Once again, kewlj, I'm waiting for your explanation. You lost $8500. How do you come out ahead even playing at a +EV game?? Answer the question. Answer in plain English and I'll go away.
Once again, kewlj, I'm waiting for your explanation. You lost $8500. How do you come out ahead even playing at a +EV game?? Answer the question. Answer in plain English and I'll go away.
I guess the math don't matter. :-/
Show the math. Include the $8500 loss. Ready? Go.Originally Posted by Prozema
The point is IT HAS NEVER BEEN EXPLAINED. NEVER. I WANT TO SEE IT. I HAVE SEEN COMMENTS ABOUT HATE, COMMENTS ABOUT HITLER, NAZIS, BEING A SHYSTER, BUT KEWLJ HAS NEVER EXPLAINED HOW HE COMES OUT AHEAD AFTER AN $8500 LOSS.
Good way to get your point across, you don't need to insult someone just because you don't understand EV and variance.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Hit a $100k RF and still be down for the year? Uhh,,,yeah, I'm not taking any advice from that guy. lolol
Hi Alan. Thanks for writing in all caps. I think I covered this in post 2419 in this thread. Let me know if you have additional questions.Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonShow the math. Include the $8500 loss. Ready? Go.Originally Posted by Prozema
The point is IT HAS NEVER BEEN EXPLAINED. NEVER. I WANT TO SEE IT. I HAVE SEEN COMMENTS ABOUT HATE, COMMENTS ABOUT HITLER, NAZIS, BEING A SHYSTER, BUT KEWLJ HAS NEVER EXPLAINED HOW HE COMES OUT AHEAD AFTER AN $8500 LOSS.
This is an interesting debate about which I know pretty much nothing. I have a kind of formula for determining whether a college football game "should" have won or not, but I don't take it very seriously unless I've won a bunch of games I should have, according to the formula, lost. Then I take myself to task for being "wrong," although I won the games, and figure out what the problems were with my analyses.
I remember one year, early on, when I had a phenomenal 80-35 ATS record in college football, but my record should have been more like 70-45 or 69-46. I was cognizant I'd been dodging rain drops for a full season.
When people win playing negative EV video poker over a long stretch, they are essentially also dodging raindrops. When people lose playing positive EV games, they're getting wet even using an umbrella.
I never used my "shoulda won/shoulda lost" games as a kind of parallel tally, mainly because it's not exact math (or science). Basically, in college football, the team that "deserves" to cover does so about 70-72% of the time, depending on the season. The team that "deserves" to lose covers 28-30% of the time. I don't use the parallel-to-actual-results tally like a positive EV calendar, but it's an interesting concept. It keeps one from overreacting to short-term results, I would think.
If I were you Alan, I would argue that my model in post 2419 doesn't take bet spreading into account... Because it doesn't. I could make a model like that but if you don't understand post 2419, you will not understand a more complex model.
Originally Posted by RS__Good way to get your point across, you don't need to insult someone just because you don't understand EV and variance.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Hit a $100k RF and still be down for the year? Uhh,,,yeah, I'm not taking any advice from that guy. lolol
By sheer serendipity, I was just informed by a young independent filmmaker that my 30 seconds in his film playing "Saul the Jew" is official, and I need to sign a release form. The movie sets a record for political incorrectness, and I am proud to be party to that.
It has Been explained over and over and over. You just won't listen. I am not a math guy so I can't post the formula....that's not what I do. Talk to your buddy Wizard or one of the many other math geeks.Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonShow the math. Include the $8500 loss. Ready? Go.Originally Posted by Prozema
The simplest way I can explain it is....if you have a +EV game, with enough trials your results will be the total action X advantage. And that will overcome any short-term negative variation that you might acure along the way.
This is exactly why I am currently ahead 41 grand for the year DESPITE that completely meaningless one day loss.
Now go ahead...play dumb and manipulate what I just said.
Did I do it?
Is AM vanquished with a simple highschool level distribution curve?
I'm the man!
No you didn't. Mendelson is just like a bunch of cockroach. He won't go away. You think you got rid of them, but they just keep coming. Alan will return playing dumb.Originally Posted by Prozema
Bravo kewlj. You wrote: "The simplest way I can explain it is....if you have a +EV game, with enough trials your results will be the total action X advantage. And that will overcome any short-term negative variation that you might acure along the way."
Now that we are having a decent discussion, a question: how do you determine that you have a +EV game? and what is your positive expectation. Is it, for example, one-half of one percent, or one-tenth of one percent?
But you still haven't explained your original statement: you lost $8500 and you claimed (at the time) it was your best day. How do you call a real loss of $8500 your best day? This is the question that needs an explanation. That you have a profit over time is not the issue.
RS__ how about the year I hit two $100K royals. Why would I post on a public forum that I had a profit from gambling? Is posting that you have a profit an advantage play?
LOL
OMG... I give up. I don't know how to help someone that's not trying to understand.
Last edited by Prozema; 06-05-2018 at 02:20 PM.
Welcome to the club, Prozema.Originally Posted by Prozema
If I have the etiquette right for this board, I'm now supposed to say something bad about his mother?Originally Posted by kewlJWelcome to the club, Prozema.Originally Posted by Prozema
He got some losing out of the way. Does anybody have the ability to show a graph. Just an illustration of the Dow over the last 25 years will illustrate the gambling graph. They both go up and down in short spurts but on an incline up overall.
Take off that stupid mask you big baby.
I know nothing about this, but I'll take a stab.
Mr. Mendelson, say you are playing hold 'em, and five times in a particular day, you trap some poor boobs one-on-one into going for flushes on the river while you have them beaten if they don't catch. You lose every single time. When the day is finished, you've gotten murdered financially, yet you did every blessed thing correctly.
Since there are formulas for determining what are the right poker plays, given that you can profile people at the table, you would have tested out as having, in terms of likely income, your best day ever. Yet you actually lost money.
Now, is it more helpful to your long term poker success to think that (A) you played your best poker ever or (B) that you played terrible and should play differently going forward? Which is the appropriate advice to yourself for future poker endeavors?
Here's the very simple facts.
Some of us understand the math, play with an advantage and are winners in the long term. And there are many, at all levels, recreational to professional, on this site and throughout the community.
And then there are some that argue what they have no clue about, play their losing EV games and lose...year after year. They are such big "losers" in every sense of the word that the casinos are willing to do stupid shit like allow them to get married at a craps table.
And then there is Welfare Rob. You will have to excuse his absence. He is currently off picking up trash on the side of the road, paying his debt to society.
Not going to work. Alan just doesn't understand, pretends not to understand, or just doesn't want to understand some very simple concepts of variance and standard deviation.Originally Posted by quahaug
Just to show what a lying narcissist KJ is......He goes to wov and elevates that site, basically complimenting them that he doesnt post here any more because its such a sewer..so he is turning to wov as the "good site" to post his life story.
And then after wov posts his me me me slice of his life over the years and years......he comes running back here.
He had to lie to the wiz and say he no longer posts here...or else the logical question would be " why dont you post on vegas casino talk. or where ever you have been posting since i kicked your ass off my site"
So he lies to the wiz, and gets his riveting life story posted....then he appears here for many posts.
what a manipulating narcissist
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