Dan Druff's MLB picks 2019

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, I've gotta stay on the anti Fuck Yu train.

The books are starting to get wise. Line is getting closer and closer to even money.

He's facing Trevor Richards, who has been excellent this season (and is even on my fantasy team).

The downside is that the Marlins have an astoundingly bad offense, so perhaps even Fuck Yu can shut them down.

Miami (Richards) +124 vs. Cubs (F. Yu)

[Dan Druff]

Going to fire on Miami one more time, against my better judgment. Maybe they'll finally score.

Miami (P. Lopez) +118 vs. Cubs (Quintana)

[Dan Druff]

Yankees (German) vs Kansas City (Bailey) - Under 9 -112

Bet the Yankees under live yesterday (and won) but didn't post it anywhere.

[Dan Druff]

Hit the Yankees under again yesterday.

Let's go for another.

Yankees (Sabathia) vs Kansas City (Junis) - Under 9 -120
Baltimore (Cobb) +175 vs. Minnesota (Berrios)

[Dan Druff]

Won last night's under. The Baltimore game was rained out.

I really hate betting under 7 because there's such little room to recover if things go wrong early, but I feel this is a good one:

Marlins have scored 0-1 runs in 7 of their past 10 games, and more than 3 just once.

Urena has bad numbers but pitched really well last time out, and seems generally headed in the right direction.

Washington (Scherzer) at Miami (Urena) - Under 7 -104

[Dan Druff]

Well, this is why I hate under 7. When one pitcher -- or both -- aren't sharp, as is the case today, your pick is fucked.

Game is 3-2 in the 3rd, and I'm already writing it off.

Orioles are down 6-5 in the 9th. They actually hit Berrios fairly hard. The team is hitting better as of late, and even Chris Davis somehow has his average up to .140 (which is actually fairly impressive given his 0-for-53 or whatever start.)

They're a dog in Game 2 of the doubleheader (starting shortly), and they're up against a lousy pitcher. Plus Cobb has been good this season (but is coming off a minor injury).

Baltimore (Cobb) +131 vs. Minnesota (M. Perez)

[Dan Druff]

Lost both on Saturday.

I took my usual Sunday off from MLB.

3 picks today:

Mets (Matz) -111 vs. Philadelphia (Arrieta) - Sharps high on this one

Milwaukee (Houser) at St. Louis (Flaherty) - Under 8.5 +100 - Houser killing it in the minors

White Sox (Banuelos) at Baltimore (Hess) - Under 9.5 -112

[Dan Druff]

Two overs today:

Philadelphia (Eflin) at New York (Wheeler) - Over 8.5 -119
Arizona (Weaver) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) - Over 8 -111

[Dan Druff]

Split those on Tuesday.

Today:

Cleveland (Bauer) +137 at Houston (Cole)
Angels (Cahill) +104 vs. Yankees (Tanaka)

[Dan Druff]

Won them both.

San Diego (Strahm) +190 at Washington (Scherzer)

Starts in about 10 min

Reasons to bet it:

- Strahm is actually an underrated talent and has allowed just 2 ER in his past 3 starts total (18 IP)

- Scherzer isn't himself this year, with a 4.45 ERA and 1.237 WHIP so far (he is striking people out)

- Scherzer tweaked his left intercostal on Sunday, so he may be in pain

- San Diego is 7-3 on the road, Washington is 5-7 at home

- Anthony Rendon just returned from several days injured

- Line is +190

Reason not to bet it:

- Surprisingly, sharps are NOT on this one, and the books seem to be pushing people to fire on Padres, neither of which is a great sign

[Dan Druff]

For those of you who either didn't want to take a shot at a +190 or missed it, here's one a few hours from now:

Yankees (Paxton) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) - Over 6 -110

Yes, over 6.

I don't remember the last time I saw a total of 6.

[Dan Druff]

Hit them both again, to win 4 in a row and over 5 units in the past 2 days. This breaks me almost back even.

Results:

3/29-4/1:
Underdogs: 4-3 (+1.95)
Totals: 1-0-1 (+0.95)
Favorites: 1-0 (+0.95)
Overall: 6-3-1, +3.85 units

(That was the last time I tallied the results.)

Since 4/2:

4/2:
Colorado (Freeland) +158 at Tampa (Snell) - LOST -1
4/3:
Pittsburgh (Taillon) -105 vs. St Louis (Mikolas) - LOST -1
4/4:
Cincinnati (Mahle) +103 at Pittsburgh (Lyles) - LOST -1
Atlanta (Fried) -116 vs. Cubs (Yu) - WON +0.86
Total 4/4: 1-1, -0.14
4/9:
KC (Junis) -110 vs. Seattle (Gonzales) - LOST -1
Yankees (Loaisiga) at Houston (Cole) - Under 8 -104 - LOST -1
Total 4/9: 0-2, -2.00
4/10
Minnesota (Odorizzi) +174 at Mets (Syndergaard) - LOST -1
Pittsburgh (Lyles) +161 at Cubs (Darvish) - WON +1.61
Dodgers (Maeda) at Cardinals (Flaherty) - Under 8 -110 - LOST -1
Total 4/10: 1-2, -0.39
4/11
Pittsburgh (Musgrove) +116 at Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
4/12
White Sox (Giolito) +183 at Yankees (Happ) - WON +1.83
Miami (Alcantara) +145 vs. Philadelphia (Arrieta) - LOST -1
Total 4/12: 1-1, +0.83
4/14
Miami (Urena) +136 vs. Philadelphia (Velazquez) - LOST -1
4/15
Miami (Richards) +124 vs. Cubs (F. Yu) - LOST -1
4/16
Miami (P. Lopez) +118 vs. Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
4/18
Yankees (German) vs Kansas City (Bailey) - Under 9 -112 - WON +0.89
4/19
Yankees (Sabathia) vs Kansas City (Junis) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.83
Baltimore (Cobb) +175 vs. Minnesota (Berrios) - RAINED OUT
Total 4/19: 1-0, +0.83
4/20:
Washington (Scherzer) at Miami (Urena) - Under 7 -104 - LOST -1
Baltimore (Cobb) +131 vs. Minnesota (M. Perez) - LOST -1
Total 4/20: 0-2, -2.0
4/22
Mets (Matz) -111 vs. Philadelphia (Arrieta) - WON +0.90
Milwaukee (Houser) at St. Louis (Flaherty) Under 8.5 +100 - LOST -1
White Sox (Banuelos) at Baltimore (Hess) Under 9.5 -112 - LOST -1
Total 4/22: 1-2, -1.1
4/23
Philadelphia (Eflin) at New York (Wheeler) - Over 8.5 -119 - WON +0.84
Arizona (Weaver) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) - Over 8 -111 - LOST -1
Total 4/23: 1-1, -0.16
4/25
Cleveland (Bauer) +137 at Houston (Cole) - WON +1.37
Angels (Cahill) +104 vs. Yankees (Tanaka) - WON +1.04
Total 4/25: 2-0, +2.41
4/26
San Diego (Strahm) +190 at Washington (Scherzer) - WON +1.90
Yankees (Paxton) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) - Over 6 -110 - WON +0.91
Total 4/26: 2-0, +2.81

Splits 4/2-4/26:
Underdogs: 5-9, -1.25 units
Favorites: 2-2, -0.24 units
Totals: 4-6, -2.53 units
Grand total 4/2-4/26: 11-17, -4.02 units

Season totals:
Underdogs: 9-12 (+0.70)
Totals: 5-6-1 (-1.58)
Favorites: 3-2 (+0.71)

Grand total season: 17-20-1, -0.17 units

[Dan Druff]

Starting in 10-15 min:

Texas (Minor) -106 at Seattle (Leake)

[Dan Druff]

Another win. Blowout from the beginning. 5th in a row, putting me back in the black.

Ahhh... feels good.

[Dan Druff]

After much thought, decided to fire last minute on this:

Texas (Lyyn) at Seattle (Swanson) - Under 9 -120

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday.

Today:

Chicago White Sox (Banuelos) vs. Baltimore (Means) - Under 8.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday's under by the skin of my teeth.

I've got four for you guys today, but three are starting soon:

St. Louis (Wainwright) at Washington (Anibal Sanchez) - Over 9.5 -115
San Diego (Paddack) -105 at Atlanta (Teheran)
Detroit (Turbull) +176 at Philadephia (Velazquez)
Pittsburgh (Lyles) at Texas (Sampson) - Under 11 -110

All but Pit/Tex starting at 4:05-4:10 PT.

[Dan Druff]

A few notes on today's MLB:

- Sharps are not really on any of my picks. Sometimes my picks coincide with the MLB sharps community, sometimes they don't. Today they don't.

- The Pit/Tex under is one of the rare times I am going AGAINST reverse line movement -- that is, the books are moving the line in attempt to get lopsided action on the under, which isn't a good sign. However, I still like the pick enough to make it. Keep this in mind if you are considering this one (it starts in about an hour)

- The NY/Cin game is a Trapper John MD game, in my opinion. You have the excellent-so-far Luis Castillo facing the bad Jason Vargas and yet you can get a line like -105 on Castillo and the Reds. I suspect this is a trap, but my feeling isn't strong enough to bet on the Mets, and I hate Vargas so much it's hard to lay anything on this guy, especially when he's facing someone like Castillo. But I am definitely seeing some trap signs with it, including reverse line movement.

[Dan Druff]

I had Pittsburgh under 11.

But I tried to get cute and put half on under 11 -105, and half on under 10 +138.

Felt like a genius as it was going to the 9th in a 3-0 game.

Then 3 runs in the top of the 9th ties it, and we go into extras.

Still in good shape, right?

Well, then in the 11th, Pittsburgh ran off 3 to make it 6-3.

Uh oh.

Then Texas scored one more to make it 6-4, and turn my under 10 +138 into a tie.

I had to hold my breath for the final out with a man on second, and the game ended 6-4.

But what a fucking disaster. 3-0 after 8 and I tie the under 10 portion.

[Dan Druff]

Through 4/26:
Underdogs: 9-12 (+0.70)
Totals: 5-6-1 (-1.58)
Favorites: 3-2 (+0.71)
Total: 17-20-1, -0.17 units

4/27:
Texas (Minor) -106 at Seattle (Leake) - WON +0.94

4/28:
Texas (Lyyn) at Seattle (Swanson) - Under 9 -120 - LOST -1

4/29:
Chicago White Sox (Banuelos) vs. Baltimore (Means) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.91

4/30:
St. Louis (Wainwright) at Washington (Anibal Sanchez) - Over 9.5 -115 - LOST -1
San Diego (Paddack) -105 at Atlanta (Teheran) - WON +0.95
Detroit (Turbull) +176 at Philadephia (Velazquez) - WON +1.76
Pittsburgh (Lyles) at Texas (Sampson) - Under 11 -110 - WON +0.91
Total 4/30: 3-1, +2.62

4/27-4/30 Total: 5-2, +3.47

Season totals:
Underdogs: 10-12 (+2.46)
Totals: 7-8-1 (-1.76)
Favorites: 5-2 (+2.60)

Grand total season: 22-22-1, +3.30 units