Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
Kewlj- you could be correct on most of what you say- but this is a gambling forum. We all, in one way or another grope for answers and sometimes use them for our own selfish reasons. But telling others to play on and not stop at a reasonable win has surely cost me tons of money as compared to stopping. And it doesn't hurt near as much to try a strategy and if it doesn't work simply discard it. Take the case of Neily 777 on YouTube. Yes I grasp at every REASONABLE strategy just because my wife sometimes like to play the penny machines. He has a cash me out strategy that does work. So last week he gets up to an $800 cashout and dumps it into a machine to see if he can get maybe a few hundred more. As good luck would have it, he hits the $20k jackpot. Here is where he's excited about the cash in his pocket and starts another of his strategies at mega amounts. His last words were-"well folks- that's how you toss $1,000 in a few minutes.
Slingshot, I am not a 'gambler', so it is very difficult for me to relate to most of what you say. I mean no offense by that. Gambling for entertainment within reason, within budget, is fine as a hobby activity if that is something you enjoy, as long as you keep it within what you can afford to lose. In fairness I do a tiny bit of this myself, with sportsbetting, especially during football season.... a handful of small wagers, usually televised games. But I have no delusion this is a winning activity or a +EV activity. While it is possible to bet sports at an advantage it is above my ability as it is most (think Singer 5 picks, which has failed like 4 times now).

So anyway, if gambling is your entertainment...power to you. But I do have a problem with people believing any of these voodoo concepts like stop limits, whether it is you reading Singer's nonsense, or viewing youtube nonsense, is going to change anything. You are gambling at a disadvantage and in the long run you are going to lose. PERIOD!

So you hit some sort of win target and you stop. All you are doing is preserving a temporary positive swing in variance for that day. I suppose if you never play again, you are preserving that short term variance forever, but I haven't heard anyone that employs stop limits talk a bout never playing again.

So if you are going to play again, you have changed nothing. Future losses are going to overtake that short-term positive fluctuation, whether you play your next round or spin, in 30 seconds, tomorrow or next month. IT HAS TO because you are playing a losing game (-EV). Thinking you are changing any kind of future results by strategically stopping after slight positive variance is pure nonsense. It really is. It is voodoo. There is no betting system, including stop limits that can overcome negative expectation. This is a mathematical FACT. If you are playing a -EV game, you can not win long-term. It is mathematically impossible.