Well, I plugged my Wise Guys in early, so I'll ramble a little.

The expansion of sports betting creates huge opportunities. A friend of mine, a just-retired CFO, made the kinds of salient points one would expect from a just-retired CFO. I think he was completely correct, so I have to give him credit. I had kind of realized this stuff, but he stated it in a straightforward way that emphasized it.

Basically, here's his theory. The origins of spreads today in December, 2018, are all from formulas and algorithms. These formulas just aren't that sophisticated...yet. The books just compare how the various power ratings and formulas do against each other and make judgements about which to use, which is actually how Billy Walters used to do it with his kept-separate genius squads. Anyway, the books don't really care if a particular sport or type of wager is beatable. They are relying on two things. Those two things are intertwined. The first is volume -- they lay out spreads for halves, quarters, totals -- you name it, the lines are there. The lines are simplistic -- based on history, not necessarily based on the characteristics of the teams as they exist in the now. So the lines are beatable. But the house edge is large enough that they hope the sheer volume creates profit. The second thing is -- how many people do you know who specialize?

Billy Walters had his specialists. Of course he did. What makes a person who beats college hoops think that he can beat college football? What makes an NFL totals winner think he can beat sides? Well, the answers are arrogance, stupidity, and addiction. By creating a cornucopia of betting events every single blessed night, the books hope to hook and profit from even those bettors who have a profitable niche. Halves, quarters, totals, props, player props, on and on. The books will rely on sheer volume to paper over the holes that individual players can poke in their offerings. Everybody gets hooked on the action, right? So even the winners can be turned into losers. At least that is the theory.

Now, if you are not looking to conquer the world, and if your idea of action for most of the year is to watch Agents of SHIELD on ABC, then the books are vulnerable to you. Just treat "action" like it's a bad word. I really think there are lines to be beaten, and I think when the next Billy Walters comes along to assemble teams of specialist savants, he's going to have it easier than Mr. Walters did. Nothing bad can happen when general public perception starts factoring more into line setting.

I wish I were 41 instead of 61.