The Singer Five

[redietz]

I'm not denigrating what you do specifically. The whole sports handicapping industry does it.

I don't get how handicappers flip odds. The only people who move lines are large bettors.

Jesus, man, you really don't know -- hell, I don't know how to describe it. If you don't understand what I said in that post, you really should not be gambling, period. The following explanation assumes you are indeed betting your own games.

Look, if you are betting whatever the hell you claim, $500 a game, and you win 55%, that's great. But if you "sell picks" on a pay-after-you-win basis, then the money you pick up from the winning picks changes the percentage you need to win to make a profit, depending on the income from the sales. So your 55%, if you have a couple dozen followers at some nominal fee, turns into the income equivalent of you hitting 57% or 58% or more.

The income from the people paying for your selections "flips the odds" because, instead of having to win 52.4% of the time (with normal juice), you can actually get by with hitting less than that for you yourself to make a profit. The added income from the paying subscribers can turn a 51% (losing) handicapper into a winning handicapper. It can theoretically turn a 48% handicapper into a profitable handicapper due to the added income from people paying you. You no longer have to win 52.4% to come out ahead. With the added income from your subscribers paying for winners, the "vig" you earn from your winners is more than the "vig" you are paying sports books with your losers.

You have become the favorite. You have "flipped the odds."

Red, when I withdraw a few thousand from my retirement savings account each month, my income goes up. The difference is, I'm not "purporting" to be a better sports bettor because of it, and I don't need other people's money to be able to say so either.

Nobody purports to be anything. Your record, as it stands, is your record. I have no idea if you even understand what I've said. Nobody loses if a winning handicapper "sells picks." The buyers benefit. The handicapper benefits because he accumulates a larger bankroll. If the handicapper is a loser, that's evident to the buyers, so that also serves a purpose. Right now, you're doing fine. If not for your parlays, anybody following you would be alright.

Your record right now is as publicly demonstrated here. The amounts wagered don't matter -- people can't amp up betting amounts and claim they've won this or that when their record is lousy. It's okay to value certain plays more than others. That's fine. But plays that are worth four or five times as much as others are best left as rare, certainly less than 10% of all plays.

Frankly, I don't need other people's money, either. That's why there's zero evidence for me ever soliciting you. It simply never happened. I haven't solicited anybody in years. You have no idea what I do or how I do it, and every time you have anything to say, it's pretty much a complete fabrication.

Good luck to you, Sixty. I actually hope you win this season. I'm always pulling for the dude who thinks he can.