kentucky derby

[regnis]

Even non-horseplayers usually have some interest in the Derby, so I thought I'd throw this out there. I am rarely a big fan of the Derby itself. Rather, the rest of the races over the two days (starting on Friday) offer the best value of the year along with the Breeders Cup.

The multi race bets (pick 3,4,5, or 6) and trifectas and superfectas offer huge payoffs as the handle is high and the amateurs over-bet the favorites.

Anyway, as I said, I have no love for the race itself, but I will always look for value. I think seven or eight horses have a chance. At this time, I am interested in the 5 horse, Audible, listed at 8-1. I will take no less than 6-1.

There is rain in the forecast, but I don't think it will be sloppy. I actually prefer slop as it makes breeding the foremost factor in handicapping. We will see.

[LarryS]

Thanks for the thread...

I bet the KD because ofall the races this has the most dead money. I mean the most money pouring in by people who dont know what they are doing. And since horse racing is not a bet agasint the house, but rather a bet against the other bettors.....there is alot of value if you can handicapp it right...because the dead money gets distributed to the winners.

Justify has had 3 races as a 3 year old ..thats it. Against 14 horses TOTAL/ has raced only on a single track. And I am supposed to be a backer of this? not me/ Only 1 graded race. hasnt raced as a 2 year old. Is very green....evenif he has baffert as a trainer. I am going to totally throw him out of the top 3. THere is alot of speed so his style wont be unique.

Now pletcher has 4 horses...one of them is speed...Magnum Moon ran as a speed horse in the Ark derby........he doesnt need the lead.....but will Pletcher sacrifice him in order to burn out the fave..... Its possible He would be doing everyone a favor...including his other horses.

I am betting dollar trifecta part wheels with something like 6 horses/10 horses/10 horses...thats around 432 dollars. or I may bet 6horses/12 horses/12 horses for 50 cents at 330 per ticket

Once I haver a better view of the weather i will post my picks tomorrow...then i will be away from the computer for a few days....and will check in how people here did on monday or sun night.

[regnis]

Justify is being asked to do something that hasn't been done (i think)--win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. While he has looked unbeatable, I agree with everything you have said. Plus, he won't offer any value.

I was not going to use Magnum Moon, or if I did just underneath, but he moves way up if it is sloppy.

I don't know what to do with Mendelson. His win on dirt in Dubai was impressive, but anyone that went to the lead was winning that day. I think he is caught up in the speed and not good enough to clear.

[LarryS]

As far as your pick......I read an article that eliminated horses one by one based on the history of KD winners

Such as

the past 7 derby winners entered the race off of a victory, and41 of 42 had their last prep race finishing in the top 3 or within 4 lenghts.
each of the last 6 winners and 16 of the last 20 ran the last 3/8ths of the final race in less than 38 seconds
horses exiting the UAE derby are 0-13
no blue grass stakes winner has won the derby since 1991. the last horse to compete in the Blue ggrass and win was 2007
over the last 26 years since beyers were used....no winner had a beyer under 95 in its past

well when all was said and done...after eliminating Justufy for not racing as a 2 year old......and a few other horses for not winning as a 2 year old.... plus all the eliminations above ad others i didnt mention

2 horses remained

Audible and Bolt D'oro

those are 2 of the 6 I originally have in my analysis..so I dont need to be convinced.

the sire of "Bolt" helped to make me 10k in a Belmont over 15 years ago........when War Emblam stumbled and Sarava a 70-1 headlined the trifect with magdalia d'oro underneath. I am using that horse because of the past, I am iffy about coming in first. but I need to include it for old time sake.

[LarryS]

Justify is being asked to do something that hasn't been done (i think)--win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. While he has looked unbeatable, I agree with everything you have said. Plus, he won't offer any value.

I was not going to use Magnum Moon, or if I did just underneath, but he moves way up if it is sloppy.

I don't know what to do with Mendelson. His win on dirt in Dubai was impressive, but anyone that went to the lead was winning that day. I think he is caught up in the speed and not good enough to clear.

In a race like this I think one has to make an educated guess on how it will unfold. wILL the speed die or will it prevail. And then you can make an educated guess on a winner, I do know that deep closers dont do well in the KD...although it looks good on paper.

In the end something that you doont really factor in on most other races.....the KD can be a crap shoot like a dog race. If you ever watched one, you can handicapp all day..but when the race starts and the dogs hit the first turn, usually 2-3 dogs get wiped out as the run into eachother. Well when a 1000 lb animal bumps into another 1000 lb animal...it effects the chances of winning or even showing alot. And in the derby there are always 3 or so horses that get significantly bumped.
Its tough to have your analysis get shot to hell over a bump just past the gate.

Mendelson is a tough horse to use based on the past performance of UAE racers. I mean one year its going to happen. But the horse flew in on monday, and was quarunteened for 2 days as is normal practice, and then arrive at churchill yesterday.I think. He has won on multiple tracks which is a positive. His time earned a beyer of 106. But I think speed with not prevail. but that is a total guess. With all the speed available....someone has to press the pace and speed things up...at least I hope so

[regnis]

War Emblem and Sarava both now living at Old Friends in Lexington, Kentucky. If you are not aware of it, it is a 501 (c) (3) retirement home for old race horses. I visit twice a year during the Keeneland meet and am a large contributor.

If you are sentimental in that way you can visit and thank Sarava in person. Interestingly, Sarava is a nice horse but may bite you; War Emblem has to be isolated and will rip your head off.

I'm hesitant on Bolt because of the distance. he looks like he hangs a little.

[regnis]

My concern with Churchill Downs is that they often roll the track for the derby and breeders Cup leaving a speed oriented track on which nothing can close. They make it rock hard and fast as if fast times will impress new fans. They don't do it every year, but too many years to be comfortable that they won't. santa Anita has been known to do it too. That's why when I used to play Hawthorne every day I would call the track superintendent every morning and find out what they had done and what the depths were that day. A bottle of scotch can get you a lot of info. Would also throw him a few bucks by betting for him.

[Half Smoke]

I'm not going to weigh in with a pick except to say that when Futures Pool #1 opened in November or October closing on 11/26 the Field was a great pick paying win or lose paying 6/5.
There is always a lot of hype over certain 2 year olds and bettors are falling for it.
I went back over it and 13 of the 20 entries are not listed including Justify and Audible meaning if any of those 13 win the bet is a winner.
This year might be better than most but I would still venture to say that the field pick in the first pool in November is ALWAYS an excellent bet. Definitely an advantage play.
In November or October when the pool opens they are only 2 year olds and subject to another grueling 5 months of training and racing which will always mean injuries and dramatic improvement for some.
In November, nobody can say with confidence who the contenders will be.
I didn't get on this bet this year or in any previous year which qualifies me to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
But I will 100% for sure get all over this bet next year.





https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...Odds-Pool1.pdf

[regnis]

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

[Half Smoke]

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

If you don't mind my asking I would like to see how, after the race, you could dutch Justify, who is the morning line favorite at 3/1, Audible at 8/1 and 11 other horses some of whom are not extreme longshots and get better than 6/5.

I'm always willing to learn.

[regnis]

So far track is very fast. 121 and change for 7 furlongs just now.

[regnis]

Not my style as the field is always too low. If the field is 6-5, you are better off dutching a bunch of horses on derby day at much higher odds in my opinion.

If you don't mind my asking I would like to see how, after the race, you could dutch Justify, who is the morning line favorite at 3/1, Audible at 8/1 and 11 other horses some of whom are not extreme longshots and get better than 6/5.

I'm always willing to learn.

I would never suggest dutching that many. But if you have 4 or 5 you can easily do it. I don’t have it on me but if you google it you can get the dutching chart.

I don’t Dutch and rarely hedge, so it ain’t for me. I was just saying it’s a way to get better than 6-5.

[LarryS]

It looks like rain all day on saturdat, which wont reall change my top 6

5.6.9.11.14.18........the remaing 4 horses for the 2nd and third..i am still figuring out but 1 and 4 might sneak into 3rd in the mud. I would probably go wtih 4 because the 1 spot is a real bitch. Under neath among others I like are 10,,12

I have no idea how some of these horses will react to getting mud kicked up in their face.....and maybe now the front runners may have an advantage in that respect.

i hesitate with magnum moon because i feel there may be a chance pletcher uses him to fry Justify. Not sure..but it could happen. I want a speed duel....but may not get it. Its totally a guess. Maybe 3 or 4 might challenge justify as well. and they are on the inside of justify...

[regnis]

My people down there say not that much rain, if any. Scattered and shouldn't make the track sloppy. We shall see.

Today was definitely a speed bias. Nothing could really close and speed held on when it shouldn't. I was up and down with wild swings ending with a very moderate win due to the Oaks.

In the Oaks-Forrester-Derby Pick 3 I used 5 and 6 big in the Derby. Also have 7,9,14 a little, and all a couple times. Based upon the track bias today, Justify scares me a little but I still like Audible.

[Keystone]

Will be interesting to see the track condition by the time of the race....Gonna use 4 on top in a series of tri`s and P4 and P5`s- Justify, Noble Indy, Audible, and still deciding between Good Magic and My Boy Jack....am tossing the Dubai horse Mendelssohn....no truth to the rumor he has grey hair and loves talking about himself.....Good Luck

[regnis]

Well—it’s sloppy. So much for my sources down there. Could dry up by derby if rain stops

[regnis]

Among other bets, my primary will be trifecta:

5-67-all
5-all-6,10
All-5-6,10,16
5 over a bunch

[LarryS]

I bet 270 dollars on a 50 cent trip part wheel. And included number 7 when I saw the track..

Got back just under 71 dollars. What a "win"

[regnis]

The $71 didn't do me much good either. All day I was inside out and first and third like in the derby. Had a small amount on the right way tri but way too much the way I described above.

I didn't realize but on the derby recap show they said the favorite has now won 6 straight years.

[LarryS]

I read something a few years ago, ans I dont know if you agree, but it makes sense.

It was said that since the point system came into play, there is more of an honest race.
Before the point system, some rich owner who wanted to have his sprinter horse who only had experience running 7f could get him in. And one or 2 horses like that can do nothing other than set an unrealistic pace and then die out. Horses that needed to or wanted to stay near the lead were hung out to dry...leavng it open for some midpack lesser known horses to have a chance.

Now with a more honest race....a talented front runner with good post positio has a real advantage. He can set a realistic pace., and there are 19 horses behind that have to navigate the post position, and then navigate passing more horses than they ever had beeen used to....what would have been 2-3 wide in a 10 horse race, they are now going 5-6 wide. Combine that with a bunch of horses that have to go both forward and "over" from post positons line 12-20...that takes time.....and how do you make up that time agasint a horse that is in the lead from the beginning. Its easy after losing time when the gate opend going right to left toward the rail...you can now lose time by being 3-4-5-6 horses wide in the far turn. It really . has to be a monster horse to overcome those precious lost seconds.Not to mention the bumping that goes on that the front runner doesnt feel. A fave speed horse has a real advantage in a 20 horse race. And with the point system, the chance of having to initially ho agasint a sprint horse is gone.