Expected Value Discussion

[kewlJ]

Kewlj its really simple and you said it yourself:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

If you hadn't made the statement connecting your best day of +EV along with your $8500 loss none of this would have happened.

You misspoke. End of discussion.

Alan, might I suggest you go back and read the thread. You are going to find that you are not remembering things they way they occurred or what was really said, just like you admitted to a few days ago.

Here is how it went down. The thread was called My start to 2018. It started out I discussed opening the year with 5 winning days. All pretty small winning days. So then I gave an update that I had a losing day. A losing day of $8500 or $8800, I forget which. The winning days and this losing day were all insignificant. It was just a fun observation. And BTW an $8500 winning or losing day is not some big deal. Both happen regularly. That is just variance. $8500 is within normal standard deviation for my level of play. Yeah, just slightly on the high end, but normal. Statistically completely normal.

So there was no mention of EV in that post.

So you responded with your complete nonsense about stop-limits, saying I should have stopped playing. Stop limits are complete voodoo concepts.

So after several days, actually almost a week of you going on idiotically about stop limits, I tried to explain to you why stop limits are nonsense. That stop limits are a product designed to manipulate short-term results, but short term results really have no significance what-so-ever. What matters is the longterm and we get there by playing and continuing to play through short-term swings.

THIS, 6-7 days later is when I mentioned EV, which is a measurement of your play....not your wins or losses (actual results). The more you play the faster you get to the long-term where these short term swings (wins/losses) have no meaning. It is at that point that the math takes over and your results will reflect expectation.

So the day in question, I kept playing. And kept accumulating EV, because that small variance (8500 loss) just didn't matter. What matters is accumulating EV. And it so happens that day was a good day accumulating EV. It so happens I had several good heads-up opportunities, which is strong positive EV. That is my goal every day. Some days I encounter good conditions and rack up strong EV and other days, I don't. That was a good day EV-wise. That's all I said.

Two separate things. I lost $8500 or $8800 or whatever it was, but had a good day EV-wise. I never said losing $8500 was good. I said I had a strong day racking up EV, despite that my actual results were a loss for the day.

So stop with all this crap. It is simply a matter of Long-term thinking vs short-term thinking. AP's deal with the long-term. If we play a +EV game, we will win in the long-term despite some short-term (day) losses. And EV is a way to measure that longterm progress. To measure just where expectation is and results will eventually match up with (longterm).

I and all AP's think longterm. YOU think short-term. I and other AP's have losing days but winning years. YOU have winning days, but losing years.

Again, I wonder who knows what the fuck they are talking about?