Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
So RS just how much of an edge do APs have playing video poker? Please don't include things like comps and cashback because Rob Singer could also claim them.

What edge do you have that is more than the paytable? Is there any?

If you exclude comps and cashback then we are just talking about tenths of one percent, right?

My point is this:

It's just wrong to say Rob can't win playing games that are only tenths of a percent below 100% expected return. Variance alone could make up that tiny difference. And with Rob playing high denominations winning $100k a year is within his ballpark.

I doubt he could win that money at $1, $2 and even $5 VP consistently, but with $25 VP and any quad worth $3250 or more of course it's possible. Look at all the quads monet recently posted.

Also I need to say this again. I have no proof Rob won what he says he won. I'm only saying it's possible and it shouldn't be said it's impossible only because he's playing less than 100% games.
The edge can be tiny (like 0.1% or some dumb shit like that) that's not playable, something more normal/average like 2-5%, or even something huge that's like 20%+. Obviously there's discretion as far as whether it's worth it or not. I'm not too interested in something that's 10% if it's on the other side of town (or worse, out of town) if it's super limited and it's something dumb like "Get $15 in free-play after playing $100 coin in." Generally something in the 1-2% range isn't really worth it, unless you can play a bunch. And of course, things like variance have to be taken into account, how feasible it is to do, and expenses / time lost.

Of course you or Rob can "claim" stuff like cash-back, free-play, and other promotional / marketing stuff, but considering you're not making money gambling, I have a feeling you don't do it properly. Weren't you writing about how you had an offer at Caesars and MGM at the same time (that included freeplay), but instead of checking into both hotels to get both offers, you only checked in to MGM (or more specifically, Bellagio, IIRC) because you weren't planning on playing at Caesars at all, so you forego'd the offer? Generally, APs aren't beating the games outright, they're making their money from marketing and promotions and losing less on the actual machine than what they're getting back in promotional stuff. There are obviously cases where APs are beating the machines outright, like on full pay deuces wild, but you're not going to find it in a denomination high enough to make it worth it.


No actual AP claims to beat any -EV VP straight up, without promotions/marketing/etc.