question for math guys

[regnis]

Again you are wrong Alan. The math fairy will come in at night and take it all away. Or was that your wife?

[arcimede$]

The reason robki left GT is well known. He was fired. Isn't it humorous how robki says "who cares now"? He was devastated at the time. I suspect they got tired of his lies and/or some advertiser wasn't happy with the lies.

I'm still waiting for Alan to admit there is no monetary advantage based on when you quit playing on any given day. It is beyond obvious to anyone with any degree of critical thinking skills, but I can only guess why he denies proven math. It really is starting to look like an excuse to feed his desire to play.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm still waiting for Alan to admit there is no monetary advantage based on when you quit playing on any given day.

Brace yourself Arc... there is always an advantage when you quit playing on any given day either with a profit, or after losing less than you can afford to lose.

When you quit with a profit on any given day, you have that much extra money.
When you quit with a smaller loss than you can afford, you have lost less money than you could have.

Either way, you are "ahead."

Does that hurt, Arc?

[arcimede$]

Brace yourself Arc... there is always an advantage when you quit playing on any given day either with a profit, or after losing less than you can afford to lose.

When you quit with a profit on any given day, you have that much extra money.
When you quit with a smaller loss than you can afford, you have lost less money than you could have.

Either way, you are "ahead."

Does that hurt, Arc?

Not in the least. It just demonstrates your problem. You don't know if, when you were ahead, that you wouldn't have gotten more ahead had you continued to play. You even gave an example a few weeks ago where you were up $2000, kept playing, lost it all but then ended up winning something like $10K or $12K.

You also don't know if you quit with a loss limit that you wouldn't gain it all back if you continue to play.

You continue to play the "could, if, maybe" game when you don't know what would have happened. That game works both ways and every time you use to support your claims the exact same logic defeats your claims.

[jatki]

In my case after being taught to set goals before I go to a casino, I've been winning almost every trip. Not huge amounts most of the time, but even smaller wins beat losing whatever I came in with. That's a great big DUH from "the robki". The few times I've lost were just as Singer said, that one or two of the big winners were more than enough to compensate.

Alan I'll take a wild guess here and say that even if you explained to arc that my internet address is from nearby Flagstaff, Arizona and arc's nemisis is up in Northern Nevada somewhere, he'll have to claim I'm being spoonfed info from Rob, when he probably could care less about what's going on right now outside his family world up there. It's almost comical seeing how often arc needs to say bad things about Singer day in and day out just to keep his sick obsession with the man going.

[arcimede$]

Robki, we no longer care where your IP address comes from. The real jatki already confessed to copying in your comments and posting them. We don't care about your excuses. You have proven yourself to be a liar and a phony.

[Alan Mendelson]

You don't know if, when you were ahead, that you wouldn't have gotten more ahead had you continued to play. You even gave an example a few weeks ago where you were up $2000, kept playing, lost it all but then ended up winning something like $10K or $12K.

You also don't know if you quit with a loss limit that you wouldn't gain it all back if you continue to play.

You continue to play the "could, if, maybe" game when you don't know what would have happened. That game works both ways and every time you use to support your claims the exact same logic defeats your claims.

You summed it up pretty well here when you said could, if, maybe can work both ways. I don't disagree with that. No one knows what will happen on the next push of the button. You don't know on a positive expectation game if a winner is coming on the next push, and I don't know if a loser is coming on the next push on a negative expectation game. The "art" is knowing your limits and sticking to them so that you don't get sucked in by the casino environment.

Let's face it Arc, the casino wants you to sit in that seat for as long as possible -- even at your positive expectation game. You might think you have an "edge" but even you have reported losing streaks that have lasted months. Now what if (yes we are going to play the "if" card here) you did not return to the casino after that losing streak, or what if you lost your profits during that losing streak? Because the game is "random" you have no control over knowing when the winners will come along.

You might be at a game with a positive edge, but you could be the unlucky one who never gets the big winners. What if you didn't get a royal, Arc, would you still have a positive edge? Doesn't a royal contribute about 2% to the return on most games? There are players who have never gotten a royal flush in their lives. My wife's grandmother played VP for 20 years on a regular, almost weekly basis, and got one royal in her life.

What the rest of the world is telling you Arc (and redietz also) is that your math cannot guarantee us anything. We like the probabilities that the math gives us, which is why we will play the best paytables available and we will play the best, correct strategy (let's leave Rob's special plays aside here), and we will take the profits when they come and also not chase our losses.

Unfortunately Arc, if you play strictly by the math, as you describe it, you can be putting yourself in a position of chasing your losses.

You brought up an incident when I was "up $2000, kept playing, lost it all but then ended up winning something like $10K or $12K." Would you like me to tell you about all the times I was up $10k or $12k and kept playing that day and lost it all? Because there were more times when I was up $10k or $12k and lost it all, than times when I was up $2000 and lost it and then came back to win more.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan I'll take a wild guess here and say that even if you explained to arc that my internet address is from nearby Flagstaff, Arizona and arc's nemisis is up in Northern Nevada somewhere, he'll have to claim I'm being spoonfed info from Rob,

Please don't look at me for support here. I really don't know who you are. But in the past you tried to fool us and that ruined your credibility.

[arcimede$]

Let's face it Arc, the casino wants you to sit in that seat for as long as possible -- even at your positive expectation game.

Nonsense. If the casino knows you have an edge they will kick your butt out ASAP (just try counting cards ay BJ). Hey, they just suspected you had an edge at craps and kicked you out. They've also booted many advantage players at VP as well, usually by suspending player's club privileges which negated an edge.

You might think you have an "edge" but even you have reported losing streaks that have lasted months. Now what if (yes we are going to play the "if" card here) you did not return to the casino after that losing streak, or what if you lost your profits during that losing streak? Because the game is "random" you have no control over knowing when the winners will come along.

That's why a bankroll is important. It provides the means to make it through the losing streaks.

You might be at a game with a positive edge, but you could be the unlucky one who never gets the big winners. What if you didn't get a royal, Arc, would you still have a positive edge? Doesn't a royal contribute about 2% to the return on most games? There are players who have never gotten a royal flush in their lives. My wife's grandmother played VP for 20 years on a regular, almost weekly basis, and got one royal in her life.

While anything could happen, it is extremely unlikely that a person would be that unlucky. Of course, you can be just as unlucky with win goals and loss limits. You might NEVER reach a win goal again. Would you quit playing because there's a one in a billion chance of something happening?

I find it absolutely hilarious that you bring up extremely unlikely events to claim an advantage player might lose while ignoring very likely events that you might lose playing negative games.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, I wasnt talking about BJ. I was talking about video poker. Ever been kicked out for your edge?

[arcimede$]

Arc, I wasnt talking about BJ. I was talking about video poker. Ever been kicked out for your edge?

Many advantage players have had their advantage removed/reduced by cancelling player's club benefits. And yes, I've been affected by that as well. Try again.

[Alan Mendelson]

Many advantage players have had their advantage removed/reduced by cancelling player's club benefits. And yes, I've been affected by that as well. Try again.

Congratulations.

[jatki]

Please don't look at me for support here. I really don't know who you are. But in the past you tried to fool us and that ruined your credibility.

ok, and I told you when I did what and said it here too so it's no big deal. I just thought you could look up where I'm posting from like I found out I could do, then compare it to where Rob or anybody else is posting from. My point is it's always been a gas watching the theories arc comes up with whenever any of his claims are shown to be false. He's Susan Rice's twin.

[jatki]

Many advantage players have had their advantage removed/reduced by cancelling player's club benefits. And yes, I've been affected by that as well. Try again.

You see a lot of that on videopoker.com and some on vpfree. I saw one person ask one of these AP's if they or anyone who's been stopped in the benefits area could provide any kind of proof that happened to them and not every player in general and the gentleman declined. I think Alan said this best and I'll add to it, anonymous posters can say anything they want and expect others will take their word for it, and known names can claim anything they want because they'll never have to prove any of it. That's one of the reasons I respect Singer. He took pictures, videos, and made public bets of proof by putting verifiable cash on deposit first. No one else has ever come close, known or not. But the only way a AP like arc can combat that is by making up impossible scenarios and lies. Please Mr. arc, please then show us proof of what the casino did to your benefits so they could remain open.

[redietz]

I'm a consultant to high rollers and I play 25-cent video poker, so that says it all? Yeah, it does. I also play basketball, run, have two cats, watch James Bond movies, and worship Satan in my spare time. What does one have to do with the others?

For the record, last year I played roughly 30 hours of video poker. Bob Dancer is not someone I admire or even like. He's almost as much a horse's ass as "jatki."

[arcimede$]

There's not much to like about Dancer. He's as arrogant as it gets and doesn't even appear to realize it. I've also read a few accounts where he's not entirely honest if he thinks it will make him a buck. He and Singer have a lot in common. The big difference is Dancer has been successful despite his personality problems. Singer has been a complete bust as evidenced by his need to lie about his residence.

[jatki]

I'm a consultant to high rollers and I play 25-cent video poker, so that says it all? Yeah, it does. I also play basketball, run, have two cats, watch James Bond movies, and worship Satan in my spare time. What does one have to do with the others?

For the record, last year I played roughly 30 hours of video poker. Bob Dancer is not someone I admire or even like. He's almost as much a horse's ass as "jatki."

Wow that is interesting redetz and arc. I didn't know AP's could detest other AP's, you know, given all that math intellect and all. Redetz, do you think you could consult for Bob Dancer and make him successful so he can finally ride off into the sunset without coming up with wild reasons to play a slot machine for twenty hours straight? Or maybe your could step down for a little mercy work and offer to consult for arc, starting naturally with working on how to curb the lying about his obsession, then how to wean himself off that obsession, and finally how to peel and mash potatoes and how to make gravy. I see this all as a vehicle in helping you play at least dollars someday.

Full disclosure: I'm off to Idaho then Oklahoma the next few weeks to pick up a few 5th wheels and bring them to Quartzite. I did call Rob this morning who's still on vacation at Lake Tahoe with his family, and even though he didn't take his computer or smart phone along, he did give me some inspirational words for my paragraph above. He gave me a dang good joke about Kentucky Fried Chicken but I'll be a horses's ass, I just can't remember it. But seriously, Rob wasn't happy that I got involved here and he said the only good thing I'm doing is helping fill arc's time with a reason for going on. I'll take a gold star for that, yes I will. See arc, you can lie about him, lie about me, and even lie about what the math means to videopoker players. But we take care of our own.

Yesterday we all went to a tribal run casino called Bucky's. I played dollar 8/5 ddb and hit four threes dealt with a king. Tossed it and out came a two for a $780 profit. I only watched family members lose the rest of our hour and a half there. Thank you, Singer.

Happy holidays everyone, and please think of me running around America working for retirees.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yesterday we all went to a tribal run casino called Bucky's. I played dollar 8/5 ddb and hit four threes dealt with a king. Tossed it and out came a two for a $780 profit. I only watched family members lose the rest of our hour and a half there. Thank you, Singer.

Congratulations on the hit but you are not thanking Rob for your play, are you? You didn't make a "special play." In fact, you made the conventional play which is when dealt the bonus quads (2s, 3s, 4s, Aces) you discard the fifth card and try for the "kicker." You played by the book and caught the kicker. Good job.

[redietz]

Yes, "jatki," you've shown me to be nothing more than a know-nothing, quarters-playing, Singer wannabe. My goal in life, and I've never admitted this to anyone before, even in therapy, is that I want to play negative expectation dollar and five-dollar video poker. That is indeed my raison detre. So thank you for exposing me as the mathematical charlatan I really am, forced to play quarter after quarter because that's all I can truly afford.

I want to thank Alan especially for providing a forum where gambling experts like "jatki" can set people straight with their wit and unquestioned intelligence.

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually, redietz, I seriously wonder who is performing the greater disservice to readers: someone who says that video poker in casinos can be beaten through designed play (following the math or a system such as Singer's) or someone who says you have to get lucky to win?

I would hate to be responsible for anyone's losses because they thought that following any design (and this includes the "math" or Singer's system) would make them win.

People read what they want to read, so I think it is important that the caveats be included:

With Singer the caveat is that the special plays are at a mathematical disadvantage.
With the "math" the caveat is your actual results might differ from the expected results.

As long as those two caveats are understood and forefront in everyone's memory, then debating everything else such as win goals, strategy, special plays, legitimacy of machines, how RNGs really work, fifth card flipovers, etc. is all up for open debate.