Originally Posted by
LarryS
The machines, the roulette wheels, the dice, the BJ cards do not know the difference between night and day, or numbers on a calendar.....its all about numbers......numbers of coin flips, numbers of wheel spins, numbers of dice tosses, numbers of "Hands"..........it never has anything to do with the month or year(unless you only play a few hands and never play again). Once you get into the multi hundreds of thousands of spins, rolls, hands......then you are in the long run....and declaring that you are not in the long run is the line a con man uses to con the ignorant. Unfortunately the ignorant are not populating this board so you don't get alot of positive feedback. But its not to say there isn't some ignorant folks lurking. you might still have a few customers available.
Actually the blackjack cards "do know the difference between night and day", as you term it LarryS. What makes blackjack different from the others games mentioned is that the cards do have a memory (so to speak). Unlike the other games mentioned each round of blackjack is NOT independent of the other rounds that came before it, or will come after. Instead the results of the current round and future rounds are influenced if not determined by the earlier rounds and the cards that have been taken out of play in those earlier rounds. That is the basis of card counting. Easiest (and extreme) example is single deck. A couple players and dealer. First round, one player is dealt A,6, second player A,A and the dealer has a blackjack. Good luck getting dealt a blackjack in future rounds with no aces remaining.
However blackjack aside, the rest of your post is spot on, not that it will make a difference. Singer will spin it to support his conman ideas.
Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
You've seen that idiot kew claim how EV trumps actual results because, well, he Loses! And yes, dummies like him want everyone to think that they'll "win it all back and more" because of a few theoretical percentage points. But they never will come out and actually say that, simply because they know they'll sound like they're "due" or they "feel a hot streak is coming".
I never said "I was due" or "a hot streak was coming". What I said was over the long run, many, many trial, results and expectation will come together. That is not theory it is fact. The Law of Large Numbers.
While still a relatively small sample size, my numbers for this partial year (2018) bear this out. Despite that day (an $8000 loss IIRC) that you, Alan and the rest of people that don't have a clue like to continue to crow about, I am right where I should be for the year, almost exactly (just a hair below) expectation at with an actual BJ win for the year of 24,637.50, vs expectation (accumulated EV) of $25,365. That day frequently mentioned by those who simply don't understand has absolutely no significant meaning what-so-ever, other than the EV (expected value) that was generated. That continues to be my most productive day of the year.
Here is another one that you, Alan and the rest of the 'clueless club' can add to your arsenal. The month of April. Actual win of over $8200 for me, but EV generated was only $1500 because I played very sparingly due to my partners passing and extended trip back east. $8200 win means nothing. At the end of the year or whatever long-term measure one uses, what matters will be the EV generated and that makes April and the $1500 EV generated my worse month of the year by far for me (in more ways that one
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