I suppose, as the "sports guy," it's my fiduciary duty to make a comment here, so I will.
I have a real difficult time when a nonchalant comment is made like "sports betting providing more income than blackjack" or something in that neighborhood. There seems to be some general public myth that doing some conscientious data mining and trend analysis can yield a modest but consistent profit across many sports consistently for years.
That is a myth. It's more likely true that absolutely religious numbers monitoring and arbitrage can yield profits, but even that is rare, and it requires 24/7 monitoring of multiple shops and offshores, using every tool at one's disposal.
There are folks who have done rigorous, massive data mining for 20 years who have probability training, programming training, and access to the best savants in the business. Very few win at one sport, much less across multiple sports for multiple years. Sports gambling is not some throwaway hobby that will yield consistent positive results if you halfway know what you're doing.
Having said that, it's possible somebody simply consults a person or team of people and uses their plays. In my admittedly dated and out-of-left-field estimate, I think roughly a hundred individuals or teams of individuals in this country can actually win long term at sports betting. Anyone who says they can do that may indeed be one of those hundred or so. And sometimes somebody or some team pops up out of nowhere (like a Chinese team of programmers going after college hoop totals a couple of years ago), and people plug into them and piggyback because all security has leaks, and the sports books go into temporary shock, but those events are quite rare.
Sports betting is not like blackjack card counting. There is no formula for success. I think suggesting there is does people a disservice, especially now that legalization is here.
If you'll notice, I tried to help Argentino when he was handicapping here. I did not say one negative thing, and I strongly suggested he can the parlays. I realize that seemed pretty weird. It's my rule. I try to help everybody against casinos vis-à-vis sports betting. If someone can do it, short or long term, more power to them. So I'm not here to get into some ego-driven pissing contest. It just must be said that winning across multiple sports long term is exceedingly difficult -- I really do not even try to do it. Roughly 80% or more of what I wager is college football, and that's counting futures in other sports. So I ask that people turn a jaded eye to throwaway lines regarding winning at sports as if it's a acquirable skill.




Reply With Quote