatred, only to have Alan, protest no such thing. This statement unveils Alan's real feelings and agenda. These guys have such hatred and bitterness, they just are unable to contain and mask it....try as they might.

Having such hatred based on jealousy is the act of such a very small insecure person. All this lying dishonesty, manipulating the act of real sleazeball people. And that is what we have here. A group of sleazeball, bitter little "haters", lead by Alan and this Singer clown.

Good job Dan Druff. Your site is right back to where it was, a shit hole with people talking earth is flat type of complete nonsense, couple with Nazi style hatred for those who dare tell them that the earth is not flat. Dan, you have become the exact same enabler that Alan has been for years.

Dan Druff: you are a successful poker player, so you know the math. Why do you allow these clowns to just talk complete nonsense like this. You are supposed to be the voice of reason. Not being so, enables these nut jobs. It empowers them, while making your site look ridiculous, like some sort of looney conspiracy site.

[mickeycrimm]

The question of "is it possible?" also applies to the 5th card flip. According to Professor Robert Harry Argentino, any time you hold a four flush, an open end straight, or two pair, the 5th card that you throwaway will come back at the same rank an inordinate amount of times as what the math says it will. There would be only 3 out of 47 cards that would be the same rank so the math says about 6% of the time.

But, Professor Argentino reported to Alan Mendelson, in his video interview with Mr. Mendelson, that, based on actual events, it actually occurs 18% of the time. This is a statistical anomaly that Professor Argentino has found.

However, in his interview with Michael Shackleford, the Wizard of Odds, Professor Argentino reported that in the 5th card flip the probability, based on actual events, of the 5th card coming back the same rank, was 47%.

So this brings up some questions of the probability of events:

1. Was Professor Argentino lying when he told Mendelson it was 18%?

2. Was Professor Argentino lying when he told Shackleford it was 47%?

Based on the laws of probability, if your answer to the above two questions is YES, then you aced the test.

[coach belly]

And I believe you agree--redietz is just plain weird.

I agree...the ditz is a strange bird.

I'm interested to know, can a player really reach the long term?

How many hands is that, anyway?

Is there no player ahead over their lifetime playing negative expectation VP?

I can imagine a low denom player, losing at close to expectation over their lifetime,
except for the once or twice when they took a shot at the $25 machine,
and hit royals with relatively little play at that level.

They could return to the lower level, and remain ahead until they stop playing forever.

That doesn't seem as unlikely as surviving a 30000 foot fall.

When I was discussing the possibility of a million-hand challenge,
the challenger insisted that I could not change denomination during the period.

I suspect that he considered it more likely I could end up ahead
after a million hands of -EV VP if I was able to change denomination.

[quahaug]

The bell curve is pretty far to the left but not as far as r.e. ditz claims. Someone does win powerball too. There is a real answer to the question of odds of winning on negative vp and losing on positive vp per x number of hands played. It's probably readily available online somewhere (maybe wizard of odds?).

[blackhole]

Alan, you have some F***ing nerve!

This is my point about AP’s always starting the issues here.

Alan calls Redietz a troll with good reason. 90% of the time Redietz joins in a thread is after following Alan or Rob around whatever thread their posting in and jump all over them always looking for a fight, regardless the topic. That’s a troll.

You start a post and in the first sentence tell Alan he has some fucking nerve. Then you carry on with comments like clown, dishonest, shyster, scammer, sleaze ball, insecure, manipulating, Nazi.

Do you really expect the rest of this thread to be reasonable discussion?
Based on the content of your post, have you been sleeping with Mickey?

Read this post I just made here https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post63507

[Alan Mendelson]

I'd like to know if I am now or in the future will be subsidizing or even paying in full for the health care and retirement living of today's professional gamblers? Does AP also include paying for health and retirement?

[kewlJ]

Based on the content of your post, have you been sleeping with Mickey?

No more than you've been sleeping with Singer or Alan. (You haven't been have you?) Is that why your hole is black? I just assumed blackhole was a reference to the black hole where your heart should be.

Do you really expect the rest of this thread to be reasonable discussion?

There are no reasonable discussions on this site. Because the things being discussed are not opinion. They are alternate reality or as our president says "alternate facts" (of which there are no such thing).

The basis of this Singer persons claims are 1.) that he wins playing a negative expectation game and 2.) that other people like myself that are in fact playing a positive expectation game can not win. All that is missing is that the martians killed Kennedy.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I have nothing against your AP card counting at blackjack. It was your claim about counting two tables that I took issue with but ever since you explained that the count is not necessarily accurate but is close enough for your secret sauce formula I've been satisfied.

I'm sorry for the loss of your partner and I hope your health is good.

Other than that I think you've got a toilet mouth. Or is that a toilet keyboard?

[kewlJ]

I'd like to know if I am now or in the future will be subsidizing or even paying in full for the health care and retirement living of today's professional gamblers? Does AP also include paying for health and retirement?

Is THIS the basis of your hatred Alan? I can only speak or myself and no, you are not subsidizing a damn thing for me. If anything I am subsidizing YOU, paying into social security for your retirement and that is money I am unlikely to see back. And don't even attempt to give me this shit that my money is not paying your benefits. SS is a Ponzi scheme. the money you paid in is gone, courtesy of elected officials. All that's in the SS box is an I.O.U. Your SS payments are coming from me and other 30-40 year olds paying in and we are unlikely to see a penny of that back. AND I don't HATE you for it.

But just wondering, do you have the same kind of outright hate towards the workers at dunkin donuts or the Dollar store that you may be subsidizing their healthcare and retirement? These are political issues not gambling forum issues.