Question for APs

[kewlJ]

I usually give them a number...something small like $125 or $150. Remember we are talking about a $25 minimum table so that is nothing. That would be like someone walking up to a $5 table with $20 worth of chips.

What the hell kind of baloney is this guy peddling?

What this comes down to is I play a style you are not familiar with. So I guess in your mind, it is not possible. Very similar to Alan's mentality with tracking a second table.

I don't know where you are located or where you play, but I am guessing it is not Vegas as in an earlier post today, you didn't even seem to know there where casinos in Las Vegas that are not on the Las Vegas strip. For the record there are FAR MORE casinos NOT on the strip than there are on the strip throughout Las Vegas.

So you don't know a damn thing about playing Vegas.

[Alan Mendelson]

The way casinos are marketing today I think EVERY dealer is trained to ask EVERY player for their card... especially a green chip player whether he's standing or not. They do it with $5 players. Of course they're going to do it with $25 players. It's their job. And they're being watched even if kewlj believes he's not being watched.

What's your margin of error?

[Bill Yung]

I usually give them a number...something small like $125 or $150. Remember we are talking about a $25 minimum table so that is nothing. That would be like someone walking up to a $5 table with $20 worth of chips.

What the hell kind of baloney is this guy peddling?

What this comes down to is I play a style you are not familiar with. So I guess in your mind, it is not possible. Very similar to Alan's mentality with tracking a second table.

I don't know where you are located or where you play, but I am guessing it is not Vegas as in an earlier post today, you didn't even seem to know there where casinos in Las Vegas that are not on the Las Vegas strip. For the record there are FAR MORE casinos NOT on the strip than there are on the strip throughout Las Vegas.

So you don't know a damn thing about playing Vegas.

I asked how many. You are the blackjack expert of Vegas? I didn't say there were no other casinos than the ones on the strip(s). Why is it so important that you beat around the bush?

This isn't about style of play. It's about baloney.

So let's move on to your chart. I don't play poker, but I see poker and blackjack (what I do) as 2 very different things. In poker, somebody at the table has to lose! Your chart reflects such losing players. In blackjack AP, no one has to lose and in the long run, if everyone plays a strong game, there won't be losers like in your chart.

You still haven't answered what was really my first question to you. How do you justify your words above? You're the mathematical guy too. Right? Well, enlighten us.

[Bill Yung]

If you never buy in, then that just means that you aren't losing. Which eliminates any casinos requirement to even keep track of your winnings. Or, are you claiming that they don't keep track of you photographically?

A casino doesn't know the (small) difference between, say, $450 and $500? How might a bet of $750 appear? More like $500 or more like $1,000? Voodoo science. If anything, such irregular bets are another red flag. How many players make such irregular bets over say $100? From my limited experience, 99 out of a hundred players play the same $10 or $15 dollars, the table minimum.

Yes, simulations, of course, or casino math books. Have you entered your precise strategies and adjustments into any simulator? Are there any such simulators on the market that take into account every little thing you do? You didn't really answer this question at all, and in terms of your own, admittedly, odd twists.

How many casinos aren't on the strip(s)? How many casinos would you have to go to in a day just to show your spread a few times? How on earth to play 100,000 hands a year? How many shoes is that? Around 16 shoes a day? And, you play every hand?

Yeah, it's unusual for a blackjack player to look at (to count) other players' cards, at one table, let alone the player who watches also another table. You have to look, right, to count, and, not up into a mirror on the ceiling? What are the probabilities that another table will be worth switching to? Players don't jump from table to table. The full tables tend to stay full, which means that you can't butt into one at will, either.

No, I think that it's very uncommon for one card counter to run into another who isn't just playing around, or trying to learn to count, and even more so now, with all of the casino automatic counter-measures. Even the regular players come to, within a few hours, or days, know who is counting. No big secret, for sure. Of course there are no counters like you, because what you are doing doesn't make any sense.

[Bill Yung]

The way casinos are marketing today I think EVERY dealer is trained to ask EVERY player for their card... especially a green chip player whether he's standing or not. They do it with $5 players. Of course they're going to do it with $25 players. It's their job. And they're being watched even if kewlj believes he's not being watched.

What's your margin of error?

Small limit, not much show the card stuff. Big action, they are right up your anus with bells on.

[tableplay]

No apologies bill. I like to see mickeys pictures of casinos.

Ditto. One of the best threads on here.

[pepe]

I still find machines with over 100 dollars of credits on them many times and I cash them out.

This is a bad idea. Not because of any moralfag nonsense, but someone will come looking for it, and with all the cameras in the casino, you WILL get busted, and this isn't just an 86ing offense, this is a GO TO JAIL offense.

[Moses]

Some interesting and dicey dialog between Bill and KJ.

To net $100k a year KJ would need to profit $1 per hand over the course of 100K hands. I also figured it takes about 100 hands an hour of "ass in seat time" at the table. So with KJ's style, I would think it, would take him more than 1,000 hours to reach 100k hands.

Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile. But now he will need to average $1.29 profit per hand over the next year to balance it out and get back on track.

Minimum bets hands or hands below TC 2 truncated run about 43% win 47% loss and 10% ties according to sims. Hands at TC 2 to TC 2.5 are 50.20% wins and 49.80% and represent the majority of advantage opportunities. TC 3 and above average 51.5% wins and 48.5% loss. Extreme max that occur less than 1% are the best at 53% wins and 47% loss. These figures also assume you side count for perfect insurance. Hence, there is a little box you check for that.

Obviously KJs focus is more betting opportunities at the TC 2 and up while avoiding hands below TC 2. I am not sure how that would work out on a sim from a numbers standpoint. But I would think you would need to play at least 60% hands above TC 2 and 40% below. THAT would take some doing as KJ described.

So, just for shits and grins, let's assume KJ got in all 100k hands a year in the TC 2 to 2.5 range. He bet $500 a pop AND calculated perfect insurance (worth 20%). His net profit would be $200K after one helluva wild ride. $25,100,000 in wins and 24,900,000 in losses.

I would have to go 0-13 at $2,200 a pop in the sportsbook to lose $28.6K in a week. Highly unlikely.

[Bill Yung]

Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile.

Not if he keeps pulling more chips from his pocket.

As far as I can tell, we can't really talk about the specific numbers, their variances. I still don't know how KJ's method of betting is, fundamentally, any different from the others.

Seems like he does a lot of funny things to keep his stories straight. With a lot of bullshitting in between.

[Moses]

Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile.

Not if he keeps pulling more chips from his pocket.
.

Bill. Give me $29k and I will let you play for two or three more weeks. According to Sims, it would be very difficult to win it all back that quickly. We are talking nearly 30% increase just to get it back in a year. But the pit won't see it that way. It's a "what have you done for me lately" business.

Everyone views the casino can afford to lose some money which is true to some extent. But can the guy in the pit afford to his job by letting you win too much too fast on his watch? That's the missing piece that doesn't add up for me.

[kewlJ]

Some interesting and dicey dialog between Bill and KJ.

To net $100k a year KJ would need to profit $1 per hand over the course of 100K hands. I also figured it takes about 100 hands an hour of "ass in seat time" at the table. So with KJ's style, I would think it, would take him more than 1,000 hours to reach 100k hands.

Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile. But now he will need to average $1.29 profit per hand over the next year to balance it out and get back on track.

Minimum bets hands or hands below TC 2 truncated run about 43% win 47% loss and 10% ties according to sims. Hands at TC 2 to TC 2.5 are 50.20% wins and 49.80% and represent the majority of advantage opportunities. TC 3 and above average 51.5% wins and 48.5% loss. Extreme max that occur less than 1% are the best at 53% wins and 47% loss. These figures also assume you side count for perfect insurance. Hence, there is a little box you check for that.

Obviously KJs focus is more betting opportunities at the TC 2 and up while avoiding hands below TC 2. I am not sure how that would work out on a sim from a numbers standpoint. But I would think you would need to play at least 60% hands above TC 2 and 40% below. THAT would take some doing as KJ described.

So, just for shits and grins, let's assume KJ got in all 100k hands a year in the TC 2 to 2.5 range. He bet $500 a pop AND calculated perfect insurance. His net profit would be $200K after one helluva wild ride. $25,100,000 in wins and 24,900,000 in losses.

I would have to go 0-13 at $2,200 a pop in the sportsbook to lose $28.6K in a week. Highly unlikely.

A couple comments Moses: losing $29,000 in a week was unusual and I hope it is a once in a lifetime occurrence. But it is very possible. I know because it occurred. Five figure days, winning or losing are rare for me at my level and style of play. without going to my records, I would guess I average 6 or 7 five figure winning days a year and less than 4 five figure losing days. So to have back-to-back 5 figure losing (or winning) days is very unlikely and that is exactly what occurred during this week.

Now there are some things that contributed to this, including some things that I have not shared and can only very vaguely share now. For one I have been playing a lot more this year since my partners passing. I often go out twice in a day, once during the day and a second shorter session in the evening just to fill some time so I am not sitting at home lonely and typing on VCT all night. This greatly increases the chances of both 5 figure winning and losing days. I could easily win or lose 5 or 6 thousand (which is a much more common results) twice in the same day.

Second and this is the part that I have to be careful. I have stated that I use different spreads and max bets for different situations. And they can be very different. From max bet of $300 up to max bet of $800. The larger max bets and spread are reserved for more crowed games, situations, and larger casinos that handle that action better. And playing more in prime time evening hours I am more likely to be playing these larger amounts, which can lead to larger daily wins and losses. And geez, that is really more than I wanted to say about that. I hope you can read between the lines.

One other thing I must comment on: You stated "Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile." This is 100% wrong and backwards. Winning and/or losing bigger amounts is when I am most vulnerable. It is when I am exposed. You don't win or lose bigger amounts without having shown your max bet and bet spread a lot. The very common scenario is a high count, max bet opportunity early in the shoe, with many many max bets played during that shoe. If you win a significant majority = big win. Lose a significant majority = big loss. Win/lose about 50/50 and you won't have much of a win or loss, but still will have been very exposed. That is the Danger zone for me. Danger, Danger Will Robinson!!

[kewlJ]

One other thing I want to try to explain for Alan's benefit. Back in the 1980's when I was a toddler and people like Alan were in their 50's (ok, an age shot at Alan), before personal computers and programs like Qfit's were available to players or at least most players, there was a general rule for blackjack card counting that you needed a bankroll of 100 times your max bet or top wager. Books like Wong's professional blackjack used this generic number.


100 times your max bet! Ok, so, for someone like me, playing different max bets, that is already problematic, But let's go with an average. I said recently that with all my different spreads and max bets that I thought the average was probably just below $500, so lets stay consistent and use $450 as my average max bet. 100 x $450 would be $45,000 would be the minimum bankroll needed to safely play the levels that I play (or so it was thought at the time).

Do you know why a player would need $45,000 to play my level? Because there are swings involved. Variance. Huge swings and variance. Even pre-computers they knew this from experience. It is not unusual to lose $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 during a negative swings. And since the 1980, with computers areadily available to all, and top notch software like Qfit's we have learned that 100 max bets really is not enough.

100 max bets is in the neighborhood of Full Kelly, maybe a little less and that is just too high a RoR (Risk of Ruin) for professional players. Most of us play somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 Kelly. So we now know you need a Bankroll closer to 200 x max bet or in my case $90,000. And THAT is what I use. I start every year with a $100k bankroll to withstand such swings because they DO occur. The mathematics involved says they WILL occur.

And that kind of loss occurred for me 2 weeks ago. I have never experienced that kind of loss in such a short, time, but it is within standard deviation (possibility) so you need to be prepared for it. Luckily for me, it actually came at the best possible time that such a swing can occur. I was significantly ahead for the year and significantly ahead of expectation. AND even after that nasty swing, I am still up over 100k, (now almost 110k) for the year, which if the year ended today would make this my second best ever ever from blackjack. So these comments from Alan about "how long is it going to take me to win back this loss" are just retarded. That is NOT how this works.

[Moses]

A couple comments Moses: losing $29,000 in a week was unusual and I hope it is a once in a lifetime occurrence. But it is very possible. I know because it occurred. Five figure days, winning or losing are rare for me at my level and style of play. without going to my records, I would guess I average 6 or 7 five figure winning days a year and less than 4 five figure losing days. So to have back-to-back 5 figure losing (or winning) days is very unlikely and that is exactly what occurred during this week. .

You've taken some hard shots over the years. Some even make me twitch. Yet we are not that far apart on an annual basis.

Now there are some things that contributed to this, including some things that I have not shared and can only very vaguely share now. For one I have been playing a lot more this year since my partners passing. I often go out twice in a day, once during the day and a second shorter session in the evening just to fill some time so I am not sitting at home lonely and typing on VCT all night. This greatly increases the chances of both 5 figure winning and losing days. I could easily win or lose 5 or 6 (which is a much more common results) twice in the same day.

5 figures is still a minimum of $10K. IF you lose that in one casino, I can see where you can fly under the radar. But if you win $10k just once in one casino during one shift you're probably a marked man for 25 to life.

One other thing I must comment on: You stated "Losing $29k will keep him under the radar for awhile." This is 100% wrong and backwards. Winning and/or losing bigger amounts is when I am most vulnerable. It is when I am exposed.

It's a matter of perspective. In their eyes it's bad to be good and good to be bad.
IF you lose $5k and work your way back to even, we view it as playing even. They see it as losing $5K because they already had "your" money which is now "their" money. Right now, you are good because you were bad. lol

At $500 per max bet, if you went 0-58 (nearly 12 per day), you'd lose $29k in a week. That would "knock the cheese of anyone's cracker." No?

[kewlJ]

You've taken some hard shots over the years. Some even make me twitch. Yet we are not that far apart on an annual basis.

5 figures is still a minimum of $10K. IF you lose that in one casino...

Whoa nelly. Maybe we have a mis-communication here. I never said I lost 10k in one casino in one sitting or session. I would have to double check my records, but I don't believe that has ever happened. I think I would remember that. If I have a 10k (or more) loss in a day, it is almost a guarantee that I had multiple losing sessions of 3, 4, 5 thousand dollars.

But I have won 10k at one session, most notable 20k in one shoe back in 2011. I wrote about it on two different forums, Norms and WoV. Search "perfect shoe" or "the perfect shoe". It's a pretty interesting read (I think).

A big win like that has negative consequences. If I get out that day without a back off, I still treat it like a back off and remove that property (and related properties if it was a chain) from my rotation for a cooling off period. In other words I treat it like a backoff, even if it wasn't.

I like a little blackjack chat here. It is nice for a change. But....gotta go to work. People need French fries with their burgers and those French fries aren't going to make themselves are they?

[Moses]

I like a little blackjack chat here. It is nice for a change. But....gotta go to work. People need French fries with their burgers and those French fries aren't going to make themselves are they?

Probably not. But, in time, you'll probably figure it out. "KJ, you're 10 minutes late. Yes, but the fries are already done!"

[blackhole]

Kewlj = Fairy tale (pun intended)

Fairy Tale
noun

1) a story, usually for children, about elves, hobgoblins, dragons, fairies, or other magical creatures.
2) an incredible or misleading amount of statements, accounts, or beliefs:

[Bill Yung]

So let's move on to your chart. I don't play poker, but I see poker and blackjack (what I do) as 2 very different things. In poker, somebody at the table has to lose! Your chart reflects such losing players. In blackjack AP, no one has to lose and in the long run, if everyone plays a strong game, there won't be losers like in your chart.

You still haven't answered what was really my first question to you. How do you justify your words above? You're the mathematical guy too. Right? Well, enlighten us.

[Bill Yung]

Kewlj = Fairy tale (pun intended)

Fairy Tale
noun

1) a story, usually for children, about elves, hobgoblins, dragons, fairies, or other magical creatures.
2) an incredible or misleading amount of statements, accounts, or beliefs:

= Moses.

[Bill Yung]

KJ, I have ask many questions that you have just ignored. The questions are piling up. Redietz says not answering is the answer. More baloney.

[Moses]

2) an incredible or misleading amount of statements, accounts, or beliefs:

Yet minor compared to some of the endless yarns of BS spewed on another site. The sims don't match up to the claims. Not even close. I've ran and reviewed so many Sims that people think I used to play QB for the NY Giants in the 90's.