Aw, guys, never sweat a dog. A good friend of mine whacked Oakland -200 yesterday. Now THAT was a sweat. Tough to win a game when your starting pitcher scores a minus 14 in fantasy leagues.
Late game:
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Angels (Tropeano) - Under 8.5 -115
3000th post!
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I almost never grab favorites -150 or worse. Too little reward and too much risk.
Also, there's not much value typically, as the public loves its big favorites, so the line tends to be shaded that way anyway.
That's not to say most dogs are good (especially recently, with all the tanking and salary dumping we're seeing), but the way to win in MLB is to bet select big dogs, small dogs, small favorites, and totals (mostly unders).
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Split 'em yesterday. Both were close. Was lucky to hold on with the Yankees game, and was unlucky to lose in the 9th with Boston, but honestly both were close the whole way, so 1-1 was an appropriate record.
Here's what I've got today:
Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin)
The main reason for both Miami picks: Trevor Richards killed it during his minor league career. However, he had never pitched above AA prior to this year. Predictably, he got hammered hard in his first 2 starts, though one was against Boston, who has a very tough lineup. Last time out, against a more moderate Pittsburgh lineup, he looked like the pitcher he was supposed to be. I think this could be the beginning of a run of value dog bets on him, at least against lineups which haven't been hot. I even grabbed him at my fantasy draft.
Scherzer/Kershaw speaks for itself, and all signs point to a real pitcher's duel, especially in Dodger Stadium on a cool night.
FYI the Dodgers under is very public, while we are very much going against the public with both Miami bets. Sharps appear to especially like the Miami +146.
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So that'a 4 consecutive unders decided by the late innings after being close the whole way -- and I'm 2-2 in those.
Record as of 4/18
SEASON TOTAL: 19-11-2, +8.163 UNITS
4/19:
Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Under 9 -113 - WON +0.885
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Angels (Tropeano) - Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/19: 1-1. -0.115
4/20:
Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117 - LOST -1
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin) - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/20: 1-2, -1.130
SEASON TOTAL: 21-14, +6.918 UNITS
Overs 0-1
Unders 14-6-2
Sides 7-7
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Not seeing anything I like today, at least not for the games starting before 3pm PT.
Check back later.
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Starting very soon (3:10 PDT):
Minnesota (K. Gibson) at Tampa (Snell) - Under 7.5 -105
More coming shortly
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Starting at 4:10pm PDT... a rare over for me.
NY Mets (Degrom) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Over 8.5 -116
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Yesterday was my first day of posting 2 or more picks in MLB and winning none.
TB under was very disappointing since it was on pace to win most of the way.
Here are today's plays:
Minnesota (Hughes) at Tampa (Chirinos) - Under 8.5 +114 (starting 10:10am PDT)
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Milwaukee (J. Guerra) - Under 9 -120 (starting 11:10am PDT)
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Here is my likely sole play of the day:
Oakland (Cahill) at Texas (Moore) - Under 10 +100
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4/21:
Minnesota (K. Gibson) at Tampa (Snell) - Under 7.5 -105 - LOST -1
NY Mets (Degrom) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Over 8.5 -116 - LOST -1
4/22:
Minnesota (Hughes) at Tampa (Chirinos) - Under 8.5 +114 - LOST -1
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Milwaukee (J. Guerra) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
TOTAL BOTH DAYS: 1-3, -2.167
SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/22: 22-17, +4.751
Overs 0-2
Unders 15-8-2
Sides 7-7
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What a horrendous beat on the Oakland game yesterday. 3-3 going to the 9th, and Oakland hits a HR to lead off (fine), then two outs later, 5 more runs come home after a barrage of hits.
Under 10 was almost a lock when the game entered the 9th 3-3. Third time this year I've been screwed in the 9th in an under pick when a win was almost sure, the other two being a tie involving the Yankees (6-0 entering bottom of the 9th, under 9), a loss with a 2-1 game in the bottom of the 9th with under 7.5 (that one was the worst), and this one 3-3 entering the 9th with under 10.
Moving forward, today's sole play will be an underdog:
Mets (Wheeler) +170 at St. Louis (Weaver)
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I agree, other than arizona, colorado, wrigley, NYY home games.....10 is almost always a number to grab under.
That Mets win was ugly.
Aside from that Jay Bruce go-ahead HR, St. Louis pretty much handed it to New York.
In the first, a badly misplayed fly ball went for a triple, and the Mets cut their deficit to 2-1.
Mets then fell behind 4-1.
However, Matheny mismanaged Luke Weaver, who clearly suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes. After walking two batters on 4 pitches each, and then throwing 4 bad pitches to Yoenis Cespedes (who stupidly swung at one), it was a 3-1 count. Then Weaver finally fired a strike -- right down the middle, and Cespedes hammered it for a 463-foot bomb. Matheny should have taken him out as soon as he walked that second batter. on 4 pitches (none of the 8 pitches were close). Amazingly, Weaver was left in there to flail after the Cespedes HR, walked yet another batter, and was finally being removed. However, no further runs scored.
Then St. Louis got up 5-4, and New York caught them 5-5.
Then St. Louis had 1st and 2nd nobody out in the bottom of the 9th, and I was getting ready to make another post bitching about always losing in the final inning. But a strikeout and double play, and suddenly the inning was over.
The Bruce cracked that HR in the 10th, and the Cards went meekly in the bottom half of the frame. Game over. Ship +170.
Part of me felt like a fraud for winning that one. But then I reminded myself that my bet was mostly against Weaver, who gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in his last outing, and I didn't feel he deserved such a strong favorite line against a competent Mets team. I was a bit worried about Wheeler (who was indeed not very good), but +170 was just too good to pass up. So this one fell my way, after looking like it was destined to lose three different times -- when the Mets trailed 4-1, when they trailed 5-4 going to the 8th, and when the Cards had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out in the bottom of the 9th.
Record keeping:
4/23:
Oakland (Cahill) at Texas (Moore) - Under 10 +100 - LOST -1
4/24:
Mets (Wheeler) +170 at St. Louis (L. Weaver) - WON +1.700
TOTAL BOTH DAYS: 1-1, +0.700
SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/24: 23-18, +5.451
Overs 0-2
Unders 15-9-2
Sides 8-7
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First -1.5 pick of the season:
Washington (Scherzer) -1.5 +100 at San Francisco (Samardijza)
Also let's throw in a doubleheader under for good measure
*** GAME 2 ***
Detroit (Boyd) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - Under 8 -115
Might be back with more later.
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Broke even yesterday, winning Washington -1.5 and losing the under.
You guys wanna see the Trapper of all Trapper John MD lines (for a game starting in a few minutes), check out Seattle/Cleveland.
Mariners are like -109 on the road with Paxton on the mound (5.61/1.442) versus Cleveland's Clevinger (1.75/1.062).
I'm sure you can guess where all the public money is. Line started at Seattle +120 and keeps moving the opposite direction you'd expect!
I'm steering clear of this whole mess. Probably no picks today.
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One early game, starting in a bit more than an hour.
Let's bet on it (and against F Yu) twice:
Milwaukee (Suter) +154 at Cubs (Darvish)
Milwaukee/Cubs OVER 7.5 +104
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Brutal to lose that o7.5 given that it was 2-1 after 1 inning.
Then lost the moneyline by 1 run.
Ugh.
Tampa Bay (Snell) at Boston (Pomeranz) - Under 8.5 -115
Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9 -115
Both starting shortly
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Super last minute:
Braves (Teheran) +153 at Phillies (Nola)
Value bet.
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