$25k challenge

[Mission146]

So Singer has a 74% chance to win the first session. What changes in the second session, and in the third, and in the fourth....?

Nothing. I'm saying as long as each individual session has that probability, then he is more than 50% likely to win eight (or more) out of ten sessions.

That was also 74.2%, to be clear. At 74% exactly he would be less than 50% likely to win eight (or more) of ten sessions.

If nothing changes and he's 74.2% to win the first session, then he's 74.2% to win the second session and the third and the fourth. So... doesn't that mean he's 74.2% to win it all?

Let's use coin flips. LOL

If Rob has the skill to flip 74 out of 100 coins as heads shouldn't that skill be the same in each session?

Let me use an AP example:

If an AP says he's playing a game that gives him a 100.7% return on the first hand plsyed, doesn't he have the same EV on the second hand and the third and the fourth....?

No, it doesn't mean he's 74.2% to win it all. The reason why is Variance, so you can use a Binomial Distribution to determine the probability of hitting a target x out of y win goal.

You're forgetting that the bet is to win eight (or more) out of ten sessions, so the mean number of sessions (out of ten) won on a .742 probability is 7.42 sessions, which is obviously not a possible amount of sessions. Anyway, he can win anywhere from 0-10 sessions and each number of sessions has its own probability. The most likely individual result in that scenario is eight out of ten followed closely by seven out of ten.

It has nothing to do with coin flips.

Anyway, if he has a 74.2% chance to win each session, then out of ten sessions, there is a certain probability he will win 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10. Here are the probabilities for 8, 9 and 10:

8: 0.275222013593
9: 0.175895550462
10: 0.0505870149

0.275222013593+0.175895550462+0.0505870149= 0.50170457895

That's more over 50% than I would like, but that's because you rounded my more specific number up to 74.2%.

Anyway, that's all the time I have to instruct you on rudimentary math for today. These are very simple concepts that any gambler should have some sort of grasp on. If you wish to compensate me for individual mathematical instruction, then that might be able to be arranged.

I'm afraid I'm going to have to just assume that you're trolling from here on out as relates this subject. I refuse to believe that anyone could be stupid enough to suggest what's quoted above, especially not someone who is educated.