Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
So let's move on to your chart. I don't play poker, but I see poker and blackjack (what I do) as 2 very different things. In poker, somebody at the table has to lose! Your chart reflects such losing players. In blackjack AP, no one has to lose and in the long run, if everyone plays a strong game, there won't be losers like in your chart.
Let's take the poker stuff, first.

That chart posted by BB really says just that if your EV is less than it appears on the surface, and low enough, and, your variance with just the amount you bet is higher than you think, and high enough, then there may be a lot less difference than was initially just suspected, in the long run, between a winner's and loser's results. I conclude with the long run because what sort of loser will fight through another year of that crap, after a year of crap? Computer simulations with perfect input really have very little to do with what you will find in the casino field. Ha, the opposite is so very different with real areas of study such as engineering. You can't throw a building off the street as soon as it starts to make a little more money than you are comfortable with. That chart doesn't speak to an actual closed poker session, with someone up at the end of it.

You neglected to mention that poker has a rake. So does blackjack. I would just look to the baccarat commission on winning banker bets of 5% to compare the banker edge of 1.36% (over player) to the poker rakes of 3, 4, or 5%. The house ends up with a 1.17% edge over the banker (after the commission). The poker player requires at least a 2 percent edge.

But, I would rather play the poker, were I a professional gambler, because only one or two players lose each hand, as the antes are relatively small compared to the action, when it happens, but the whole table of blackjack experts lose more than every other hand to the house. Poker players don't really play against the house (the biggest difference), they can better control (reduce) their own variance, play against players they can consistently profit from, play much richer and more rewarding strategies (that don't lock the other player into set losses), they can come and go with much more strategic precision, etc.