Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
I should give Alan and Rob a lesson in math here.

The "long run" isn't as long as you think, when it comes to gambling.

I'll give you an example.

Take 1000 coin flips.

I take heads, you take tails, the coin is totally "fair" (even chance of landing on heads or tails), and we have a third party flipping it, so nobody can pull any shenanigans.

What do you think the chances are that you will get at least 575 tails out of the 1000 flips?

After all, the average would be 500 to 500, so it wouldn't be that hard to score 75 extra tails occasionally, right?

In reality, it's very hard. How hard?

Your chance of getting 575 tails or more is 0.00053%.

It would happen 1 out of 186,745 times.

This is why it would be wise to trust a sportsbettor who makes 57.5% correct "side" (point spread) after 1000 tries. There would only be a 1 in 186,745 chance that he managed that through luck, while it's almost 100% he did it through skill.

Getting back to Rob and video poker.

While numbers like "99% return" and "101% return" sound insignificant, they're actually not.

After a relatively small number of hands, the luck will flatten out. You can't play an extended period of time at 99% return and win, and you can't play an extended period of time at 101% (provided you're playing correctly) and lose.

Rob would be far better off stating that he took a few fluke shots at $50 and $100 machines, hit a few royals in a short time, and then returned to 25c VP using those immense winnings as a cushion. Then at least he could claim to be up money and be (kind of) believable.

But 10 years of regular or semi-regular play resulting in $1,000,000 profit?

That's as absurd as seeing 18 yos in a row. Except the difference is that I believe Alan believes he saw 18 yos in a row, but just saw something incorrectly. Rob knows he didn't win a million, but he uses it to troll APs here.
He is going to claim you can't hit a Royal Flush and Aces with a kicker flipping quarters.