Did I Miss Something? Where's Rob's Full Strategy?

[Alan Mendelson]

We are all in agreement that the theoretical hold / EV on every machine (positive or negative) inside of the casinos is a value based upon the billions or trillions of hands /spins that the RNG generates for that machine. Agreed? Well what makes you think that ANYONE could selectively play their 'short-term' number of hands within those trillions of hands and only play the ones that put you consistently ahead? Especially on the negative EV machines? You and Rob aren't arguing math? Then you and Rob are arguing that you can be luckier than everyone else.

I don't have ESP and I don't think Rob does either, but you pretty much stated it correctly right there. The expected return is based on "long term play" and if you play millions and gazillions of hands you will, in the end, get what the expected return says you will get. After all, that's what the math says.

The problem is do you play enough hands to actually see the long term?

So, if you don't play enough hands to see the long term, and if you happen to hit the right hands at the right time and get lucky, you will come out ahead of the expected return.

Or, if you don't play enough hands to see the long term, and you don't hit enough winning hands, you will come out behind of the expected return.

Rob in his books explains this as getting "lucky," and don't you agree it is a matter of luck? Unless of course you are sitting there for millions and millions of hands. Our friend Arc says he can play something like 1,000 hands per hour. Wow! I probably play 400-500 hands per hour, and I don't play as often as he does. I don't think I play 10% of the time that he does. The long term for me... and for probably 99.9% of video poker players... is a long, long, long way away.

A simple example of the significance of this is being dealt 4 to the royal. In the long run you will get the royal card 1 out of 47 times. Some people get lucky and make the four card royal more often. And then I know players who have never had a royal in their life.

I sure wish I had ESP for all of those 4 card royals that involved a flush or a straight or a high pair that I broke up trying to get the royal that "missed." If I had ESP and knew the royal card was not coming, I would have gladly kept those straights and flushes and paying pairs that I gave up and I would have more money today.