Hatred on this Forum

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewl-here is what I don't understand. Keeping track of EV does what for you? Do you alter your play in some way based upon changes in your EV? Do you alter your play in some way based upon your actual results? Or do you just know that you have whatever "edge" and keep playing? How does the accumulated EV effect what you do?

Tracking the EV let's you know the overall edge you are playing at.

Mickey--Kewl has been playing BJ for years now. Doesn't he know the edge at every table at every casino? Does it change? And again, what does he then change based upon this theoretical (or even real) EV? I am not questioning the existence of this accumulated EV (at least for the purpose of this discussion). Rather, how does it effect his game. Does he change anything based upon the EV being higher, lower, etc. From day to day, does his approach change in any way based upon the calculation of EV?

Let me give you an example. I suck at cheap maiden claiming races on dirt. I excel at maiden turf races. I know that. I am sure I have a positive EV betting maiden turf races. So I primarily bet those races. Nothing changes day to day. I bet most of the maiden turf races and I don't bet the maiden claimers on dirt. So what does Kewl do based upon this EV? How does it effect his day to day strategy?

Is there a reason you're not asking kewlj these questions?

[regnis]

Tracking the EV let's you know the overall edge you are playing at.

Mickey--Kewl has been playing BJ for years now. Doesn't he know the edge at every table at every casino? Does it change? And again, what does he then change based upon this theoretical (or even real) EV? I am not questioning the existence of this accumulated EV (at least for the purpose of this discussion). Rather, how does it effect his game. Does he change anything based upon the EV being higher, lower, etc. From day to day, does his approach change in any way based upon the calculation of EV?

Let me give you an example. I suck at cheap maiden claiming races on dirt. I excel at maiden turf races. I know that. I am sure I have a positive EV betting maiden turf races. So I primarily bet those races. Nothing changes day to day. I bet most of the maiden turf races and I don't bet the maiden claimers on dirt. So what does Kewl do based upon this EV? How does it effect his day to day strategy?

Is there a reason you're not asking kewlj these questions?

I did. Kewl gave some explanation but didn't address my questions. Max also gave some explanation. Mickey also responded so I now addressed it to him. I am open to anyone's explanation if they will answer my fairly simple question. Max compared it to sales and I understand. But again, does anything change as it relates to Kewl's BJ strategy. Does the "number" in any way cause a reaction or change in his strategy or play or methodology? Or is it a number, which sounds good (or bad), but doesn't effect anything that he then does.

I would also point out that Kewl referenced team play which doesn't apply to him. So again, not to even argue the whole accumulated EV issue, I just want to know how it effects what Kewl then does based upon that number. If it is so important, then what is the reaction to it.

[Rob.Singer]

regnis, when someone who obviously concocts much of what he says about his "bj pro" life is asked the tough questions, two things go into motion after the initial incoherent response. First, his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face. Then and at the same time, kew is sitting there biting his nails desperately hoping you buy what they're selling. He will eventually come back on, after spending nervous hours trying to wordsmith another shifty answer that will somehow get rid of you and hopefully make him look "OK" to his cheering anonymous AP fan base.

I've watched this type of AP behavior for many years, and wrote about it for 8 of them.
The public LOVED it.

[Moses]

KJ. I set my son up in biz a few years ago. Gave him my truck and spent a month helping him launch. As I told him, sometimes success comes from what you don't do. It's like a bottleneck. He's doing great but now he spends about as much time in customer service and he does selling. Thus his growth has become stagnent. There are certain clients that drain a person. In order to maximize growth he needs to recognize that client and walk away or not get involved in the first place. As he puts it "Dad, you're addicted to efficiency." That may be but I never much liked working for free or pennies.

I see many of the same qualities in you. You are young, amibtious, and setting the world on fire. But man, if you could just learn to duck. I'd say your growth from a time standpoint is close to the max. No? As you "accumulate growth" you will also "gain attention."

My rule of thumb is table minimum. If you're playing $25 tables you should be making $25k a year. If not, there is something wrong in your game. So, if $100K is the goal? Play $100 tables. The further you go up the ladder the more difficult it is to play within casino tolerance.

[Moses]

I've watched this type of AP behavior for many years, and wrote about it for 8 of them.
The public LOVED it.

You're an interesting dude. Could probably teach me a thing or two.

[regnis]

regnis, when someone who obviously concocts much of what he says about his "bj pro" life is asked the tough questions, two things go into motion after the initial incoherent response. First, his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face. Then and at the same time, kew is sitting there biting his nails desperately hoping you buy what they're selling. He will eventually come back on, after spending nervous hours trying to wordsmith another shifty answer that will somehow get rid of you and hopefully make him look "OK" to his cheering anonymous AP fan base.

I've watched this type of AP behavior for many years, and wrote about it for 8 of them.
The public LOVED it.

Rob-I'm not trying to make him look bad or put him in that position. I just don't understand the whole concept. I'm willing to learn if my simple questions are answered. I actually never questioned or doubted that he makes a living at BJ. I just don't get how any of this effects how he plays his next hand.

[kewlJ]

I would also point out that Kewl referenced team play which doesn't apply to him. So again, not to even argue the whole accumulated EV issue, I just want to know how it effects what Kewl then does based upon that number. If it is so important, then what is the reaction to it.

Actually this is incorrect, regnis. I have a blackjack partner. We operate a two man team. Also in the past my late AP partner/and I partnered in a limited amount of blackjack play (mostly out of town). But whether I am playing with a partner, larger team or solo really makes little difference. Accumulated EV, which is the term I use (others may use different terminology) is how professional blackjack players, team and solo players, track their play.


Alan is playing his trolling games, arguing things he knows nothing about, trying to put me on the defensive as if I am on trial. And now he is trying to get other members like regnis to do the same. Alan, I am not on trial here, nor am I obliged to explain anything to the likes of you. I am happy to explain things and try to help reasonable members that have an interest in learning what I do. But I don't have to waste my time explaining anything to a troll like you, who is playing games, has an agenda and has been using every trick in his troll book to attempt to discredit me since the day I arrived here. So just crawl back under your rock Alan.

But for the rest of you...this isn't that difficult. Expected value is the value of every wager made. The formula is advantage x wager. So most games (and situations) the casino has an advantage. Let's take 6 deck blackjack, standard Vegas rules. Casino or house advantage of roughly half a percent. So the casino knows that for every dollar wagered, they will win half a cent or 50 cents per $100 wagered. And adding up all that EV (accumulated EV) from all players, is the total accumulated EV and that is what the casino win will be in the long run. Some players will win short-term, maybe a player (non-AP or counter) wins $1000 on this day and another wins $5000, but over the long run, the casino knows exactly what to expect to win, and their win will be pretty close to that.

And it works the exact same way for AP's. In the case of AP's, we have the advantage, instead of the casino and will win in the long run. We may lose short term, meaning days, weeks, even months, but in the longterm we will win. This is a mathematical certainty. Tracking EV (accumulated EV) is the procedure for what you have really earned. Anything short or above that is just variance...just short term fluctuation, just like those meaningless losing or even large winning days. They just don't mean anything in the long run.

Long run or long term. This is how casino operate and this is exactly how AP's operate. BUT this is not how degenerate or losing gamblers operate or think. And that is why this concept is so foreign to someone like Alan. That is not an attack. It is a fact. Alan thinks short-term, just like a typical gambler. And that is OK. But it is obnoxious that he wants to argue these mathematical concepts that he either doesn't understand or pretends not to.

[jbjb]

KJ, don't waste your time answers these guys. If they don't understand it by now, they never will.

[regnis]

Kewl-don't lump me in with Alan here. I still have one simple question. That's all. One simple question. How does the EV effect your strategy or methodology? If it goes up, does anything change? If it goes down, does anything change?

My simplistic approach is that you know you have an edge and therefore you play and know you will win. How does any fluctuation in the EV effect your play?

That's it. No agenda here. No personal attack. But what I am trying to ask is what good it does to determine the accumulated EV if it doesn't effect anything you would then do. Or, as I keep asking, does it change something in your strategy.

[Rob.Singer]

KJ. I set my son up in biz a few years ago. Gave him my truck and spent a month helping him launch. As I told him, sometimes success comes from what you don't do. It's like a bottleneck. He's doing great but now he spends about as much time in customer service and he does selling. Thus his growth has become stagnent. There are certain clients that drain a person. In order to maximize growth he needs to recognize that client and walk away or not get involved in the first place. As he puts it "Dad, you're addicted to efficiency." That may be but I never much liked working for free or pennies.

I see many of the same qualities in you. You are young amibtious and setting the world on fire. But man, if you could just learn to duck. I'd say your growth from a time standpoint is close to the max. No? As you "accumulate growth" you will also "gain attention."

My rule of thumb is table minimum. If you're playing $25 tables you should be making $25k a year. If not, there is something wrong in your game. So, if $100K is the goal? Play $100 tables. The further you go up the ladder the more difficult it is to play within casino tolerance.

Moses, I'd like an honest answer. Kew claims to be able to count two tables simultaneously, including the one he's playing at. I rejected that type of ability for multiple sensible reasons, and the result was him and his mob here then reducing this "ability" (having no other obvious choice) to "well....what I mean is the count doesn't really have to be THAT accurate!" Which, naturally, is a very stupid response. Imagine playing at a table where you don't have a good beat on the count, yet you bet as if you do. Or, imagine jumping out of your chair and into one at the next table, just to get involved in an inaccurate count. Makes no sense.

I brought this "ability" to the attn. of a friend of mine last week who happens to be Dir. of Casino Operations for the Peppermill chain of casinos. He took the time to first perform examples of sitting at two side-by-side tables that were not in use. He wears glasses and I don't. The only way we could distinguish between the cards other than face cards, was if the card was held upright and still directly facing us on the closest 1/3 of the table. And this was without distractions, people in the way, cards being flat on the table, or any time restrictions.

He also has explained to and showed me the computerized system they and many casinos use to supplement "eyes" to counter counters. He said in many instances, counters are recognized--and tossed--with their info (and soon facial recognition software will be in all casinos) being shared at least statewide.

I have no doubt that counting two tables is another silly myth. Sounds good on internet forums, but in actual casino settings, casino managers don't care a bit about it because it's irrelevant. And they tell me teams who think they can count and alert these days get tossed even faster.

So that leaves us with the tiny edge associated with counting. What's the secret....how does someone consistently defeat systems in place that I'm told cannot be defeated on a regular basis, no matter where or how many casinos are on a player's docket?

[regnis]

And i might add. You have written how this forum is simply for trolls and you can't have an intelligent conversation. Yet here I am asking a simple question, with no trolling and no agenda, and everyone wants to make it a fight. Here is your chance to explain the concept. But please don't dance around it.

[Rob.Singer]

Kewl-don't lump me in with Alan here. I still have one simple question. That's all. One simple question. How does the EV effect your strategy or methodology? If it goes up, does anything change? If it goes down, does anything change?

My simplistic approach is that you know you have an edge and therefore you play and know you will win. How does any fluctuation in the EV effect your play?

That's it. No agenda here. No personal attack. But what I am trying to ask is what good it does to determine the accumulated EV if it doesn't effect anything you would then do. Or, as I keep asking, does it change something in your strategy.

I'll be the jbjb on the sensible side. Kew cannot answer that question because he realizes he made a claim that has no basis in common sense, and was only made because he got agitated by another of Alan's legitimate assessments.

[Alan Mendelson]

regnis, when someone who obviously concocts much of what he says about his "bj pro" life is asked the tough questions, two things go into motion after the initial incoherent response. First, his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face. Then and at the same time, kew is sitting there biting his nails desperately hoping you buy what they're selling. He will eventually come back on, after spending nervous hours trying to wordsmith another shifty answer that will somehow get rid of you and hopefully make him look "OK" to his cheering anonymous AP fan base.

I've watched this type of AP behavior for many years, and wrote about it for 8 of them.
The public LOVED it.

Rob-I'm not trying to make him look bad or put him in that position. I just don't understand the whole concept. I'm willing to learn if my simple questions are answered. I actually never questioned or doubted that he makes a living at BJ. I just don't get how any of this effects how he plays his next hand.

Regnis, before kewlj responded several other forum members gave their interpretation of what kewlj said. Among them Half Smoke and redietz and mickeycrimm and NONE of them was correct.

Rob is on to something when he says "his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face."

Both you, regnis and Coach, have asked kewlj to explain how his accumulating EV when losing changes or effects his game. Kewlj has not responded. I doubt he will.

Rob has suggested that kewlj's "accumulating EV" just means that kewlj believes he's "due" to break out of his slump and win. I've asked kewlj to comment. Isn't that the gambler's fallacy?

[regnis]

regnis, when someone who obviously concocts much of what he says about his "bj pro" life is asked the tough questions, two things go into motion after the initial incoherent response. First, his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face. Then and at the same time, kew is sitting there biting his nails desperately hoping you buy what they're selling. He will eventually come back on, after spending nervous hours trying to wordsmith another shifty answer that will somehow get rid of you and hopefully make him look "OK" to his cheering anonymous AP fan base.

I've watched this type of AP behavior for many years, and wrote about it for 8 of them.
The public LOVED it.

Rob-I'm not trying to make him look bad or put him in that position. I just don't understand the whole concept. I'm willing to learn if my simple questions are answered. I actually never questioned or doubted that he makes a living at BJ. I just don't get how any of this effects how he plays his next hand.

Regnis, before kewlj responded several other forum members gave their interpretation of what kewlj said. Among them Half Smoke and redietz and mickeycrimm and NONE of them was correct.

Rob is on to something when he says "his apologists come scrambling in, in an attempt to help him save face."

Both you, regnis and Coach, have asked kewlj to explain how his accumulating EV when losing changes or effects his game. Kewlj has not responded. I doubt he will.

Rob has suggested that kewlj's "accumulating EV" just means that kewlj believes he's "due" to break out of his slump and win. I've asked kewlj to comment. Isn't that the gambler's fallacy?

Yes Alan. And like you said, others have responded, but not directly to my question. I don't want to hear the theory behind it. For the sake of discussion, I will accept all of that. But again, my big question is NOW WHAT?

[kewlJ]

I'll give you a little example from real life experiences, but I am not going to use my numbers as for some reason, I get attacked for that.

My younger brother. This was before we became partners. His first year, I set him up with a small bankroll so he could play low stakes $5 and $10 games for experience. Not really about making money. It was part of the learning process.

So I set him up with a 10k rankroll to play red chip. I didn't track his EV precisely as I do my own or my teammates play, but for the level he was playing and the time he was putting in I estimated his EV to be roughly $800 a month. I figured his expected win for the year to be in the $8000 - $10,000 range. (maybe less with a new player making mistakes).

So to use a horseracing term, my brother gets out of the gate fast. Starts winning way above accumulated EV, for the first few months. This was actually the last thing I wanted to see happen. So after 6 months, he has won like 10 grand. That is well over the projected (accumulated EV) amount of 4-5 grand.

So he wants to start spending his winnings. I tried to tell him he can only spend accumulated EV, (better to only spend a portion of accumulated EV to allow for BR growth) but just like Alan, none of this was registering. So I let him go and spend what he wanted. Part of the learning experience.

So second half of the year, he isn't winning at all. Not losing but his second half of the year is pretty flat as tends to happen for sometimes even months at a time in blackjack. I think he won just a little bit that second half of the year. Like under $1000.

So for the total year, he had won like $11,000. Above expectation or accumulated EV, but pretty close. BUT he had spend about 13-14 thousand dollars because he spent all his winning while winning above expectation. So at years end, despite winning above "accumulated EV", his bankroll was now like $7600.


Spending winnings without knowing where you are and your winnings are in relationship to expectation, is flat out a recipe for disaster. It is almost a certainty that this will lead to your bankroll disappearing at some point. This is precisely why we track expectation and accumulated EV is the vehicle for doing that.

[Bill Yung]

Gambler's fallacy is just another trick to make people believe there is a right way to gamble. In reality, all the gamblers speak a different "language". It's a language that all seem to understand but none seem to understand. You just have to get into the details to find out that they can't really agree on anything. A very odd phenomenon, but the underlying fabric of each and every gambling discussion. Disturbing.

[MisterV]

What's real entertaining is how these gaming sites and forums are always teaching everyone how to beat these places out of their money. Amazing how so many offshore gaming sites still exist with all this AP information floating around.

Do AP's succeed in plying their AP craft against offshore / internet gaming sites?

I suspect it is limited to brick and mortar casinos, but maybe not?

[regnis]

I'll give you a little example from real life experiences, but I am not going to use my numbers as for some reason, I get attacked for that.

My younger brother. This was before we became partners. His first year, I set him up with a small bankroll so he could play low stakes $5 and $10 games for experience. Not really about making money. It was part of the learning process.

So I set him up with a 10k rankroll to play red chip. I didn't track his EV precisely as I do my own or my teammates play, but for the level he was playing and the time he was putting in I estimated his EV to be roughly $800 a month. I figured his expected win for the year to be in the $8000 - $10,000 range. (maybe less with a new player making mistakes).

So to use a horseracing term, my brother gets out of the gate fast. Starts winning way above accumulated EV, for the first few months. This was actually the last thing I wanted to see happen. So after 6 months, he has won like 10 grand. That is well over the projected (accumulated EV) amount of 4-5 grand.

So he wants to start spending his winnings. I tried to tell him he can only spend accumulated EV, (better to only spend a portion of accumulated EV to allow for BR growth) but just like Alan, none of this was registering. So I let him go and spend what he wanted. Part of the learning experience.

So second half of the year, he isn't winning at all. Not losing but his second half of the year is pretty flat as tends to happen for sometimes even months at a time in blackjack. I think he won just a little bit that second half of the year. Like under $1000.

So for the total year, he had won like $11,000. Above expectation or accumulated EV, but pretty close. BUT he had spend about 13-14 thousand dollars because he spent all his winning while winning above expectation. So at years end, despite winning above "accumulated EV", his bankroll was now like $7600.


Spending winnings without knowing where you are and your winnings are in relationship to expectation, is flat out a recipe for disaster. It is almost a certainty that this will lead to your bankroll disappearing at some point. This is precisely why we track expectation and accumulated EV is the vehicle for doing that.

So then can I imply from the above that if you are out-performing EV, it doesn't change anything in the way you play. And likewise if you are under-performing the EV, nothing changes. If you are out-performing you don't pull back. And if you are under-performing you don't step it up (which would really be the gambler's fallacy).

So for someone with your experience that pretty much knows what your results should be and knows not to overspend if you're on a heater, do you really need to calculate EV?

Then I'm done--you have answered my question.

[kewlJ]

Kewl-don't lump me in with Alan here. I still have one simple question. That's all. One simple question. How does the EV effect your strategy or methodology? If it goes up, does anything change? If it goes down, does anything change?

No it does not change. It just allows you to know where you really are in relationship to expectation, because that is where you are going to end up (at expectation) in the long run or long-term.

And let me share a little story on that from my own experiences. Very early on, maybe my fourth year. I myself am playing red chip level ($10 and $15 games) with a small bankroll. Just like my brother in the above example, I get out of the gate fast. Had a couple winning months above what was expectation. I am going by memory, but I think I was like 3 times expectation after 2 months.

So, I figure a "correction" or losing period is going to happen at some point. So I decide to cut my wagers to $10 and more importantly my max bet down from what I was playing. Essentially playing a smaller spread and lower limits. I figured this would result in me losing less, during the upcoming "correction".

Well that correction never came. I continued winning for the remainder of that year. I was winning at a pace below expectation but I was winning. So at the end of the year, I looked at the figures. If I had continued playing the level that I started out I would have finished the year almost exactly spot on expectation. BUT because I had cut my wagers, waiting for that correction that never occurred, I ended up winning less. It was like 3-4 thousand less, which at that time was a big deal as I was trying to grow my bankroll to move up in stakes and that slowed that process.

So the moral of the story is...no you don't alter anything. Don't change expecting some sort of correction either up or down. The numbers will work themselves out so that in the longterm results are pretty close to expectation (assuming you are playing a sound game). But you can't force that issue. There are many ways the numbers can and will get to where they should be. But you do need to know where your results are in relationship to expectation at all times and again, "accumulated EV" is how you do that.

[Moses]

Moses, I'd like an honest answer. Kew claims to be able to count two tables simultaneously, including the one he's playing at. I rejected that type of ability for multiple sensible reasons, and the result was him and his mob here then reducing this "ability" (having no other obvious choice) to "well....what I mean is the count doesn't really have to be THAT accurate!" Which, naturally, is a very stupid response. Imagine playing at a table where you don't have a good beat on the count, yet you bet as if you do. Or, imagine jumping out of your chair and into one at the next table, just to get involved in an inaccurate count. Makes no sense.?

Rob. I've not been to Vegas for the purpose of playing blackjack. I have not seen any mirrors in the casinos in my area. I don't see how a person could possibly count two tables based on the locations of the tables in my area. Especially at Peppermill. Now there is one place when you can stand on the next floor and look down at all the tables. But I don't see how a person could get downstairs quick enough to take advantge of a positive situation. However, it's an effective way to determine pen.

I brought this "ability" to the attn. of a friend of mine last week who happens to be Dir. of Casino Operations for the Peppermill chain of casinos. He took the time to first perform examples of sitting at two side-by-side tables that were not in use. He wears glasses and I don't. The only way we could distinguish between the cards other than face cards, was if the card was held upright and still directly facing us on the closest 1/3 of the table. And this was without distractions, people in the way, cards being flat on the table, or any time restrictions..

We probably have friends/acquaintances in common. Standing O for the way they remodeled the sportsbook and got rid of the riffraff. I emloyed a 4 column count plus side counted Aces. No one said that was possible. But it was easy for me. However, when Pmill shortened pen the less effective it became.

He also has explained to and showed me the computerized system they and many casinos use to supplement "eyes" to counter counters. He said in many instances, counters are recognized--and tossed--with their info (and soon facial recognition software will be in all casinos) being shared at least statewide...

I learned my lesson years ago not to push these guys to their limits. Whatever it says in the computer is no longer the way I play the game. I play nice and tip my dealers. I'm good for biz. A poster boy, if you will.

I have no doubt that counting two tables is another silly myth. Sounds good on internet forums, but in actual casino settings, casino managers don't care a bit about it because it's irrelevant. And they tell me teams who think they can count and alert these days get tossed even faster.

I couldn't do it. I was informed by a high ranking casino manager years ago the worst thing a player can do his insult the EITS. Might even be the same guy as your friend.

So that leaves us with the tiny edge associated with counting. What's the secret....how does someone consistently defeat systems in place that I'm told cannot be defeated on a regular basis, no matter where or how many casinos are on a player's docket?

For me, it's take what they give you. They don't want everyone to lose. That wouldn't be good for biz. They MUST keep the dream alive. However, no pit boss wants his shift to get pulvarized. So it isn't a matter of what my ability can do. It's what they will let me do. I take the thresholds out of my game and focus on the advantages. It's the threshold that create the most volatility. Hence, what goes up? Must come down! I can't afford to get too far behind because catching back up makes PBs and EITS uncomfortable. So the key is not to get too far down in the first place and don't get greedy to the upside. Realize, these casino guys have been on the job for years. They are not idiots. If fact, some highly intelligent and street smart.