A Little Bit of Knowledge

[redietz]

is a dangerous thing.

For those who think what I do is easy, or can be somewhat matched by poring over AP articles, statistics, and injury reports, I submit the ATS records of the five staff writers for the USA Today sports section, whose ATS records in 2018 are 23-47-8, 35-38-5, 27-41-10, 31-42-5, and 38-34-6, for a cumulative 154-202 ATS. The consensus top five selections in the Westgate Superbook Contest are currently 11-14 ATS, which is on pace for a showing similar to 2017 and 2016.

[kewlJ]

I already knew that a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. My sportsbetting over the years has more than proven that to myself. Over the last two weekends, I lost 11 games in a row before winning a game last Sunday. One might think how is this even possible? Maybe it is time to bring out the old dart board as a means of making my picks. In my defense, I wager on Thursday/Friday night televised games even if I don't like the game. IE...I find a reason to like one team or the other. That is a prescription for losing.

Luckily for me, my wagers are in the entertainment range of $110. That way each wager has a theoretical cost of a few dollars and a dozen games over the weekend costs less than if I took myself to dinner and a movie.

I don't know how you do it Redietz...hard work I am sure, but congrats on your continuing success.

But I was thinking, for those that think progressions are the answer to everything. Martingaling my 11 losses at $110, my wager on that 11th game would have been $112,640. And I would have lost that wager for a total loss of over $225,000. My wager on the 12th game would need to have been $225,280 and my win on that game would have netted a win of $100 for the week, assuming I could have gotten that wager down, without eating up that amount of gas spreading the wager around town. And of course winning that 12th wager (I don't even remember the game) would have resulted in a pretty good tax liability. Yeah, I could have offset that, but is that hassle worth it.

Progression betting systems are definitely not the answer to any gambling solution. That has been proven time and time again.

[Moses]

IMO, the NFL is by far the most difficult pro sport to handicap. My best results are generally in the NHL which is ironic because I can't even skate. I have maybe 5 NFL bets a year on average. I bet the same amount each game and do not consider parlays as a worthwhile endeavor. My bet amount stings, thus forces patience, discipline, and selectivity. I have no idea who will win or cover - I'm a horrible handicapper in the regard. Research and value are the basis of my investment.

The comment I love is "Moses only bets the easy games."

KJ. FWIW. My cousin has become a decent college football handicapper. He loves college football and that is all he plays. He was 5-0-1 last weekend. His winning percentage has been around 54%-55% for the last few years. I can't explain exactly what he does. He is not a typical bettor or AP. But, in general, he gathers information from the top notch handicappers in Vegas throughout the week and then studies on Friday nights and Saturday mornings, then runs down and makes his bets.

[RS__]

As of before today, my NFL+NCAACP picks ATS have been 20-7 this season. Including today I think I’m at 21-8. Rutgers fucked me by half a point those bastards.

Then again I’m getting lucky and also betting stale lines, so ya know - it’s not that hard.

[Rob.Singer]

And we're supposed to believe anyone's claimed records AFTER the games have been selected?

How about posting the games HERE BEFORE they're played. Then we can all determine who's for real and who's not.

[mickeycrimm]

And we're supposed to believe anyone's claimed records AFTER the games have been selected?

How about posting the games HERE BEFORE they're played. Then we can all determine who's for real and who's not.

Yuo go first, bitch.

[Moses]

How about posting the games HERE BEFORE they're played.

Good point Rob. But I'm concerned with cashing tix vs realdom. There would be challanges. For one, many of my bets game time decisions or the overnight line which can jump considerably the next day. I had one bet in baseball this year that dropped all the way from -142 to -128 about two minutes before game time. This made it a value bet instead of a game to pass. I made the bet walked back to the table and the first pitch was thrown. IF a new guy would've had to check with the manager to get the bet approved I would've been screwed.

You'd be amazed how pissed people can get over the giving or taking of picks.

[Rob.Singer]

How about posting the games HERE BEFORE they're played.

Good point Rob. But I'm concerned with cashing tix vs realdom. There would be challanges. For one, many of my bets game time decisions or the overnight line which can jump consierably. I had one bet in baseball this year that dropped all the way from -142 to -128 about two minutes before game time. This made it a value bet instead of a game to pass. I made the bet walked back to the table and the first pitch was thrown. IF a new guy would've had to check with the manager to get the bet approved I would've been screwed.

You'd be amazed how pissed people can get over the giving or taking of picks.

I understand at times there's last minute bets made. But even if these self-proclaimed/high-octain unproven guys like redietz do that, they can still post their bets, then show the ticket they got at the 11th hour if their team wins. I wouldn't expect they'd show a losing ticket. It's bad for the solicitation business.

[mickeycrimm]

How about posting the games HERE BEFORE they're played.

Good point Rob. But I'm concerned with cashing tix vs realdom. There would be challanges. For one, many of my bets game time decisions or the overnight line which can jump consierably. I had one bet in baseball this year that dropped all the way from -142 to -128 about two minutes before game time. This made it a value bet instead of a game to pass. I made the bet walked back to the table and the first pitch was thrown. IF a new guy would've had to check with the manager to get the bet approved I would've been screwed.

You'd be amazed how pissed people can get over the giving or taking of picks.

I understand at times there's last minute bets made. But even if these self-proclaimed/high-octain unproven guys like redietz do that, they can still post their bets, then show the ticket they got at the 11th hour if their team wins. I wouldn't expect they'd show a losing ticket. It's bad for the solicitation business.

You proved how stupid you are on your own site when you couldn't even hit 45% winners. Start putting your picks up again, Argenshithole. We'll make a killing betting the opposite.

[Moses]

I give a couple of guys my picks. One is usually to confirm the ticket is correct as I usually forget my readers. The other guy bets $5. I rarely watch the games I bet. I go to bed early or catch a movie. One day I go in to cash a ticket and Lou is pissed at me. Wait, didn't we win? Yes, but the game went into extra innings and he wanted to go home.

[mickeycrimm]

Moses, about 10 years ago on the LVA Forums Argenshithole gave alot of grief to Fezzik and the others telling them how great he was at handicapping and how bad they were. Now Argenshithole is headstrong and thinks he knows everything even though he's dumb as a rock. You know the type. He had his own website then and to rub it in their noses at LVA Forums he started putting up his own picks at the start of the NFL season. Halfway through the season he was so far behind there was no chance of him ever catching up. So he quit posting his picks for the year and blamed it all on bad luck.

But the next year Argenshithole sprang back bragging he would show them this time. But alas, halfway through the season he was so far behind there was no chance he would ever catch back up. So he quit again. He's a quitter.

He wound up getting banned from LVA forums by Anthony Curtis himself. Alot of time has passed since then and every once in awhile Argenshithole will start bragging about what a great NFL handicapper he is. The truth is the guy couldn't pick his own mother out of nine chinamen.

If he starts putting up his picks here just bet the opposite and you will crush it.

[Rob.Singer]

I give a couple of guys my picks. One is usually to confirm the ticket is correct as I usually forget my readers. The other guy bets $5. I rarely watch the games I bet. I go to bed early or catch a movie. One day I go in to cash a ticket and Lou is pissed at me. Wait, didn't we win? Yes, but the game went into extra innings and he wanted to go home.

I'm an expert vp player--not an expert sportsbettor. But I AM ahead ten'sof thousands of dollars betting only on NFL games nonetheless.

No I didn't do great when I was posting my Singer Five each week on LVA, but at least I was posting the games I bet on BEFORE the games were played, and I identified my financial wins and losses.

I rarely made bets on the NFL after that. Then came the week at the Hyatt in Incline Village in 2011. I think. I reserved two lakeside cabins for a winter getaway for my entire family, and through a friend I learned a key player on one of the NFL teams would be out for Sunday's game.

So I took a small chance--I decided to make similar five-game parlay bets with spreads. I forgot the amount but I POSTED THE GAMES AND AMOUNT RIGHT HERE. (yeah Spock, go back and find it for us....oh that's right, there's nothing phony that you can make up or spin about this one....). Needless to say, it was a very big long shot. And needless to say, the P-A-I-N level went up with my critics and haters with every win. After it was over, I took somewhere aound a $43k combined win from several S. Lake Tahoe casinos.

But ap's like to believe how mickey plays at Indian casinos and only claims to play at those he posts winners from, which are few and far between.

[redietz]

True story:

At the bookmaking trial for a prominent northeast bookmaker, Mike Stockunas, who allegedly took wagers from some quite famous people (an NFL owner, for example), one of Stockunas' assistants was put on the stand to explain some of the evidence. He was asked what kinds of bets he had taken. The assistant mentioned that he had taken straight bets and parlays. The prosecutor then asked if he knew what a parlay was. The assistant smiled and said, "Yes, it's a really stupid bet." A wave of laughter swept the courtroom.

[Moses]

There was a time when I was a decent NFL handicapper. It was like an approach to the stock market. Good teams remained good and bad teams remained bad from season to season. But when replay came in my handicapping skills went out the window. So I took on the NBA, NHL, an MLB which today is my primary focus.

It wasn't so much losing, but the way I was losing. There was one game I was laying 6 1/2 and up 20-10 late in the 4th quarter. My team intercepted and ran it back for a TD which would've put them up 27-10. Instead they looked at replay forever to determine his toe was slightly out of bounds at the 10. So they kick a FG to go up 23-10. Then go into a prevent defense and give up a meaningless TD on the last play of the game to win 23-17. But I lose my bet.

Then there was then Pittburgh vs San Diego fixer of the century. They were actually cashing tix. Then the official came back on several minutess later after commercials and ruled no TD. People who had cash their ticket got the hell out of Dodge. The rest standing in line? I seriously thought there was going to be a riot.

So I'm very careful about picking my spots in NFL games.

[Moses]

If he starts putting up his picks here just bet the opposite and you will crush it.

Mick. There is one guy that is shit faced about 90% of the time. He goes around asking everyone what they think about his pick. He banters back and forth. Inevitably, he goes with the wrong side. But whichever side chooses the team is out of contention early. I've never seen anything like it. Then he starts bitching because the casino is screwing him. HE has no idea who he will bet before he gets to the window. I've seriously thought about getting in line behind him and going to other way.

As one guy put it. "He must have done something horrible in another lifetime."

[jbjb]

I'm an expert vp player

The fuck you are! You're a VP ploppy, and that's it!