Expected Value Discussion

[Rob.Singer]

Obsessed redietz who can't let the chance for a dig at me or Rob Singer wrote:

"That video poker player's profile would stand out like a T. Rex in a chicken coop to casino personnel, so undoubtedly the investigative reporter would turn his full cynical eye to such a series of posts and claims."

It's been well documented that Rob was told not to play in certain casinos because of his winnings. When I did the interviews with him it was tough to find a casino that would let us do them on the casino floor, so one set of interviews were done in my room at Caesars and one set was done in the high limit area of Hard Rock.

Another strike out for redietz.

Alan, why do you have to go idiot on everything? Can't you just snap out of it? Show us this documentation of Rob being barred from any and all casinos because of his video poker play. Then your dumass tries to make it look like they won't let you film because of Rob's video poker play. STFU! I quit taking pictures of the inside of casinos and putting them up in the road pic thread because I got to many warnings about taking pictures. Wise up.

Mickey just because the facts don't fit your narrative doesn't mean you need to get all worked up again.

For the 4th time, I published my ban letter from Bellagio in GT as well as where else I was banned from in my "-EV" career. And right now I'm banned from playing at Silverton, South Point, GVR, Casino Fandango, and Eldorado. And of course, Rob Singer is the ONLY player to have provided absolute proof of being banned (not the pussified "restricted" like Dancer and other followers like to claim for perception) in the form of publication All these collection of self-proclaimed ap's ever do is make an assertion about themselves or other hot-shot "AP's" then expect the rest of the world to simply take their word for it because they say they're from that ap community--or get insulted and called names for not buying into what they're selling.

Wise up, bum.

[tableplay]

You didn't mention progressive jackpots tableplay. You made a blanket statement.

Yes, progressive jackpots over and above the casino base payoff come from the players.

Next time be clear.

But all players whether they are blackjack, craps, video poker, slots, roulette, Paigow are playing against the casino.

ok fair enough then.

[tableplay]

i didnt say card counting was against the law where there are laws on the books that can place you in jail as viewed by the eyes of the LAW. I never talked about federal or state laws. I have no idea what you are talking about. Casinos have their own rules and "laws". And their own legal system and punishment based on their in house laws.

I said that the casinos in their world view card countng cheating and stealing and take measures to eliminate it as much as they can.

Yes you did say this. They don't view it as cheating - the bans take place because they don't want consistently winning players. Of course they also don't want cheating players. But the two groups are distinct from one another and you are conflating the two.

[Rob.Singer]

There should be no question that casinos not only are able to spot even the most careful card counters easier than mickeycrimm grabs his own dick nightly----they share their info with casinos all over Nevada daily. And they permanently eject them. Don't want to believe it? Ask any casino manager, or ask to see proof. One might show it to you as they did me at the Peppermill.

Or....you could go on believing an anonymous armchair phony like kew. Notice how much time he spends posting at all "his" forums in-between him getting that clan of family paupers at his home who live similar to how the Chinese slugs do, to combine their ssdi & ebt cards so HE can pretend what a big shot/casino system evading armchair gambler he is. His fuel? Idiots like BBB want to believe his baloney.

[kewlJ]

him getting that clan of family paupers at his home who live similar to how the Chinese slugs do, to combine their ssdi & ebt cards

Really, YOU are going to go there? I live in a 4 bedroom home in Summerlin. Besides myself there is one other person, my brother residing here. No one is on ssdi or ebt. I was last on ebt 17 years ago, for a total of 3 months while I was homeless and finishing high school.

Now you sir, live in a RV, in the driveway of your children, mooching electricity and internet service. And when one child gets fed up with you in Phoenix, you make the rounds to other children in North Dakota or Minnesota or somewhere and then start the cycle all over again.

You are cousin Eddie...except you are an uglier cousin Eddie. You make cousin Eddie look handsome and intelligent.

[redietz]

Can anyone think of any reasons (other than winning, of course) that someone would be trespassed? If you can think of other reasons, and those reasons are more likely than winning at a negative expectation game, then you have an Occam's Razor debate as to the likeliest causes of trespass.

In any event, getting trespassed isn't really a good thing. Yeah, if I get severe limits put on me, it's a fun story to boost my ego 10 years after the fact, but in the moment, it's a pain in the ass and a problem to be solved. Most offshores won't "shut you down," so to speak, because they don't want to go on record as banning a player. What they'll do is simply reduce your limits. I had done well at futures one place, and the coup de grace came when they allowed me to bet something like $1.74 on Sergio Garcia to win a golf tournament. Maybe it was $1.34. Anyway, it's a comical story 10 years later. It was not funny or a badge of honor at the time.

Bragging about getting trespassed is like bragging about the $500 ticket you just got for speeding. Yeah, you must have a fast car, but you might want to learn where and when to drive it that way.

[AxelWolf]

Mickeycrimm I've been banned from throwing dice at MGM and NYNY. It only took one session for the pit to nab me. And kewlj has escaped detection for how long?

I admit you guys really do stick together, even on a sinking ship..

I asked KJ how he avoided losing most of his stores over so many years as well.

No matter how careful/good one is, there are always unexpected events beyond your control. Unexpected pit change, former pit boss who is now a dealer, policy changes, mistaken identity, someone is having a bad day and they want to take it out on someone. A local gets pissed off because you hit or stood on something they didn't agree with, so they complain and turn you in, A dealer catches on and doesn't like his tips. I could go on and on.

I know many former card counter who had similar approaches to CC at even lower levels that would get pegged at some location every 2 or 3 months it seemed.

Perhaps JK is on the good side of variance as far as the unexpected things that can happen too CC's. Perhaps he's running bad in other aspects of life.

If you can believe you witnessed 18 yo's a row certainly you can believe that JK's skill with a good deal of luck has contributed to him still having enough stores left. It's not like he's never been detected and caught heat.

[regnis]

I was not allowed to throw at Bellagio, which was fine with me as it is too rich for my blood there. One day I was at an event and a bunch of us were playing craps at Luxor. I didn't present a card and bought in for only $500. My usual buy-in is $2500 or $5000. I was the first shooter. After a couple throws they started asking for my name or a card. I waived them off. Then the pit was on the phone and was talking upstairs and pointing at me. Then a few more guys came down and they were talking and looking at me as I continued to roll.

I quickly took down all of my bets other than pass line, grabbed my chips and left. I later hooked up with the other players and they told me I avoided getting kicked out and they were told to tell me to stay away. that was the only time I had played at Luxor. I had never done anything else at Luxor but walk through. So I certainly wasn't as lucky as Kewl in avoiding detection, and I have always wondered why in that situation it even happened.

I should add that I had taken Bellagio for $170,000 on an hour and 40 roll not too long prior thereto.

[kewlJ]

I asked KJ how he avoided losing most of his stores over so many years as well.

No matter how careful/good one is, there are always unexpected events beyond your control. Unexpected pit change, former pit boss who is now a dealer, policy changes, mistaken identity, someone is having a bad day and they want to take it out on someone. A local gets pissed off because you hit or stood on something they didn't agree with, so they complain and turn you in, A dealer catches on and doesn't like his tips. I could go on and on.

I know many former card counter who had similar approaches to CC at even lower levels that would get pegged at some location every 2 or 3 months it seemed.

Perhaps JK is on the good side of variance as far as the unexpected things that can happen too CC's. Perhaps he's running bad in other aspects of life.

Axelwolf, I do not recall any such conversation with you in private or public about this topic. I am not saying such a conversation did not occur, but if it did, and this is what you took away from it, something was definitely lost in translation. To explain, I will do a brief recap of my history as a professional BJ player.


My first 5 and a half years, I was based out of Atlantic City, while I lived on the east coast. There were a couple trips to Connecticut and a few trips to Vegas in the later part of those 5.5 years, but the majority of my play at that time was Atlantic City, playing low limit. I didn't have much issues with Atlantic City the first 4 years or so, playing low limit, even as my max bet began to grow a little I was spreading red to light green. It was that final year when my bankroll grew to the point that I could start playing green to black that things almost immediately changed. Those stores and pit folks that didn't care about me spreading $5 and $10 to $75, all of the sudden began to care, when I started spreading $25 to $200.

Most people know AC can not bar players, or even backoff players (no more blackjack) like Las Vegas can. But what they could and did do was start cutting the shoe in half, meaning 50% penetration which is basically unplayable. Borgata where most of my play took place had a different tactic. They would "bet restrict" me only at a table. Despite that it was a $25 table with a card stating table minimum for everyone else, they would pull out a special card for me that said Minimum wager $5, maximum wager $50. They were essentially allowing me to spread 1-10 at the $5 amount, which years earlier I would have been ok with. Unfortunately at this point in my career, that was going to be a problem. With such a small rotation, very well known and counter measures mounting, I decided to head west.

Now when I arrived in Vegas, I didn't want the same thing to occur, that is to say, wear out my welcome, so I devised a plan of attack specifically suited to Las Vegas. On the early blackjack sites that I participated on there was a player with the handle "bigplayer". As you might guess from his name he spent many years as one of the big players on a very famous blackjack team (not MIT) and he is a member of the blackjack hall of fame, not that I put all that much into that status. But this guy knew his stuff. When he advised, people listened (like that old investing commercial). So the big player quote that always stuck with me, went something like this, "The advantage of Las Vegas is quantity, not quality". Those words were the foundation of my plan of attack...a large rotation of games, so I would only be seen several times a month and if I am doing it correctly....on different shifts. And playing short sessions and moving on to the next location. This makes those really big wins of $5,000+ that get noticed so easily, occur much less frequently.

There are also a couple other things I do, some I have talked about, like chip inventory and some I have never mentioned, but all are designed with longevity in mind. Longevity is my top priority. I have the bank roll to play much higher stakes, but I continue at my mid-level play because that offers the best chance at longevity. It is a level of play well tolerated.

I have more to say, so I am going to break this up. (end of Part 1)

[kewlJ]

OK, part 2. (and then I will go back and correct grammar/spelling as best I can).


So as I settled in to Las Vegas and my new style of play, I received many backoffs. In my first years, maybe 6-9 a year. At least one every couple months. It was part of the learning process. As time went on I got that down to 4-6 a year and lately 2-4 a year. It is part of the learning process of reading what is going on, what is being tolerated, or within the comfort level of different casinos and pit. Often I see heat coming before a backoff now, that is why the number is down, but I still occasionally misread a situation and get that "no more blackjack", or "you are too good for us" or whatever other lame statement they make.

Actually about my 2nd or third year here, I actually provoked several backoffs at a small, notoriously sweaty place downtown. There was an older pit guy that I wore out my welcome with and he would back me off saying I couldn't play blackjack. I would show up two days later and he would again back me off. Sometimes he would say "didn't I tell you, no more blackjack" and I would say, yeah that was yesterday, or last week. You could see the steam coming from his ears, but it told him that I knew the law, that a player must be given the opportunity to leave even if previously backed off. (that would be the Wilkenson case). So as you can see, sometimes my arrogance, didn't always serve me well. There was nothing to gain from that tactic.

So I have referred to backoffs only so far, as technically, in my mind that is all I have ever received. I don't consider that I have ever been trespassed, although there were 3 occasions that are close (but not in my mind). One was clearly only a backoff at a very small casino just off of Boulder Highway, south of the town of Henderson. You and I have discussed this property in other matters. So my backoff there, was really still a backoff, but since they only had like 2 blackjack tables and one shift per day (tables were open 4pm to 10pm or midnight), that backoff was for all intensive purposes a baring. No chance to play blackjack there. I was playing above there comfort level anyway, and knew it was just a matter of time. That was a fringe property in my rotation.

Number 2 that was close was again a problem with my arrogance. (I have since gotten that under control ) So I was playing at a very sweaty store in Pennsylvania, near Washington's winter encampment. Got backed off (in my mind). Went back the next day, got backed off again. And then one more time for good measure a week later during the same trip. I figured what the hell, this dump isn't part of my regular rotation. But those backoffs followed me back to Las Vegas, and I lost 3 stores that were in my regular rotation within days...just temporarily. That lesson is that Data base entries travel faster than airplanes.

#3, just before I moved to Las Vegas, I took a month long trip to figure things out and be sure this is what I wanted to do. I stayed in a boarding house on Ogden Avenue right behind El Cortez. It was like $45 a week. Bathroom in the hall. That boarding house is now gone, and has been converted in to what is now the Cabana Suites, part of El Cortez.

So anyway, during this period, I was playing the strip, Caesar's and was backed off. Told no more BJ and escorted to the backroom. I was probably 25, looked barely 21 and they were out to intimidate me. I am sure that was heading for a full trespass. But in travel to the "back room" escorted by a couple suites and security guys, I stated that I wanted to call my attorney, Bob Nersesian. I hadn't met, nor knew Bob at the time, just his name and reputation. Upon mention of his name, the parade stopped, one of the suits turned to me and said "get the hell out of here". And I did. I ran half way to Mandelay Bay.

So I have had my issues with backoffs. I don't consider that I have ever been trespassed, although I am now remembering a kind of oral trespass at South Point, that I have since ignored. But for the most part I have become pretty good at identifying potential situation before they occur. So it's not by accident that I have gotten better...I have worked hard at it. Longevity is my top priority and I work hard at it.

[kewlJ]

So in thinking about this topic for the past hour, I am remembering some things.

I was orally trespassed at South Point. I don't know if that counts. I didn't sign anything. But I was orally threatened with trespass arrest if I returned (which I have).

The small casino off of Boulder Highway, the General manager actually called my cell phone and left a voicemail that I could not play blackjack. Yes, he had my cellphone number. I played a promotion there every week that required me to play rated. The backoff there was really inevitable.

At El Cortez, the older pit guy that I tried to agitate actually followed me into the men's room, saying "no blackjack" "no Blackjack". As I stepped away from the urinal and stepped to the sink to wash my hands, I said to him, something like "be sure and wash your hands, Mo" (his name was Maurice). I think THAT is the moment he actually realized that he had followed me into the men's room. I really did get under that poor old guy's skin. There was absolutely no benefit to doing so. It was really unprofessional of me. He is since retired.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey just because the facts don't fit your narrative doesn't mean you need to get all worked up again.

For the 4th time, I published my ban letter from Bellagio in GT as well as where else I was banned from in my "-EV" career. And right now I'm banned from playing at Silverton, South Point, GVR, Casino Fandango, and Eldorado. And of course, Rob Singer is the ONLY player to have provided absolute proof of being banned (not the pussified "restricted" like Dancer and other followers like to claim for perception) in the form of publication All these collection of self-proclaimed ap's ever do is make an assertion about themselves or other hot-shot "AP's" then expect the rest of the world to simply take their word for it because they say they're from that ap community--or get insulted and called names for not buying into what they're selling.

Wise up, bum.

Put up some proof you got banned, bitch. Running your punk ass mouth ain't proof. You demand that everyone else put up proof so put up some proof, bitch. Oh, that's right. For some reason you can't. That's because you are a low life stinking liar and a punk ass bitch.

[RS__]

You didn't mention progressive jackpots tableplay. You made a blanket statement.

Yes, progressive jackpots over and above the casino base payoff come from the players.

Next time be clear.

But all players whether they are blackjack, craps, video poker, slots, roulette, Paigow are playing against the casino.

It wasn't a blanket statement. He said machine hustlers.

[Deech]

KewlJ, thanks for the posts. This is why I read the forum, to learn. Fascinating info.

[redietz]

KewlJ, thanks for the posts. This is why I read the forum, to learn. Fascinating info.

Yes, these told me a lot that I didn't know. Thanks for posting them.

[redietz]

Obsessed redietz who can't let the chance for a dig at me or Rob Singer wrote:

"That video poker player's profile would stand out like a T. Rex in a chicken coop to casino personnel, so undoubtedly the investigative reporter would turn his full cynical eye to such a series of posts and claims."

It's been well documented that Rob was told not to play in certain casinos because of his winnings. When I did the interviews with him it was tough to find a casino that would let us do them on the casino floor, so one set of interviews were done in my room at Caesars and one set was done in the high limit area of Hard Rock.

Another strike out for redietz.

This was a really misleading and diversionary post. Surprisingly dishonest. Most casinos are not going to allow videotaping on the casino floor . The clear implication here is that somehow Argentino's presence was the reason for the non-allowance of videotaping.

So, I will ask Mr. Mendelson directly, "Are you suggesting or implying that the videotaping was not allowed because Argentino was banned at most casinos? What precisely was said to you? Do you publicly stand by the statement that Argentino's winning was the reason you were not allowed to videotape at casinos, and can you name those casinos?"

Because, of course, I will ask those casinos if that was the case.

Just really dishonest regarding the videotaping.

As to "It's been well documented..." -- that phrase is passive voice, meaning, Mr. Mendelson does not have his hands on any of that evidence. He's presenting it second hand, based on Argentino's reportage. Now some people might ask (1) what was in the original banning letter from Bellagio -- did it state a banning due to winning, (2) what other casinos banned due to winning, and how does one verify that the banning excluded other reasons (such as vulgar or inappropriate behavior or non-payment of markers), and (3) why follow the "It's been well documented..." slop with a sentence explaining how hard it is to videotape on casino floors?

Without writing in advance for permission, most casinos will not allow videotaping involving people.

[a2a3dseddie]

Show us this documentation of Rob being barred from any and all casinos because of his video poker play.

Mickey, it looks like it's going to depend whether or not Rob is in a "mis-remembering" mood or not.

I'M BANNED!

I called the executive offices at the Silverton, a place that won't allow me to play vp there any more because of being "too lucky". I asked if my situation was a result, in any way, of an OSN analysis.

I'M NOT BANNED!

That's what I did overnight at the Silverton--I trained a local "AP" who teaches 9th grade math in LV, and a few hours later someone who was on vacation from Michigan. They both won as they played 25c thru $2 ARTT and BOTH took advantage of hitting four face cards on $2 SDBP--and collecting $1200 W2G's--as a vehicle for their winning sessions. Even I won earlier in the evening while waiting, but I won less than either of them, which I enjoyed. It was a worthwhile trip and a good night all-around.

I"M NOT BANNED!

Did you check the date of my post about Silverton? Have you also checked to see how many times their mgmt. has changed since?

I"M BANNED!

And right now I'm banned from playing at Silverton, South Point, GVR, Casino Fandango, and Eldorado.

[Alan Mendelson]

Question for kewlj: with your history how do you manage to return to the casinos where you were noticed? Do you use disguises or do memories lapse?

I returned to MGM months after I was told I could not shoot dice there. I did go to a craps table and played but I bet without being the shooter. Within minutes of my arrival at the table some suit showed up with two security guards and watched me at the table. I'm sure they were there to be sure I didn't try to be the shooter. I'm sure their facial recognition software saw me as soon as I was in the pit. I did not use a card.

By the way, it was an early Sunday morning. $5 minimum bets and my sister was the shooter. She rolled for about a half-hour and we (she, husband, me) left. She is a 100% random shooter who just got lucky.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm, Eddie, others: Rob Singer should post his timeline for when bans were made.

It's interesting also that kewlj has now remembered with detail how he has had trouble with casinos in Vegas when previously he had no problems because casino employees didn't care.

[monet]

Mendlebread, Mendlebread, Mendlebread... nope still not working... Fucking Bullshit.